Good News? 4th Quarter GDP up 3.3%

[Ben_Natuf]

@tnt

a healthy GDP - not to slow, not to fast - is between 2-3%.

myth. it can be 10% if production can keep up with demand

[Samm]

@tnt

@Samm

@biggestal99

the best ecomony needs growth between 2 and 3%

not too low not too high.

the ecomony is slightly overheated.

but as you point out it is slowing back to perfect.

Nope. You’re thinking of the desired inflation rate …

Google ‘ideal GDP growth’ and report back.

Okay … Here is the first thing that came up:

“For a developed economy, an annual GDP growth rate of 2%-3% is considered normal.”

It does not say “desired” it says “normal.”

Economic Growth Rate

[biggestal99]

@Samm

Okay … Here is the first thing that came up:

“For a developed economy, an annual GDP growth rate of 2%-3% is considered normal.”

It does not say “desired” it says “normal.”

trumps first three years were normal.

didnt hear any complaints then about the economy.

only good things.

then when biden was elected suddenly it switched

wonder why?

Allan

[Gaius]

@biggestal99

@Samm

Okay … Here is the first thing that came up:

“For a developed economy, an annual GDP growth rate of 2%-3% is considered normal.”

It does not say “desired” it says “normal.”

trumps first three years were normal.

didnt hear any complaints then about the economy.

only good things.

then when biden was elected suddenly it switched

wonder why?

Allan

I can only speak for myself in saying
1 I have never considered Trump a conservative
2 I never felt the US economy reached its potential under Trump
3 I felt then and feel now that the US economy (then) was weakened both by his predecessors and by his failure to rein-in spending
4 That the US economy was in decline by midway through his term, the signs of fall-to-come seemed un-ignorable by 2019-2020 but the effects of the COVID shut down and bailouts were so big it seems rather petty to discuss those now.

I have no doubt over the years this forum has been home to many many people (pro gold standard types, conservatives, libertarians etc.) who seemed to agree with my views.

[Samm]

@biggestal99

@Samm

Okay … Here is the first thing that came up:

“For a developed economy, an annual GDP growth rate of 2%-3% is considered normal.”

It does not say “desired” it says “normal.”

trumps first three years were normal.

didnt hear any complaints then about the economy.

only good things.

then when biden was elected suddenly it switched

wonder why?

Well for me personally, the $100,000 plunge in the value of my IRA (not counting loss due to inflation) under Biden was a starter.

[Gaius]

That would certainly make one start paying closer attention than before!

[Adam]

@Samm

@biggestal99

@Samm

Okay … Here is the first thing that came up:

“For a developed economy, an annual GDP growth rate of 2%-3% is considered normal.”

It does not say “desired” it says “normal.”

trumps first three years were normal.

didnt hear any complaints then about the economy.

only good things.

then when biden was elected suddenly it switched

wonder why?

Well for me personally, the $100,000 plunge in the value of my IRA (not counting loss due to inflation) under Biden was a starter.

Wait, your IRA is down under Biden? Man you should really hire a new person.

[vaard]

@Adam

@Samm

@biggestal99

@Samm

Okay … Here is the first thing that came up:

“For a developed economy, an annual GDP growth rate of 2%-3% is considered normal.”

It does not say “desired” it says “normal.”

trumps first three years were normal.

didnt hear any complaints then about the economy.

only good things.

then when biden was elected suddenly it switched

wonder why?

Well for me personally, the $100,000 plunge in the value of my IRA (not counting loss due to inflation) under Biden was a starter.

Wait, your IRA is down under Biden? Man you should really hire a new person.

to be fair, i doubt it was meant to be a factual statement…

republicans are too invested in doom and gloom to make true statements that might in any way be positive as long as there is a democrat president…

[Guntsu]

It depends on the investment, fixed income bond funds got destroyed with rising interest rates. If investors did not get out when rates first started climbing they are hurting.

I don’t think they have fully recovered.

[Samm]

@Adam

@Samm

@biggestal99

@Samm

Okay … Here is the first thing that came up:

“For a developed economy, an annual GDP growth rate of 2%-3% is considered normal.”

It does not say “desired” it says “normal.”

trumps first three years were normal.

didnt hear any complaints then about the economy.

only good things.

then when biden was elected suddenly it switched

wonder why?

Well for me personally, the $100,000 plunge in the value of my IRA (not counting loss due to inflation) under Biden was a starter.

Wait, your IRA is down under Biden? Man you should really hire a new person.

If your IRA is up, you must have started it last August.

[Samm]

@vaard

@Adam

@Samm

@biggestal99

@Samm

Okay … Here is the first thing that came up:

“For a developed economy, an annual GDP growth rate of 2%-3% is considered normal.”

