GDP Growth Below 3%


#1

It’s time for some real talk.

Obama is the only U.S. chief executive in history not to preside over even a single year with 3 percent GDP growth (https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/05/barack-obama-economy-jobs-ugly-truth/)

Barack Obama Will Be The Only President In History To Never Have A Year Of 3% GDP Growth (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-30/barack-obama-will-be-only-president-history-never-have-year-3-gdp-growth)

Obama’s Historically Bad Economy (https://www.weeklystandard.com/jeffrey-h-anderson/obamas-historically-bad-economy)

“So we’re at 3.3 percent GDP. I see no reason why we don’t go to 4 percent, 5 percent, and even 6 percent.” - Donald J. Trump (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/trump-defies-data-with-6-percent-gdp-growth-forecast.html)

Conservatives railed about Obama not having a year above 3% GDP growth leading up to the 2016 election. It’s likely that 2018 will be Trump’s best year of his presidency, and it’d take a Christmas Miracle for him to reach 3% annual GDP growth in 2018. It’s a decent chance that he won’t even beat Obama’s 2.9% in 2015.

So, what gives? Trump has unleashed business potential by scaling back regulations. He’s showing his mad negotiating skills on trade. He signed a massive tax cut that was a deficit fueled windfall to corporations and the wealthy. Why on earth are we not getting “4 percent, 5 percent or even 6 percent”? I just don’t understand why these GOP policies aren’t resulting a booming economy!!

If it is a booming economy, then I suppose 2015 was a more booming economy since it had higher growth? Hmm.


#2

Obviously a) we didn’t cut taxes enough and b) the Obama/Hillary/Deep State-controlled Fed torpedoed the roaring Trumponomics Engine by raising interest rates.

Oh and the (((Soros)))-funded invasion caravans are sucking away our economic vitality at the southern border.


#3

I dont care what trump supporters answers or excuses will be…i just want the american public to understand they got suckered again by people who would ■■■■ all over them given the chance.


#4

Have you heard any predictions on what the 2018 number will be?

I know you have discussed in other threads that due to rounding, that some 2.9xxx% numbers may get rounded up to a 3.0% GDP for 2018?


#5

You cannot overestimate the drag that Hillary Clinton’s email server has placed on economic growth during the Trump years!


#6

Yup i think you covered all the potential deflections in one nice concise post. Well done sire Well done.


#7

Donald Trump is a con-artist.


#8

After retail sales numbers that came out this morning, Barclay lowered their Q4 estimate to 2.1% which would put annual GDP growth at around 2.85 (which will round up to 2.9% in the reports). The 4th quarter needs to grow at 2.6% in order for 2018 break even with 2015 (2.881%). A Q4 of 2.7% would result in an annual rate of 2.887%. Prior to today, a few of the major Q4 estimates were:

ATL Fed: 2.7%
NY Fed: 2.41%
St. Louis Fed: 2.57%
Moody’s: 2.7%

Todays reports are going to bring all of those down.


#9

Wow. So much for Trump and his supporters touting record GDP growth.


#10

This is exactly what trump and his supporters wanted because they were tired of so much winning…


#11

I can’t handle this much winning.


#12

This talking point was so bad. After they spent nearly a decade saying Obama’s economy was being propped up by the FED.


#13

Yall are forgetting a big one:

QE!!! (ignoring that we’re still relatively near peak fed balance sheet levels).


#14

Yeah, there’s basically zero chance he can reach 3% (actually 2.95) for 2018. He’d need a Q4 of 3.71%.


#15

Obviously, the “deep state™” pushed Trump to slow the economy down because everyone got so damn tired of winning.


#16

As ever it was always ■■■■■■■■


#17

Y’all are forgetting another big one. Big fat dumb Donald had the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate seven times to 2.4% in order to get the economy to grow. The dotard should have let the Fed keep it at an effective 0% like it was in 2015 when the economy was booming.

Dumb Donald strikes again. He doesn’t even realize the effect of raising this rate has on increasing interest paid on debt and growing the federal deficit. Smoke and mirrors.


#18

I’d generally retort with “Trump is cool” but based on your excellent analysis not feeling so cool right now.


#19

But we were assured that this is the best the economy has ever done, that America is more prosperous than it ever has been, and Trump is the most productive and successful President in history. Those can’t all be lies, can they?


#20

The good news is that if the Dow falls below 25,000 and comes back up Trump can tweet about it again.