Home-purchase mortgage demand ends year down 42%, back to 1996 levels

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s recent (seasonally adjusted) statistics release:

  • Total mortgage activity dropped 13.2% in the past two week
  • Mortgage applications to purchase a home dove 12.2% from two weeks earlier
  • Mortgage applications to purchase a home are down 42% year over year. That’s the lowest level since 1996.

Q. Difference between today and 2009??
A. Last time, when the crisis hit Adjustable Rate Mortgages had been hugely popular. When rates went up, people had to sell. This time ARMS are not. There will be comparatively little forced selling this time so home prices might not drop as far.
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My prediction is that people paid absolutely stupid money for homes in the past couple of years, with government money that allowed them to make large down payments. Now they have to make monthly payments and I’m guessing that just like a lot of assets that were financed, they’ll start going back to the financial institutions this year. It’s going to be the great recession that may just evolve into the great depression II?

Not a surprise considering that homes that were only worth 100K about five years ago are now selling for 450K plus. In Mississippi of all ■■■■■■■ places.

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They may. In fact, they will, but I think the relative lack of ARMs means not as many his time.

They won’t, people that own their homes:

A. Have equity, some less some more
B. Locked in lower payments, low interest rates
C. There is still not enough supply, demand is suppressed due to cost

I own 13 contiguous acres outright along with 3 electric meters, 3 postal addresses, 3 lagoons, and someday two more private wells. I paid a stupid low price for this property, even by 2013 standards.

At this rate, I’m sitting on a gold mine. :thinking:

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For what it’s worth, I just locked in a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 6.25%.

Red state, here I come!

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Damnnnnnnnnn. Congrats, but damn.

Yeah, I know. But given the fact that my property tax will be less than 1/4 what I’m paying now helps a lot.

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6.25% is low compared to where rates are going and where they are likely to stay.
Mortgage rates below 7% have never been stable. They were a “temporary” thing introduced in response to the dot.com crash and the 9-11 attacks.

So, yeah, you are fortunate to lock-in 6.25% now while you still can.
Sincere congrats.