Posted from the April thread:
Let’s compare revenues between FY2017 to FY2018:
Oct 17: 235,341 | Oct 18: 221,692 | Diff: 13,649
Nov 17: 208,374 | Oct 18: 199,875 | Diff: 8,499
Dec 17: 325,797 | Oct 18: 319,204 | Diff: 6,593
Jan 18: 361,038 | Oct 18: 344,069 | Diff: 16,969
Feb 18: 155,623 | Oct 18: 171,713 | Diff: -16,090 <- New withholding tables kick in
Mar 18: 210,832 | Oct 18: 216,584 | Diff: -5,752
Apr 18: 510,447 | Oct 18: 455,605 | Diff: 54,842 <- Final tax payments received. As the CBO puts it: "The bulk of that difference stems from larger-than-anticipated payments of individual income taxes. Those payments were mostly related to economic activity in 2017 and may reflect stronger-than-expected income growth in that year.
May 18: 217,000 | Oct 18: 240,418 | Diff: -23,418
So, what we have here is initially a trend to receive increasing revenues from the year before. Then, the new tax law kicks in and the updated withholding tables are implemented in February. From that point on, receipts for this CY start to decrease compared to the previous CY. The only jump is in April and that’s due to final tax receipts due to economic activity in 2017. Basically, are increased revenues compared to the previous year are started to get smaller and smaller and may very well be under revenue levels of FY2017 by September despite the increase in economic activity. It will be interesting to see if June’s numbers continue this trend.