Good News!? April Jobs 263k

WuWei · 2019-05-03T18:50:04.410Z

Chris:

The National debt is now at $22.26 trillion. It has increased by about 11.5% since Trump became President. But we are not supposed to be concerned about the National debt anymore.

It’s a debt-based economy.

party-free · 2019-05-03T18:51:46.373Z

Yeah, I toured some of those factories,…$12/hour for a welder, or working fabrication machinery in a factory, just seems like so little.

These are important, and high-skill, and sometimes dangerous, trade jobs, and the only reason some of these people can make it by is because the cost of living isn’t terribly outrageous.

But it would be incredibly difficult to try to support a family with what is considered a “real” job.

“real jobs” are going to have to start paying more or people aren’t going to do the work.

matt1618 · 2019-05-03T19:10:21.166Z

adroit:

Oh, and that 2017 GDP? Beat by 2014 and 2015. The 2018 GDP? Beat by 2015.

That is disingenuous to say the least. You are comparing the first year of Trump, which is actually the remainder of Obamas term, as full credit to Trump. Okay, you know the equivalence of 2017 is 2009. The first year of Trump 2017 was 2.2 gdp growth. 2009 was the first year of Obama -2.2 gdp, horribly lousy. So the equivalent is a Trump growth of 2.2 compared to -2.2 of Obama, Trump up 4.4. Now, if you say, well, that is all Bush’s fault in 2009, that Obama’s first year was minus 2.2, forget those numbers, then it is faulty to make that comparison. then that 2.2 growth is all Obama, not Trump. If it is Trumps first year of 2.2 of 2017 then you blame Obama for the -2.2 of 2009. Bad Obama. Still .6 better than Obama’s 1.6. If -2.2 of 2009 is all Bush’s fault and you must put 2017 as Obama’s last year, then fine, you must put the low 2.2 number in 2017 as Obama’s last year. Either way, Trumps numbers are better than Obama. If you count 2016 as Obama’s last year, then Trump jumped it from Obama 1.6 Obama 2016 to Trump 2017 2.2. Trump up by .6. and it went up to 2.9. Advantage Trump. If you put 2017 as Obama’s last year of 2.2 (and only then can you say he wasn’t at fault for the 2009 gdp -2.2, the first year is a .7 growth from 2.2 to 2.9. So Obama 2014 2.5, 2015, 2.9, 2016, 1.6 and 2017, 2.2 Obama. Trump first year 2018, 2.9 = equals Obama’s best, better than 7 out of 8 Obama years if you frame it either way, from 2009 to 2016, or 2010 to 2017. And either way, Trump exceeds Obama’s GDP growth. Of course after 8 years, 2016 was 1.6 or 2.2 in 2017, which was Obama in full force.

adroit · 2019-05-03T19:18:23.667Z

matt1618:

And either way, Trump exceeds Obama’s GDP growth. Of course after 8 years, 2016 was 1.6 which was Obama in full force.

Trump exceeds Obama’s GDP growth? He has yet to top Obama’s best year. He was handed an economy near full employment, passed deficit fueled tax-cuts, increased spending, and we’re told cut more regulations than any other president.

And he has yet to best Obama’s top year.

He’s added fewer jobs than the preceding period before Obama.

Annualized S&P 500 returns are lower than under Obama.

The rate of increase in real median weekly earnings in the last 9 quarters is lower than under the preceding 9 quarters.

But hey, the Obama economy was the worst economy ever. Thank God Trump saved us from that horrible mess. By not exceeding Obama’s best numbers?

Like I’ve said, Trump’s results are good. Then again, I said the same thing of Obama’s results. Except now, we’ve handicapped ourselves come the next downturn.

matt1618 · 2019-05-03T19:41:45.220Z

I guess you don’t want to look at the numbers. 2.9 equals Obamas best. So Obama never exceeded, he had 8 years, only one of them was 2.9, that is not ‘exceeding’ anything. If you count 2017 as Trumps first year that is a 2.2 growth, that far exceeds Obama’s minus, I say minus 2.5 in 2009. Trump better by 4.7 in the first year. If you say it is all Bushs fault in 2009, and it doesn’t really count for Obama, then that 2017 figure is an Obama figure of 2.2. Then the first year of Trump either way exceeds Obama. If you say Bush is the cause of the fall in 2009, and it only starts for Obama in 2010, then Trump only starts in 2018, which is 2.9 exceeds Obama in 7 of those 8 years and equals his best. If you say Trump started in 2017 or 2018, he jumped it. .6 going from 2016 to 2017, and if not, it is an additional jump from 2017 of 2.2 to 2.9. He was handed a 1.6 GDP growth if you see Obama ending in 2016, Trump jumpted it from 1.6 to 2.2 If you see Obama ending in 2017 with 2.2, it jumped an additional .7. Either way, if it is seen as two years, Trump jumped it from 1.6 to 2.9. If it is seen as one year, he jumped it from 2.2 to 2.9.

The Balance

An Annual Review of the U.S. Economy Since 1929

U.S gross domestic product by year measures the yearly output of the U.S. economy since the Great Depression. The GDP changes based on fiscal and monetary policy.

2009	$14.449	$15.209	-2.5%	Stimulus Act.
2010	$14.992	$15.599	2.6%	ACA. Dodd-Frank.
2011	$15.543	$15.841	1.6%	Japan earthquake.
2012	$16.197	$16.197	2.2%	Fiscal cliff.
2013	$16.785	$16.495	1.8%	Sequestration.
2014	$17.522	$16.900	2.5%	QE ends.
2015	$18.219	$17.387	2.9%	TPP. Iran deal.
2016	$18.707	$17.659	1.6%	Presidential race.
2017	$19.485	$18.051	2.2%	Trump Tax Act.
2018	$20.494	$18.566	2.9%	Deficit spending.

adroit · 2019-05-03T19:52:22.591Z

matt1618:

I guess you don’t want to look at the numbers. 2.9 equals Obamas best.

