Good News!? March Jobs Report

Impenitent · 2023-10-06T15:27:25.925Z

buying less oil with more dollars…

WuWei · 2023-10-06T16:08:57.745Z

Does that count the illegals?

WuWei · 2023-10-06T16:09:27.485Z

Which is comparable?

biggestal99 · 2023-10-06T21:19:47.170Z

WuWei:

Does that count the illegals?

unsure. i will contact BLS.

Allan

Gaius · 2023-10-07T10:49:23.782Z

mobiusptc:

how does US inflation compare to worlwide economies?

Just in case that is not a rhetorical question:
Historically US inflation has always been low.
(currently 3.7% in US vs 4.3% in Euro area)
The math is (was??) that

10% required bank reserves (now gone)
plus, basic interest>basic CPI
equals low inflation.

In simple terms
When interest>CPI, a person “wins” buy keeping money in the bank and buying a refrigerator or computer or whatever next year.
When CPI>interest, a person “wins” buy hurrying to buy a refrigerator, a computer or whatever before prices go up.

Because the American economy includes a LOT of energy and LOT of debt the key condition, (interest>CPI) can be difficult to maintain, but so far so good eh?

Gaius · 2023-10-07T11:38:57.207Z

biggestal99:

and the hits keep on coming 336,000 jobs created in September 2023.

who knew?

Allan

Couple of interesting footnotes to that.
The BLS Monthly “Employment Situation Summary” is compiled from two surveys

‘A’ is the Household Survey which tells us how many people are in the labor force and a LOT of other data. This is where we get the Unemployment Rate (unchanged in Sept at 3.8%)
‘B’ is the Establishment Survey which tells us how many jobs employers added or subtracted each month. This is where we get the "Jobs Created’ number each month.

However,

.
.
.
.
Footnote #1

I keep reading that post pandemic the two surveys do not mirror each other as well as they used to.

In fact, employers report adding 336,000 new jobs, but only 86,000 additional people report being employed. The difference is 250,000. That is not a small number. That is not a minor “statistical blip between two surveys.” It is in fact 75% of the new jobs added.

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.
And the 250,000-job discrepancy has exactly two sources

People working 2 jobs
Illegals immigrants, especially new-entrants to the US, are far less likely to be surveyed in the household survey.

Yes 336,000 new jobs added to the US economy
But
a whopping 250,000 of those jobs (75%) were filled by some combination of Illegal immigrants and Americans who are financially on their asses and have taken on a second job just to make ends meet.

Interesting huh?

Gaius · 2023-10-07T12:12:04.609Z

WuWei:

Does that count the illegals?

Yes. the 336,000 number does count illegals.
It comes from a survey of employers.

The 336,000 number comes from the BLS monthly “Employment Situation Summary” which also includes a second survey. The second survey surveys households, and is used to determine the unemployment rate. (Afterall, how can you report an unemployment rate unless you know who many people are looking for jobs, right.)

This month the two surveys show a remarkably large discrepancy.
This month the discrepancy between the two surveys is a full 75%.
(Wow! That’s a big discrepancy)
That discrepancy indicates there is a larger-than-usual number of illegal immigrants employed and/or a larger-than-usual number of persons working multiple jobs.

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Gaius · 2023-10-07T13:18:14.743Z

biggestal99:

and the hits keep on coming 336,000 jobs created in September 2023.

who knew?

What does this mean?
Can you explain the part in red?

It looks to me like the number of people employed full-time went down.
Am I reading that wrong?

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biggestal99 · 2023-10-07T13:32:39.499Z

Gaius:

It looks to me like the number of people employed full-time went down.
Am I reading that wrong?

so the 336,000 are all part time jobs.

highly unlikely.

Allan

Gaius · 2023-10-07T14:00:57.998Z

No that is not what I said. (Strawman)
I said there is a discrepancy of 250,000 jobs (75%) between the two surveys.
(both of which are compiles by BLS and included in the same BLS report)

I said the 250,000 job discrepancy . . .

Well, here, here is my quote:

Gaius:

And the 250,000-job discrepancy has exactly two sources

People working 2 jobs

Illegals immigrants, especially new-entrants to the US, are far less likely to be surveyed in the household survey.

Yes 336,000 new jobs added to the US economy
But
a whopping 250,000 of those jobs (75%) were filled by some combination of Illegal immigrants and Americans who are financially on their asses and have taken on a second job just to make ends meet.

