Gun Banning Promise

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@westaussie

And that is correct. As has been pointed out that the cultural differences in Japan is a prime consideration when discussing suicides.

And to state the very obvious I said there was a reduction in suicides. Once again there is a lack of logic in your post.

In post 417 Samm decries the accuracy of the graph as it doesn’t account for other factors yet in another post he attempts to compare the US and Japan’s suicide rates. Samm trying to have it both ways.

Wrong! I did NOT compare suicides in the US with those in Japan. Again, Westaussie made a flat out claim that fewer guns result in fewer suicides. Japan, a country with a high suicide rate and very few guns, specifically rebuts that contention. His statement was general, with no reference to any specific location. My post was in direct response to that general statement. Fewer guns does NOT necessarily reduce suicides.

What are you comparing Japan to? Unless you are comparing Japan to Japan (at a different time when more/less gun ownership) then you are comparing apples to oranges BY YOUR definition.

I’m not comparing Japan to anything. The claim was made that fewer guns results in fewer suicides. Japan makes it clear that that is not the case. The high suicide rates in many other countries with strict limits on gun possession also rebut that claim.

[westaussie]

What you are saying isn’t logical.

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@westaussie

What a pity none of the post means anything.

It’s just a big attempt to distract from the trend in the graph.

Same with Samm and his “small sample size” dodge.

That’s not a dodge, it’s a fact. Small populations seriously distort rates, particularly when you are dealing with a small number of incidents. For instance, in the real life example that I presented, had even one less person died, the murder rate would have fallen from 27.27% to 23.73%. And if one more had died it would have jumped to 31.82%. The numbers are so extreme that they are completely meaningless when compared to communities with populations of hundreds of thousands or more. That is why simplistic statistical representations like the posted graph are really quite meaningless.

Samm, we are dealing with 50 states, many of which have small populations. Do any defy the trend? If you were correct we would expect to see more outliers. We don’t. You are right about the possibility of skewness but we don’t really see it. Keep in mind, this skewness could go in the other way as well.

I went to the data to check some small states to see if I could find outliers in a given year. From the checks I did, I did not find any. Here, go ahead and look for yourself…

FORWARD Platform – The leading integrated program administration solution

Asked and answered. Post #447 above.

[Samm]

The inconvenient truth.

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

I wonder what the stats would show on a county basis instead of a state one? I know my ruby red wealthy county has high gun ownership and very, very low gun crime as an example. I believe that holds true for most of the non-urban areas of my state of Ohio. Most of the violent gun crime is concentrated in the urban areas. Here are some interesting facts on that perspective.

from Murders in US very concentrated: 54% of US counties in 2014 had zero murders, 2% of counties have 51% of the murders

According to a 2013 PEW Research Center survey, the household gun ownership rate in rural areas was 2.11 times greater than in urban areas (“Why Own a Gun? Protection is Now Top Reason,” PEW Research Center, March 12, 2013). Suburban households are 28.6% more likely to own guns than urban households. Despite lower gun ownership, urban areas experience much higher murder rates. One should not put much weight on this purely “cross-sectional” evidence over one point in time and many factors determine murder rates, but it is still interesting to note that so much of the country has both very high gun ownership rates and zero murders.

Conclusion

This study shows how murders in the United States are heavily concentrated in very small areas. Few appreciate how much of the US has no murders each year. Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a very small set of urban areas, and any solution must reduce those murders.

So despite their disclaimer, the fact is, the counties with the highest rates of legal gun ownership do in fact have lower gun homicide rates and those rates are highest where we all know they are, in small sections of urban areas with relatively low legal gun ownership rates.

Which does not contradict the graph I provided for two reasons. First, the graph represents states, not counties. Second, you have switched to gun homicide rates when the graph discussed gun related fatalities.

The graph is correct, it’s just meaningless, because of the reasons zantax and I have presented you. That goes back to our discussion about statistics. They can be 100% accurate and still be used to manipulate the truth. That graph is a perfect example of that.

