Guess the Ukaraine russian conflict is not going too well much to the chagrin of the western cheerleaders and warhawks. I feel really bad for the people
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Geewhiz, it’s almost as if money doesn’t make the soldier. Maybe we should throw more money at it. 
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When was the last time an IED was used in Ukraine? Have any been used?
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All together now…stalemate…cease fire now!
All together now…stalemate…cease fire now!
All together now…stalemate…cease fire now!
Russia fought a 14 year war in Afghanistan (and lost).
Russia fought a 12 year war in Chechnya (and won).
Russian involvement in the Syrian civil war may or may not constitute a “Russian war” but they’ve been militarily involved there for 7 years ten months
. . . . and it seems to me our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq lasted pretty long too.
There is a new kind of war.
No more trenches (like WW1 WW2 and Korea)
No more sudden victories (like Iraq 1)
Either we accept that and learn to respond, or we give carte blanche “take anything you want” permission to the countries that do.
I agree with most of that but i think the trenches combined with mining is what’s created the issue now for Ukraine.
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It may yet turn out that WW1 is the best template for the Ukraine war.
Years and years of trench warfare.
The three major Allied victories were (very) militarily significant but in the end the German economy couldn’t keep fighting. Hunger became a serious health issue both in the field and on the homefront.
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Ukraine is not giving what they want.
It is time to end the killing and that is where the focus needs to be.
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Agreed.
the focus should be on what sanctions do we impose on Russia after they have withdrawn.
- Reparations?
- Demilitarization?
- No fly zone inside Russia within 200 miles of Ukraine?
- Do we make them give up their WMDs?
I’m thinking yes to the first two but no to the last two
10% of Russian GDP as reparations.
Complete demilitarization.
After WW1
The German army was diminished to 100,000 men and the country was forbidden to draft soldiers. Its weapons were largely confiscated, and its navy stripped of large vessels.
Use that as a template.
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Let’s begin negotiating
Should Putin be free to choose the country to which he is exiled after the war?
Or should the allies choose it for him?
the treaty of Versailles didnt work out too well for the world at large.
i like the idea of a dmz between ukraine and russia.
Allan
Yeah, the economic sanctions of Versailles hurt the German economy and led directly to WW2. (8-10% of German pre-war economy as reparations.) their economy was a wreck. Hunger was a public health crisis. People were literally dying of malnutrition-related diseases
Future reparations should DEFINITELY be based on post war economy.
Personally I would like to see negotiations begin AFTER Russia withdraws . . . but a temporary ceasefire while they withdraw is okay too.
There are still some Ukrainians alive in Ukraine. The war must go on!
The defeated don’t set the terms of surrender.
NATO has already lost this war. The sooner we recognize that the better for everyone, especially the Ukrainians.
Yes, a stalemate that lasts for years is a coping mechanism after the glorious Ukrainian offensive has proven to be a neocon fantasy.
The problem with a stalemate narrative is that a stalemate requires two more-or-less evenly matched armies. In the current war, Ukraine has exhausted the available stocks of weapons even after the US raided stockpiles in Israel and South Korea. In addition, Ukraine is rapidly running out of trained troops as actual casualties are many times the optimistic figures seen in western media.
Ukraine can’t sustain a stalemate, and Russia has every incentive to continue the war until it can achieve its stated objectives. The most likely scenario is an eventual Ukrainian collapse with peace terms dictated from Moscow.
You’re dreaming my friend…
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One does not open negotiations with the “the middle” he thinks will ultimately be agreed upon.
Ukraine lost 20% of its GDP immediately and countless roads and factories in bridges in aras Russia does not even claim as its territory.
If Russia thinks it is getting its frozen assets back after the war it is dreaming.
It’s really a question of post-war reparations vs. what kind of sanctions will Russia face after the war.
Russia will not get its frozen assets back.
After it withdraws some sanctions can be lifted if it pays reparations
EX
- Instead of an outright ban on certain Russian imports, a 10% tariff.
- Russia can once again insure its ships and pipelines with Western insurers IF it pays a 20% surcharge on insurance premiums.
- Russia will once again get access to international currency exchanges if . . .
- Russian rubles will once again be accepted if . . .
Chalk up another one where we are all enthusiastic to fight to victory, keep throwing in our assets, a must win if civilization is to survive, doesn’t end nicely and on time like we wanted, we get bored with it, it is too costly, we back out of it and learn nothing. Rinse and repeat.
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In a BIPARTISAN effort.
you’re assuming that Russia wants to start trading with Europe and United states again. In fact I’ll go as far to say if Europe wants Russia raw materials they will have to submit to Russia…otherwise Russia has no need or desire to deal with western nations.
Longer this war goes on the more Russia carves out it’s own market with China, India etc.
So if west wants to deal with Russia…it will be on Russia terms and not the west…and that includes unfreezing Russian assets.
For the record…Russian economy is much stronger than expected. And longer this goes on stronger Russian economy will be without the west.
The west needs Russia resources more than Russia needs the west. And those are the facts.
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