GDP Prediction for 2018Q3

Economy
#6

A gentlemen’s 3.0!

My eyes are more on Google and Amazon earnings, though. If they both miss, the market’s going to slide big tomorrow.

I love how Amazon tanked earlier in the week but jumped 7% today because people decided they’re optimistic for no reason (this is why day trading=gambling, btw).

#7

Trump supporters staying away. Must be all the math. Let me try again:

Third quarter GDP is going to be the bigliest GDP. Some are saying the most growth, perhaps ever. This year will reach historic numbers. MAGA.

1 Like
#8

Excellent breakdown.

I’m going to follow Atlanta’s numbers and go 3.3%. I think the inpact of the 2 hurricanes are lagging enough to affect Q4 2018.

#9

Excellent thread. Great way to kick off the predictions.

3.14

I say that because it’s just a little higher than Adroit’s prediction and because my number is not repeatable.

#10

Trump likes pie. When you’re famous, they let you…never mind.

Sorry, just trying to draw in the red hatters.

#11

both down big after earnings.
AMZN down 8% GOOG 4%
earnings were better than expected but revenue missed and AMZN’s forecast for q4 was low

Stocks and oil in free fall
#12

Yup. The low AMZN revenue guidance is a broader issue for the market, I think.

Think today’s surge in the market will be a blip in a downward trend?

#13

2%. I think people be saving their money and cashing out of equities. Plus home sales and mortgages are down with mortgage rates increasing

#14

Yup. The low AMZN revenue guidance is a broader issue for the market, I think.

Think today’s surge in the market will be a blip in a downward trend?

#15

Not a Trump supporter but this was a very nice analysis. Well done! I’ll just guess 3.2%.

1 Like
#16

Just curious, but did Amazon say why they had a lower forecast for 4Q?

#17
  • Net sales are expected to be between $66.5 billion and $72.5 billion, or to grow between 10% and 20% compared with fourth quarter 2017. This guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately 80 basis points from foreign exchange rates.
#18

There is no way that a thread this good would last in the Politics forum. It’s more convenient to shelve it over here.

How would a Trump supporter even begin to disagree–I mean, without making fools of themselves . . . again?

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#19

Depends on gdp. If gdp comes in high I think the market gets smoked. A weak number and the market will be ok imho

But I could be wrong it’s happened once or twice

#20

I’m gonna go ahead and guess that because Trump didn’t spill the beans like he did last time, we might even be like 2.9.

About 20 more minutes until release.

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#21

And it’s here! 3.5%

Solid quarter. Going in to the fourth quarter, the magic number is 3.31. That’s what Q4 needs to be for us to achieve 2.95 (i.e. 3% when rounding up, though technically we’d need 4.1 to get actual 3%) for the year.

#22

and stocks are getting crushed

#23

You had predicted that yesterday - that if it was a strong report stocks would go down. Why is that?

#24

Poor trump still hasn’t beat Obama’s high GDP in 2014 5%+

#25

a strong report implies teh fed can keep raising rates. which scares the market.
a weak report would have possibly caused the fed to pause .