[Samm]

@moonshine

@Mountain_Soldier

@westaussie

Certainly there is not one single thing to do that would solve this problem. However, my point is that for some nothing should be done apart from “it’s mental health that is the problem”. I would suggest that introducing universal health care would be very useful in a myriad of ways.

Reduction in magazine capacity would be very useful as well. But if nothing is done, nothing will change.

Going to seize all the magazines that already exist?

if necessary.

lock a few gun huggers up for illegal possesion of high capacity magazines and watch how fast people get rid of them

Yeah, and we’ll l out thieves, drug pushers, muggers, murderers and rapists to make room for them in prison.

[Borgia_dude]

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@westaussie

And that is correct. As has been pointed out that the cultural differences in Japan is a prime consideration when discussing suicides.

And to state the very obvious I said there was a reduction in suicides. Once again there is a lack of logic in your post.

In post 417 Samm decries the accuracy of the graph as it doesn’t account for other factors yet in another post he attempts to compare the US and Japan’s suicide rates. Samm trying to have it both ways.

Wrong! I did NOT compare suicides in the US with those in Japan. Again, Westaussie made a flat out claim that fewer guns result in fewer suicides. Japan, a country with a high suicide rate and very few guns, specifically rebuts that contention. His statement was general, with no reference to any specific location. My post was in direct response to that general statement. Fewer guns does NOT necessarily reduce suicides.

What are you comparing Japan to? Unless you are comparing Japan to Japan (at a different time when more/less gun ownership) then you are comparing apples to oranges BY YOUR definition.

I’m not comparing Japan to anything. The claim was made that fewer guns results in fewer suicides. Japan makes it clear that that is not the case. The high suicide rates in many other countries with strict limits on gun possession also rebut that claim.

You aren’t comparing Japan to anything then you compare Japan to other countries.

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

Gun Violence Increasingly a Rural Problem, Study Finds – California Health Report

Researchers at UC Davis’ Violence Prevention Research Program evaluated more than 50,000 firearm deaths – both homicides and suicides – recorded in California counties between 2000 and 2015. At the start of the study, firearm homicide was largely an urban problem, the researchers found. But by 2015, gun murders in urban areas had dropped, resulting in similar rates in both urban and rural counties, the research showed.

The study also detected a slight uptick in suicide rates by gun since 2000, mirroring national trends. These suicides were concentrated in rural areas and among whites, the researchers discovered.

Doesn’t look good for your premise, zantax.

There are a lot more reasons than guns for suicides in rural areas. If one were to put their effort into it, they could probably find a strong correlation between factors such as economic opportunity, entertainment opportunities, sexual opportunities, matrimonial opportunity, to name a few, and the rate of suicide. But this study elected to ignore all factors except guns. That’s shoddy science pure and simple.

[Samm]

Again, what is being compared is the suicide rate in Japan to the access to guns in Japan. If the claim made regarding fewer guns leading to fewer suicides was true, Japan would have the close to the lowest suicide rate in the world. They don’t.

[Borgia_dude]

@Samm

Again, what is being compared is the suicide rate in Japan to the access to guns in Japan. If the claim made regarding fewer guns leading to fewer suicides was true, Japan would have the close to the lowest suicide rate in the world. They don’t.

Fewer guns compared to what?
Lowest suicide rate compared to what?

[Samm]

@WuWei

Suicides are irrelevant. We have a right to kill ourselves. You have no right to make it more difficult.

You can just take those numbers right out of the equation.

Perhaps you should consider banning buildings over four stories and high bridges too.

Removing one means of suicide does not remove suicides by that means “right out of the equation.” It is pathetically naive to even suggest that it does.

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

@Paul_Thomson

@Borgia_dude

gun prevalence increases in rural counties. Suicides are much higher in rura counties than urban.

