The United States Treasury collected a record-breaking amount of personal income taxes in May; smashing estimates during the first eight months of the 2018 Fiscal Year with no signs of slowing down.
It says record revenues IN May when the article is actually referencing the cumulative revenue totals THROUGH May.
Revenues were down IN May.
Revenues THROUGH May include October 2017 on, a period which is largely affected by the previous tax rates since people are paying their 2017 taxes through April 2018.
Indeed, the records revenues are mainly due to receipts from strong payrolls in CY2017, unaffected by the new tax law. If you actually look at the comparisons from the previous year, each month we get deeper into the new withholding tables kicking in under the new tax law, the receipts are worse than the previous year. And this is with the bestest economy ever. What gives?
Letâs compare revenues between FY2017 to FY2018:
(In millions)
Oct 17: 235,341 | Oct 18: 221,692 | Diff: 13,649
Nov 17: 208,374 | Oct 18: 199,875 | Diff: 8,499
Dec 17: 325,797 | Oct 18: 319,204 | Diff: 6,593
Jan 18: 361,038 | Oct 18: 344,069 | Diff: 16,969
Feb 18: 155,623 | Oct 18: 171,713 | Diff: -16,090 â New withholding tables kick in
Mar 18: 210,832 | Oct 18: 216,584 | Diff: -5,752
Apr 18: 510,447 | Oct 18: 455,605 | Diff: 54,842 â Final tax payments received. As the CBO puts it: "The bulk of that difference stems from larger-than-anticipated payments of individual income taxes. Those payments were mostly related to economic activity in 2017 and may reflect stronger-than-expected income growth in that year.
May 18: 217,000 | Oct 18: 240,418 | Diff: -23,418
So, what we have here is initially a trend to receive increasing revenues from the year before. Then, the new tax law kicks in and the updated withholding tables are implemented in February. From that point on, receipts for this CY start to decrease compared to the previous CY. The only jump is in April and thatâs due to final tax receipts due to economic activity in 2017. Basically, are increased revenues compared to the previous year are started to get smaller and smaller and may very well be under revenue levels of FY2017 by September despite the increase in economic activity. It will be interesting to see if Juneâs numbers continue this trend.