It works this way

image2000×1065 483 KB

See for yourself
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

Gaius · 2023-10-07T15:24:13.086Z

Hmm, anyone else see a pattern here?

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biggestal99 · 2023-10-08T18:44:13.850Z

Gaius:

I said there is a discrepancy of 250,000 jobs (75%) between the two surveys.

so basically you use a data set outside of the govt announcement of job growth.

Allan

DougBH · 2023-10-08T19:04:58.795Z

Politically, people know whether they feel they are better off. Statistical information is good for studying and planning, probably not so important when it comes to voting.

Gaius · 2023-10-08T19:21:30.074Z

Wrong again.

BLS does the two surveys every month.
Every month BKS publishes tge sane twi surveys side-by-side.
Every month there is a stastical discrepancy between the two surveys (commonly attributed to oeople working multiple jobs and to illegal immigrants.)

Recently the discrepancy has been growing (a lot.)
This month the discrepancy between the two surveys was a WHOPPING 250,000 jobs.

Either BLS is a bunch of high school pikers and should be shut down, or there has been a steady increase in the # of illegal immigrants and/or people working 2 jobs.

Which do you think it is?
The academic economists all seem to think it is the second one.

WuWei · 2023-10-08T20:20:10.345Z

Gaius · 2023-10-09T02:49:32.654Z

biggestal99:

outside of the govt

Speaking of outside of the government:
It turns out that one-third of the jobs created in Sept were either government jobs
or social service jobs (mostly government contractors providing social services)

And one-third of the total jobs created in Sept were in leisure and hospitality.
Would you like fries with that?

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biggestal99 · 2023-10-10T15:48:18.942Z

Gaius:

And one-third of the total jobs created in Sept were in leisure and hospitality.

it looks like it is that way every month.

Allan

BlueHeron · 2023-10-10T16:11:53.945Z

Leisure and hospitality industries have been growing steadily for decades. Years ago, going out for a family dinner was a rare treat. Today, almost everyone patronizes fast-food or take out restaurants.

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Gaius · 2023-10-10T16:14:58.831Z

biggestal99:

Gaius:

And one-third of the total jobs created in Sept were in leisure and hospitality.

it looks like it is that way every month.

Allan

Retail MIGHT* be in some sort of return to pre-pandemic norm (I’d have to check that hypothesis) but currently 10% of the work force works in leisure and hospitality but a whopping ~30% of new jobs last month (and the month before and the month before) were in that sector.

If it is not a return to an earlier norm, then it is a very disturbing (new) trend.

Gaius · 2023-10-22T02:44:22.715Z

Gaius:

biggestal99:

and the hits keep on coming 336,000 jobs created in September 2023.

who knew?

Allan

Couple of interesting footnotes to that.
The BLS Monthly “Employment Situation Summary” is compiled from two surveys

‘A’ is the Household Survey which tells us how many people are in the labor force and a LOT of other data. This is where we get the Unemployment Rate (unchanged in Sept at 3.8%)

‘B’ is the Establishment Survey which tells us how many jobs employers added or subtracted each month. This is where we get the "Jobs Created’ number each month.

However,

.
.
.
.
Footnote #1

I keep reading that post pandemic the two surveys do not mirror each other as well as they used to.

In fact, employers report adding 336,000 new jobs, but only 86,000 additional people report being employed. The difference is 250,000. That is not a small number. That is not a minor “statistical blip between two surveys.” It is in fact 75% of the new jobs added.

image1212×501 57.2 KB

image1011×775 71.9 KB

.
And the 250,000-job discrepancy has exactly two sources

People working 2 jobs

Illegals immigrants, especially new-entrants to the US, are far less likely to be surveyed in the household survey.

Yes 336,000 new jobs added to the US economy
But
a whopping 250,000 of those jobs (75%) were filled by some combination of Illegal immigrants and Americans who are financially on their asses and have taken on a second job just to make ends meet.

Interesting huh?

image900×620 61.5 KB

Free version of the Fortune article here:

From the article:

Study after study this year has found that more Gen Zers and millennials, faced with high economic uncertainty and financial anxiety, have been picking up extra gigs in order to make ends meet. A new analysis from Bank of America adds weight to the narrative, but finds that these side hustles aren’t really cutting it.