GDP Prediction for 2018Q3


And it’s here! 3.5%

Solid quarter. Going in to the fourth quarter, the magic number is 3.31. That’s what Q4 needs to be for us to achieve 2.95 (i.e. 3% when rounding up, though technically we’d need 4.1 to get actual 3%) for the year.


and stocks are getting crushed


You had predicted that yesterday - that if it was a strong report stocks would go down. Why is that?


Poor trump still hasn’t beat Obama’s high GDP in 2014 5%+


a strong report implies teh fed can keep raising rates. which scares the market.
a weak report would have possibly caused the fed to pause .


Ah, that makes sense, thanks!


Is it true that a lot of what we’re seeinf in terms of GDP is government spending related?


I’m late to the game, having been on hiatus. Kudos to Nebraska for pointing me to this thread.

Many thanks for your very educational OP. I had never given much thought to GDP calculations and your informative OP was of particular interest.

Armed with your information, I put together a comprehensive spreadsheet going back to 1947 quarterly and yearly GDP growth calculations using chained 2012 dollars. My calculations are pretty much dead on with reported numbers.

Using my spreadsheet, I’m guessing 4th quarter growth clocking in at close to 3% with a yearly GDP in the 2.93% range. That’s pretty close to your 2.95% projection.


That sounds about right going off of memory. Every 0.2% increase in Q4 results in a 0.01% movement in annual 2018 GDP.