No, I actually look at the numbers.

The GDP for 2015 was 2.881.
The GDP for 2018 was 2.852.

Trump, with all the momentum, deregulation and deficit fueled tax cuts behind him, could not best Obama’s best year.

For the love of God, use paragraphs.

matt1618 · 2019-05-03T20:06:03.078Z

2.88 as opposed to 2.85? Come on you are going to minute detail. It is the same, a very minute number higher, no one is giving 3 decimals after the whole number when they give the numbers. It equals that, we are not going by the infitestimal fractions. Going by fractions don’t help you one way or the other with the other 7 years either way you look at it. He was handed 1.6 if you go by that as Obama’s last year. He was handed 2.2 if you go by 2017 last year, either way he has increased it significantly from where it was at.

adroit · 2019-05-03T21:10:37.972Z

matt1618:

2.88 as opposed to 2.85? Come on you are going to minute detail. It is the same, a very minute number higher, no one is giving 3 decimals after the whole number when they give the numbers. It equals that, we are not going by the infitestimal fractions. Going by fractions don’t help you one way or the other with the other 7 years either way you look at it. He was handed 1.6 if you go by that as Obama’s last year. He was handed 2.2 if you go by 2017 last year, either way he has increased it significantly from where it was at.

The fact still remains: Trump’s best year can’t best Obama’s best year. Sad.

Annualized S&P 500 returns under Trump can’t best Obama’s annualized returns. Sad.

Jobs added under Trump’s 28 months can’t best jobs added in prior 28 months. Sad

Rate of increase in real median weekly earnings in first 9 quarters of Trump can’t best the previous 9 quarters. Sad.

But hey, it’s the best economy perhaps in all of history.

matt1618 · 2019-05-03T22:18:34.474Z

Only going by infitinestmal fractions, otherwise it is equal to his best and it is better than 7 of Obama’s years. Stock Market is fine with Trump highest ever numbers.

Wage growth has been significant under Trump. Last quarter, 2018, first wage increase in 10 years of 3%, 10 years, oh, that is before Obama.

CNBC – 31 Jan 19

Worker wage gains just broke 3% for the first time in more than 10 years

The Employment Cost Index, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases quarterly, showed a 3.1 percent gain in the wages and salaries component in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Wages and salaries for American workers rose 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the government’s Employment Cost Index.
That’s the biggest gain since the third quarter of 2008, just as the worst of the financial crisis hit.

What about this year?

U.S. wage growth rebounded in March following a sluggish start to the year with lower wage workers seeing the highest gains, according to the Glassdoor March Local Pay Report released Tuesday.

Oh, so it is the lowest wage earners who are doing better. Hmm, that is not what you said.

ImRightYoureWrong · 2019-05-03T22:55:43.612Z

Great chart

ImRightYoureWrong · 2019-05-03T22:56:38.083Z

CaughtInTheMiddle:

That’s not really the story that consumers get from Republican media. It’s no wonder that we hear something totally different here each day.

They definitely dont get the $1trillion deficits and 2009 levels of spending at full employment story

CaughtInTheMiddle · 2019-05-03T23:31:26.860Z

ImRightYoureWrong:

CaughtInTheMiddle:

That’s not really the story that consumers get from Republican media. It’s no wonder that we hear something totally different here each day.

They definitely dont get the $1trillion deficits and 2009 levels of spending at full employment story

It would be harder for them to win the next election if they get the full story.

WuWei · 2019-05-03T23:33:58.451Z

party-free:

…$12/hour for a welder

party-free · 2019-05-04T00:34:43.012Z

What’s funny about that?

WuWei · 2019-05-04T00:40:07.992Z

party-free:

What’s funny about that?

Where in the hell did you see a $12 an hour welder? You can’t get a firewatch for $12 an hour.

party-free · 2019-05-04T01:26:32.809Z

At the local factory we toured a few weeks ago. They directly told us they start at $12.

We do this every now and then to make sure we’re able to inform students of local vocational opportunities.

The average welder in my state makes $16. And I still find that pretty low. Average salary nation wide is 36k. Cant support a family on that.

WuWei · 2019-05-04T01:27:35.199Z

party-free:

At the local factory we toured a few weeks ago.

We do this every now and then to make sure we’re able to inform students of local vocational opportunities.

The average welder in my state makes $16. And I still find that pretty low. Average salary nation wide is 36k. Cant support a family on that.

What state?

party-free · 2019-05-04T01:35:10.642Z

TN.

Stats for welder salaries are an easy Google search. Even nationally, they’re just not making much, IMO.

Manufacturing pay isnt keeping up.

WuWei · 2019-05-04T01:45:43.937Z

party-free:

TN.

Stats for welder salaries are an easy Google search. Even nationally, they’re just not making much, IMO.

Manufacturing pay isnt keeping up.

Move. Like I said, you can’t get a firewatch around here for $12 an hour. In fact, I haven’t heard of a $12 welder for decades.

WuWei · 2019-05-04T01:47:18.387Z

party-free:

TN.

Stats for welder salaries are an easy Google search. Even nationally, they’re just not making much, IMO.

Manufacturing pay isnt keeping up.

90th percentile welder pay is $57k. They aren’t counting overtime.