I promised this and here it is. I am completely open to other views and of course though this is longer than typical OP’s, it does not encompass all of my thoughts and reasoning due to the length that would require.
The first question in any discussion about geopolitics would have to be what is the US interest. First, whether or not people choose to acknowledge our place in the world is irrelevant. We are who we are and the world is what it is. It’s not going to change because you, I, or anyone else doesn’t like it. There are currently 4 “superpowers” in the world.
USA
China
EU
Russia
Currently, the alignment of such is the US and EU on one side and China and Russia on the other. There’s good reason for this.
The US and EU share a more or less common world view. We are both Democratic with opposition parties that are not powerless and power does change hands from one to the other based on public preference or sentiment.
China and Russia are both authoritarian regimes where there is no real opposition. Each is ruled dictatorially by whichever tyrant can manage to claw his way to the top and hold power within the apparatus of the state.
There was a time, not long ago when we (the US) saw it as in our interest to bring Russia into alignment with the west. So did they. However, Putin’s rise to power ended that. Rather than “westernize” and become a part of the group, Putin sought to maintain Russia’s status as a superpower on its own and the first among “equals” it chose to align with it. Hence the Russian Federation and BRICS were born. Over time, the federation has waned. It’s now a joke. But BRICS continues, now as a Chinese tool more than a Russian one. The only “partner” Russia has is its puppet Belarusian dictator and Russia has basically devolved into a gas station with nukes. It is a superpower only in the sense that it has nuclear weapons. Unless change is brought to Russia, this is a recipe for disaster and a nuclear holocaust waiting to happen. There simply is no way that under the current regime Russia will not continue to decline and its death throws could be catastrophic. They will not “go quietly into that good night” but will “rage”. Nobody(or at least very few) willingly gives up power.
China is an enigma. You would think with so many people they might rise up and throw off the yoke of dictatorship. But, I think it’s not quite so bad for the average citizen. How is that? Well, China is so big that I don’t believe the government has any ability at all to monitor and control the population. I therefore believe that the people are for the most part free to do as they wish. Further, I think that so long as it does not affect them personally, they just don’t care about the oppression of others like the Uigars. As such, the government is free to act however they want, wherever they want with impunity. Especially in the outside world. They are a growing threat militarily and economically. Though I would say the economic threat is not as bad as some make it out to be.
There should be no confusion about China and Russia; China will dominate this relationship and Russia will become a vassal state if the current alignment continues. What danger is there to the world when one has a nuclear armed vassal that allows a level of deniability for ones actions? Russia would have been better off and come out with more retained power by aligning with the west, but they made the wrong choice. Russia, and especially China’s efforts in the outside world are a threat to the US. Their consistent and growing influence through initiatives is directed at US power. I know there are those who say “so what, we don’t have to be the world’s #1 superpower”. I have no doubt those same people would be whining the loudest the day after the dollar was no longer the world’s reserve currency. I have no doubt because the day after that happens we will no longer be the world’s number one superpower. Our economy would collapse in the “blink of an eye”. It is in our interest to guard against this. Currently we have two aligned superpowers that we have to guard against. The EU is aligned with us, but let’s face it, they are not all that reliable and getting them to go along is like herding cats. They have their own interests, and they don’t always align with ours.
So how do we handle that? How do we deal with having two superpower adversaries?
Step 1: Weak link.
Russia is the weak link. It is in our interest to further weaken the regime. There are three possible outcomes.
Collapse of the Russian Federation and alignment with the west
Collapse of the Russian Federation and alignment with China
Collapse of the Russian Federation with some mix of alignments.
Obviously, what would most be in our interest would be for it to collapse and to bring it into the western sphere. That is a very difficult proposition in light of the fact that we are the ones that also need to help its collapse along. I believe it is possible. Ukraine is the rock on which we can break the current regime and that is what makes Ukraine a US interest. Not Ukraine itself, but what Ukraine can do for us with regard to Russia. Getting a replacement that’s more pro western in Russia will be the trick, but it’s not impossible. For a thousand years Russia has wanted to be a European power, it’s sort of genetically built in. In the end Russia west of the Urals may end up “in europe ‘’ and Russia east of the Urals in the Chinese camp. Having as much of “Russia” in the western camp as possible is something we should be trying to achieve.
So what if we do? What then?
Well, then we have only one adversarial superpower and we adjust for it. How?
Get Ukraine and the new European Russia into NATO
Change our status in NATO to “observer” status and leave our involvement in defending Europe as ambiguous as it is with Taiwan
European NATO, now having a border with China, will need to ramp up and finally provide for its own defense at levels that it needs instead of relying on us.
Change our focus to ANZUS + GB enlarging the alliance to include India, Japan, SK
Europe and China will eventually fight. Let them; defend in the Pacific and help arm Europe while not getting in the fight for as long as possible.
Enjoy the hegemony.
