Global warming is real


#2589

Because it always has done so. Every NEO has some effect on our orbit yet, the math shows we can accurately predict where we’ll be at any point in time absent some new force acting to change it.

The same calculations we use for our position in the future can be used to plot our position in the past and compare those numbers to those recorded at the time.

That tells us we keep returning to the same predictable orbit.


#2591

Absent some new force to change it? Like an NEO? Hmmmm.

Here’s the problem with your story. No NEO has had any measureable effect on our orbit in the timeframe that man has had the ability to measure it. So you can claim an object has affected our orbit but it returned to normal when we measure it but the reality is that there has simply been no measureable effect.


#2592

Like a large NEO with enough effect on us to alter it permanently yes.

There’s no evidence to suggest that any such event has happened in the last million years or so and certainly not within the time frame in which we’ve been recording solar and stellar observations.

Monolitic sites around the world dating back as far as 20,000 years or more that plot the positions of stars and the equinoxes show that we’ve remained on the same predictable orbit for as long as they have existed following minor perturbations.


#2593

We’ve only had the ability to detect minor variations in our orbit for less than a hundred years.

We’ve been here for over 4 billion years.


#2594

What minor perturbations are you referring to?

There haven’t been any in human history that could have any measurable effect. Certainly not able to be measured by Stonehenge (or some such objects).


#2595

Indeed. But that makes it difficult to understand why you think that we’ve somehow measured orbital perturbations and then have it return to normal.


#2596

With modern tech we can make calculations down the tens of meters.

We had that ability since the improvements to radar in the sixties and seventies radar and improved it dramatically with the advent of lasers.

Today we can even detect minute Doppler shifts in objects light years from earth.


#2597

Where exactly did I say we’ve measured previous perturbations? Cite the post.


#2598

So they’ve had effects on our orbit but we’ve never measured it? Is that what you’re saying now?

I guess that sort of ruins your theory.


#2599

My “Theory”?

Even you admitted that any object interacting with a planet affects it’s orbit until you decided it no longer supported your argument.

The fact we could not in prior centuries accurately measure minor perturbations doesn’t refute the physics that demonstrates that any object interacting with us gravitationally has an effect on our orbit.

What is different now and in the future is that we can measure even minor perturbations accurately.


#2600

I never changed my story. I just said that the “perturbations” are so minor that they could hardly even be measureable if at all.

Don’t forget. The claim you made was that we would experience a minor perturbation and then our orbit would return to the previous orbit over time. The claim was that this as borne out by observation.

So far there’s been no substantiation for this claim. Specifically, that our orbit would return to some previous state.


#2601

The claim is borne out every day exactly as I stated. Those objects have all caused minor perturbations yet we can calculate both forward and back and verify the position of the earth remains predictable.

We can do that by comparing the numbers predicted by those recorded throughout history and recorded at future dates as we get there.

The calculations keep working in both directions.

Your desperation and obsession here are pathological and you keep talking yourself into holes you can’t dig your way out of along with constantly contradicting your own prior statements.


#2602

Minor perturbations which have never been measured.

Correct?

Or are you holding out on me.


#2603

Exactly which of the words I used are giving you trouble?


#2604

This is how we know you’ve lost.


#2605

The ones that contradict the other ones and lead to really silly conclusions.

This is what you’ve told me:

  1. We can measure our orbit incredibly accurately
  2. Every object exerts a force on our orbit and cause small perturbations.
  3. The constant forces of the solar system revert our planet back to the “equilibrium”
  4. We know this because we’ve never measured any perturbation and our orbit is always exactly where it should be

It seems like your logic jumped over a step. You believe a thing because it’s never been observed.

I mean, you get how that’s ridiculous, right?


#2606

“Observed” and “measured” are not synonymous.

Even you admitted that any object interacting with us gravitationally would have an effect on our orbit and now you’re claiming that since we’ve not recorded prior variations relative to same they do not exist.

Ridiculous and self contradictory at best even if it weren’t for the obvious intellectual dishonesty.


#2607

You have to resolve the contradiction here.


#2608

I’m surprised you are so confident in the precision of these “monolitic sites” considering your skepticism of historic temperature measurements.


#2609

There is no contraction between the two.

We know that NEO’s pass by the earth and have through recorded history.