Yes, the state polling whiffed badly in those states. The RCP national average was only off by a percentage point, though. On election day Clinton was leading by 3.2% and ended up winning the national vote by 2.1%. Yes, we don’t elect presidents by national vote, but voting doesn’t occur in a vacuum. If the country overall is trending for a candidate then all states will generally see a shift in voting patterns. That is not to say that Biden could win a Wyoming or Trump could win a California, but we are talking about the battleground states)
There is no scenario where Joe Biden is up by 8% in the national vote (as he is today) and loses the electoral college. If he is up by that much nationally his .7% edge in WI, MI, and PA is gone and he loses those states.If we get to November and the polls show Biden ahead by 3% or 4% then we could have a repeat of 2016.
In 2020 Trump is a known entity as a president. He wasn’t well-liked in 2016, but he is hated in 2020. I did not vote for Trump, but I was one of those who thought he would grow into the role and not be so bad. Boy, was I wrong. Look at the number of people who said that the most important criteria in selecting the Dem candidate was who could beat Trump.So there are going to be a lot of people who maybe didn’t show up in 2016 because they weren’t excited about Hillary, but who want to make sure that Trump does not get reelected.
We still have 5 months to go, which is an eternity in politics and a lot can change - especially in these times, so I am not counting Trump out. But where he sits today is not in a good position.