There is a temporary problem (caused by unrest in Peru)
AND
a longer term problem as the entire world seeks to switch out 150 years worth of oil infrastructure with copper-intensive electrical infrastructure at break neck speed.
Near term
Copper prices will surge to a record high this year as a rebound in Chinese demand risks depleting already low stockpiles, the world’s largest private metals trader has forecast.
Global inventories of the metal used in everything from power cables and electric cars to buildings have dropped rapidly in recent weeks to their lowest seasonal level since 2008, leaving little buffer if demand in China continues to pace ahead.
The benchmark three-month copper contract is trading at $9,000 a tonne, having gained 30 per cent since falling sharply in the three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Goldman Sachs expects the world to run out of visible copper inventories by the third quarter of this year if demand in China continues to power ahead as strongly as it did in February.
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The longer term outlook is even worse
Mining billionaire Robert Friedland told the Financial Times it took him 28 years to develop the vast Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is ramping up to supply 650,000 tonnes by the end of next year.
“We are heading towards a train wreck,” he said. S&P Global estimates that 40mn tonnes of copper will be consumed a year by 2030, up from 25mn tonnes in 2021.
if the copper shortage means nothing else, it means that any transition to EVS should NOT be ordained by diktat from central planners. I find it unimaginable that legislators took this type of information into account when dictating from above what year what transition should take place.
More likely they looked at their donor list and gallup polling data and decided
“We should switch to technology A bu 2035.”
If there really is a need for any kind of transition, we’d be far better off getting rid of 99% of our current environmental laws and putting a additional tax on barrels of oil.
Meanwhile a copper shortage is a greater economic threat than one might think.
Economists and investors call copper “Dr. Copper” because demand for copper surges just before and during any economic recovery. This tells us that copper is NEEDED FOR economic recovery. If, for supply reasons, copper is unavailable or expensive that prevents economic recovery from taking place.
“The prospect is reportedly one of the largest North American discoveries of copper, molybdenum and gold. According to developer Pebble Limited Partnership (owned by Canadian company Northern Dynasty Minerals), the deposit area contains 80.6 billion pounds of copper,107.4 million ounces of gold and 5.6 billion pounds of molybdenum. It is worth an estimated $400 billion.”
I DO find it odd that when we are supposedly “running out of oil”
there is much hand-wringing over “peak oil” and a huge drive to get away from using it . . . buy not comparable effort when we are “running out of copper.”
It predicts “A recession is coming.”
It indicates that we should not run blindly into embracing EVs.
It predicts any attempt to force consumers to buy EVS just might fail and be reversed in a few years.
It indicates that the US should probably review whether its anti-mining policies ar based on science of knee-jerk stereotypes.
It may or may not indicate coming price spikes in plumbing, electrical goods etc.
I recall you did this in another thread too. The question suggests that a person shouldn’t care if it doesn’t impact him. That self-centered attitude contributes to our society’s decline.
(Never mind that the issue here WILL affect you, and just about anyone alive.)
I recall that as well. I can’t seem to remember the topic. But asking how it affects the average person is not asking how it affects me. It’s a pretty large swath of people. It’s like the Fentanyl crisis. It’s very specific with little chance of affecting those that wish to avoid it. I was just wondering if this was similar.