So, people in the countryside are killing themselves because there are so many guns around. The prevalence of guns makes their lives not worth living? Why are people in cities killing themselves?

Who said anything about why? Nobody is discussing why.

That’s the problem with your argument … you should be. Just correlating suicides with a single factor does not give a meaningful picture of the issue.

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

Again, what is being compared is the suicide rate in Japan to the access to guns in Japan. If the claim made regarding fewer guns leading to fewer suicides was true, Japan would have the close to the lowest suicide rate in the world. They don’t.

Fewer guns compared to what?
Lowest suicide rate compared to what?

You are being obtuse. The answers to your questions have been posted at least three times.

[Borgia_dude]

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Paul_Thomson

@Borgia_dude

gun prevalence increases in rural counties. Suicides are much higher in rura counties than urban.

So, people in the countryside are killing themselves because there are so many guns around. The prevalence of guns makes their lives not worth living? Why are people in cities killing themselves?

Who said anything about why? Nobody is discussing why.

That’s the problem with your argument … you should be. Just correlating suicides with a single factor does not give a meaningful picture of the issue.

I agree a comprehensive study of causes for suicide would be interesting. I’m not sure how guns would factor into that study since nobody identifies guns as a motive.

The point of the gun study is the easy access to guns makes the means of suicide easier. In essence, guns facilitate suicide.

[SixFoot]

I love the smell of tannerite in the morning. It smells like… progress.

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Paul_Thomson

@Borgia_dude

gun prevalence increases in rural counties. Suicides are much higher in rura counties than urban.

So, people in the countryside are killing themselves because there are so many guns around. The prevalence of guns makes their lives not worth living? Why are people in cities killing themselves?

Who said anything about why? Nobody is discussing why.

That’s the problem with your argument … you should be. Just correlating suicides with a single factor does not give a meaningful picture of the issue.

I agree a comprehensive study of causes for suicide would be interesting. I’m not sure how guns would factor into that study since nobody identifies guns as a motive.

The point of the gun study is the easy access to guns makes the means of suicide easier. In essence, guns facilitate suicide.

The point of the study was to vilify guns as they relate to suicide. There is no evidence that had a gun not been available to the individuals who shot themselves that they would not have found another way.

[Striker840]

I will have to tag u a video on FB. Dude recorded it in slow motion so fast forward to 40 seconds. Check out the shockwave he caught

[Borgia_dude]

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

Again, what is being compared is the suicide rate in Japan to the access to guns in Japan. If the claim made regarding fewer guns leading to fewer suicides was true, Japan would have the close to the lowest suicide rate in the world. They don’t.

Fewer guns compared to what?
Lowest suicide rate compared to what?

You are being obtuse. The answers to your questions have been posted at least three times.

You said you weren’t comparing Japan to anything yet it is clear you are comparing Japan’s suicide and gun ownership rates to the rest of the world.

And I pointed out the error there due to Japan’s history of honorable suicide. You yourself have pointed out the problems comparing rural to urban. Do you not recognize the larger problem of comparing across countries with vastly different cultures?

[SixFoot]

Beautifully done with the shock wave too.

[Borgia_dude]

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Paul_Thomson

@Borgia_dude

gun prevalence increases in rural counties. Suicides are much higher in rura counties than urban.

So, people in the countryside are killing themselves because there are so many guns around. The prevalence of guns makes their lives not worth living? Why are people in cities killing themselves?

Who said anything about why? Nobody is discussing why.

That’s the problem with your argument … you should be. Just correlating suicides with a single factor does not give a meaningful picture of the issue.

I agree a comprehensive study of causes for suicide would be interesting. I’m not sure how guns would factor into that study since nobody identifies guns as a motive.

The point of the gun study is the easy access to guns makes the means of suicide easier. In essence, guns facilitate suicide.

The point of the study was to vilify guns as they relate to suicide. There is no evidence that had a gun not been available to the individuals who shot themselves that they would not have found another way.

Your opinion is noted.