No, we can calculate our position in the past only if there have been no unexpected forces that would change that position, which has been the basis of your entire argument which you are now contradicting.
In my argument, if the accuracy of these predictions is not sufficient to determine if a tiny change (by a close encounter with a NEO), a point which you have conceded (I think, sometimes it’s hard to tell what you’ve agreed to since you sometimes change your mind), then you cannot say the orbit has “corrected itself” since the two possibilities, corrected and not corrected appear identical to our insufficiently accurate measurements.
Imagine a dump truck full of pebbles. Let’s say there’s no way to count the number of pebbles but we can put the dump truck on a scale which is accurate down to the nearest 10 lbs, it’s a really good scale. Every day we measure the truck and it’s always the same. One day we see someone toss pebbles in it but the next day the truck still weighs the same down to the beast 10 lbs. You’re arguing that someone must have come by and taken those pebbles out of the truck, while the alternate explanation is that our scale simply isn’t accurate enough to tell if they’ve been removed or not. Both explanations appear identical to the observer.