Alaska in March is supposed to be cold. Along the north and west coasts, the ocean should be frozen farther than the eye can see. In the state’s interior, rivers should be locked in ice so thick that they double as roads for snowmobiles and trucks. And where I live, near Anchorage in south-central Alaska, the snowpack should be deep enough to support skiing for weeks to come. But this year, a record-breaking heatwave upended norms and had us basking in comfortable—but often unsettling—warmth.
Across Alaska, March temperatures averaged 11 degrees Celsius above normal. The deviation was most extreme in the Arctic where, on March 30, thermometers rose almost 22 degrees Celsius above normal—to 3 degrees. That still sounds cold, but it was comparatively hot.
Today’s planned presser to celebrate the repeal of the carbon tax in Alberta was cancelled because of the raging forest fires and smoking blanketing Edmonton, choking citizens.
Just reducing the rate that fossil fuels are burned is not the key variable, as I understand it, in slowing the anthropogenic warming. Because it takes millennia to scrub carbon dioxide from the atmosphere it is the total hydrocarbons burned, not the rate, that counts. According to William Ruddiman’s book on Earth’s climate, there will be a pulse of carbon dioxide thrown into the atmosphere. The curve will be steep at the beginning, but have a fat tail. The human use of hydrocarbons will be a short blip on a geologic time scale. That blip may or may not delay the onset of the next glaciation.
It may not be the key variable, but it is the reality we face. No matter how much the extremist scream, fossil fuels will be used in abundance for many decades, perhaps centuries, to come. If indeed, that it s the primary cause of global warming, then the wisest thing we can do is to prepare for it and adapt.
Also, if the “greenhouse” theory is correct, it very well could be our salvation from the next inevitable ice age. If there ever was a global natural disaster that we can do nothing about facing mankind, that one is right up there with mega meteor strikes.
Mostly agree, Samm. Except I don’t think fossil fuels will be around for centuries. Either way, I’m not the kind of alarmist that believes that the earth will fry. Eventually, another ice age appears inevitable. What happens between is anybody’s guess.
No one need to be alarmist about the earth frying or somehow not existing. One needs to be alarmist about a world that no longer permits an advanced civilization and the ecological supports required.
I believe estimates range from 50 to 100 years given the increased rate of industrialization. But anything on that are rough estimates at best. Nonetheless someday they will run out.
Guatemala has been a prominent source of illegal immigrants to the US. Turns out the uptick in migration seems associated with climate change as it has been suffering through a major drought for the better part of the last decade. They have little carbon footprint of their own compared to the US and are poised to suffer disproportionately Friday m climate change. Guatemalas flee a disaster to a country for which a large part of the reponsibilty falls to turned away. It’s not going to get better. The world is going to get crueler and more authoritarian as events unfold.
Data from Customs and Border Patrol show a massive increase in the number of Guatemalan migrants, particularly families and unaccompanied minors, intercepted at the U.S. border starting in 2014. It’s not a coincidence that the leap coincides with the onset of severe El Niño-related drought conditions in Central America’s Dry Corridor, which stretches through Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.
Yeah. When “people” say there are so-and-so many years worth of some hydrocarbon left, look carefully. It often is directly or indirectly assumed to be “at current rates of consumption.” Moreover, a “current rate” may imply a growth rate. For example, since the beginning of the 21st century, global electricity consumption has increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. That doesn’t sound like much, but that’s a doubling time of about 16 years. Meaning the total global electricity consumption doubles every 16 years. I think Albert Einstein was asked: “What is the most powerful force in the universe?” He responded: “The power of compound interest.”
