GDP Prediction for 2018Q3

A gentlemen’s 3.0!

My eyes are more on Google and Amazon earnings, though. If they both miss, the market’s going to slide big tomorrow.

I love how Amazon tanked earlier in the week but jumped 7% today because people decided they’re optimistic for no reason (this is why day trading=gambling, btw).

Trump supporters staying away. Must be all the math. Let me try again:

Third quarter GDP is going to be the bigliest GDP. Some are saying the most growth, perhaps ever. This year will reach historic numbers. MAGA.

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Excellent breakdown.

I’m going to follow Atlanta’s numbers and go 3.3%. I think the inpact of the 2 hurricanes are lagging enough to affect Q4 2018.

Excellent thread. Great way to kick off the predictions.


I say that because it’s just a little higher than Adroit’s prediction and because my number is not repeatable.

Trump likes pie. When you’re famous, they let you…never mind.

Sorry, just trying to draw in the red hatters.

both down big after earnings.
AMZN down 8% GOOG 4%
earnings were better than expected but revenue missed and AMZN’s forecast for q4 was low

Yup. The low AMZN revenue guidance is a broader issue for the market, I think.

Think today’s surge in the market will be a blip in a downward trend?

2%. I think people be saving their money and cashing out of equities. Plus home sales and mortgages are down with mortgage rates increasing

Yup. The low AMZN revenue guidance is a broader issue for the market, I think.

Think today’s surge in the market will be a blip in a downward trend?

Not a Trump supporter but this was a very nice analysis. Well done! I’ll just guess 3.2%.

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Just curious, but did Amazon say why they had a lower forecast for 4Q?

  • Net sales are expected to be between $66.5 billion and $72.5 billion, or to grow between 10% and 20% compared with fourth quarter 2017. This guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately 80 basis points from foreign exchange rates.

There is no way that a thread this good would last in the Politics forum. It’s more convenient to shelve it over here.

How would a Trump supporter even begin to disagree–I mean, without making fools of themselves . . . again?

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Depends on gdp. If gdp comes in high I think the market gets smoked. A weak number and the market will be ok imho

But I could be wrong it’s happened once or twice

I’m gonna go ahead and guess that because Trump didn’t spill the beans like he did last time, we might even be like 2.9.

About 20 more minutes until release.

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And it’s here! 3.5%

Solid quarter. Going in to the fourth quarter, the magic number is 3.31. That’s what Q4 needs to be for us to achieve 2.95 (i.e. 3% when rounding up, though technically we’d need 4.1 to get actual 3%) for the year.

and stocks are getting crushed

You had predicted that yesterday - that if it was a strong report stocks would go down. Why is that?

Poor trump still hasn’t beat Obama’s high GDP in 2014 5%+

a strong report implies teh fed can keep raising rates. which scares the market.
a weak report would have possibly caused the fed to pause .