It does not say “desired” it says “normal.”

trumps first three years were normal.

didnt hear any complaints then about the economy.

only good things.

then when biden was elected suddenly it switched

wonder why?

Well for me personally, the $100,000 plunge in the value of my IRA (not counting loss due to inflation) under Biden was a starter.

Wait, your IRA is down under Biden? Man you should really hire a new person.

to be fair, i doubt it was meant to be a factual statement…

republicans are too invested in doom and gloom to make true statements that might in any way be positive as long as there is a democrat president…

It was 100% factual. At the end of 2020, it held $646k … at the end of October 2023 it was $543k. It has since begun to rebound, but I’m still down over $60k. But given my rate of return prior to 2021, it should be at least $100k higher now than it is.

[biggestal99]

@Samm

It was 100% factual. At the end of 2020, it held $646k … at the end of October 2023 it was $543k. It has since begun to rebound, but I’m still down over $60k. But given my rate of return prior to 2021, it should be at least $100k higher now than it is.

invested in the wrong things.

EFTs are the way to go.

American innovators is where it is at. (VGT)

Allan

[Samm]

Sure, if you have twenty or thirty years before you retire.

[Gaius]

@biggestal99

@Samm

It was 100% factual. At the end of 2020, it held $646k … at the end of October 2023 it was $543k. It has since begun to rebound, but I’m still down over $60k. But given my rate of return prior to 2021, it should be at least $100k higher now than it is.

invested in the wrong things.

EFTs are the way to go.

American innovators is where it is at. (VGT)

Allan

Just a reminder about bonds

• Traditional old-school investors spend most of their lives in a 60/40 portfolio, 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
• As they near/enter retirement they shift more and more to bonds.
• Bonds are safe right?
• As tens of millions of American seniors (and many banks) have learned, “bonds are safe” does not mean they hold their value, it means only they pay what they purported to pay the day you bought them.
• If your life plan is “the standard plan” you are not invested in stocks, and you do not plan on retiring-off “just the interest” never selling a bond and leaving the entire principle to you heirs. You plan on selling your bonds and living-off whatever you get.

The last few years have quite probably been the worst in modern history. Hence the need for the Fed to ail out banks, and bail out bank depositers . . . heck they apparently bailed out everyone except seniors who followed the rules and invested the safe traditional time-tested manner.
.
.
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The first bond-index that pops up when I do a search was down 20% from its 2021 high and is down 10%

I don’t know too many people who blame Biden for bond prices, but

• That kind of action certainly made a lot of bond investors start paying attention
• This thread is not titled “Is Biden to blame” it is titled “Good News?”

Point being, what Sam is saying makes sense and
the continuous game of “gotcha” some play is tiring and unadult discussion.

[biggestal99]

@Gaius

Just a reminder about bonds

bonds are for losers.

never held them in my portfolio, never will.

Allan

[Guntsu]

Bond funds are, although we haven’t experienced a cratering in value like we witnessed recently in a very long time in large part due to rising rates.

Bond values have an inverse relationship with interest rates.

Buying individual bonds is the way to go if you’re going to do bonds. Cause the value can fluctuate as much as it wants if you hold the note to maturity you get your principal back.

[Gaius]

There is a Fed announcement later today.

In expectation that the announcement will “tend to confirm expectations of a rate cut” a popular bond index is up ~0.8% today. A popular leveraged ETF that tracks it 3x is up almost 2.57%.

That is just the action in one single day (and it is only 10:30 AM)

.
.
.
If you hold to maturity, bonds are what most people think they are, safe study investments that pay interest and return the principle.

But if you are 55-years-old and you buy 20-year bonds (better interest than short bonds) the “cash them in” value of your portfolio rises or falls just like stocks.
This matters a lot to someone whose retirement is based on cashing in part of his portfolio (leaving less than 100% of his IRA to his heirs.) Given the standard 60/40 portfolio, and the standard advice “invest less-riskily as you get older,” bonds are common. bonds are normal.

[Guntsu]

Right bond prices have an inverse relationship to interest rates.

Fixed income funds today are decent with a good yield and the potential to gain value due to interest rate cut expectations in the mid to long term.

But any half decent advisor if the individual has one should have started shaving off fixed income positions as interest rates began to rise.

[Gaius]

@Guntsu

But any half decent advisor if the individual has one should have started shaving off fixed income positions as interest rates began to rise.

If it were as transparent as you make it sound, banks would not be in the horrible position they are right now and the Fed would not have enacted its bailout in March (BTFP.)

And yet banks, with all their high-priced sophisticated accountants, economists and forecasters failed to do what you have just portrayed as easy-peasy. Since it hit banks unaware, it certainly hit a lot elderly investors and their elderly advisors by surprise.

(more)

[Guntsu]

I’m talking the individual investor not institutions but yes it did cause havoc in the banking center the cratering of bond values was the crux of the recent bank failures.