We didn’t do our normal predictions this quarter, but here’s the actual BEA report. But first analysis is down 4.8%.
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To think that that was just with half of March or even less time in some places issuing stay-at-home orders. Now consider all of April and at least part or all of May in some places for Q2. Its going to be brutal.
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Yeah it’s going to be rough.
Ugh.
and heck, forget about the local downs…just think about how much less business we all can do even when they are lifted…
Restaurants at 50%capacity, no gatherings larger than ???
So, still no sports, concerts, etc…
Bars at 50%, retail stores with restrictions as well…
Oh boy.
It’s looking now I will be lucky that my industry opens up by July.
Between loss of work and vacation rentals income going away, I am losing half my income this year.
I am sure that I am not the only one.
Best of luck. Don’t be afraid to reach out for help, and maybe time to start daydreaming about different opportunities.
Thanks… I have resources that I can pull on if needed. Don’t want to… but they are there.
I am treating this as a dry run for early retirement.
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2020 looks like it’s going to be a brutal year.
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Unfortunately, the 2nd quarter is going to be a blood bath. This is going to take years to recover from.
It’s all Trump’s fault…amirite? 
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Of course. Pathetically the way the left sees it.
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Take heart then…I’m out here on the front line of our economy and allow me to share with you that even without any government assistance, if I’m not in the black…it’s going to be pretty damn close. Now consider that that’s after sending home the majority of the employees with their full pay. I then get to see my comparison against hundreds of like businesses throughout the southeast and…I’m nothing special? Most are doing ok. Isn’t that good news?
First reference to Trump was yours. For the record.
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I wish you the best of luck. We’re taking a bath but that’s due to the decrease in oil demand. Going to get ugly for us. I’m thinking about opening up a gun store!
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I don’t think Trump deserves the blame for the virus or the bad economy resulting from the steps necessary to combat the invisible enemy.
He’s does get the credit/blame for his response and his response has been sketchy at best. Pitting governors against each other to try and obtain the necessary safety equipment is a big red flag on Trump’s leadership. As are his daily rallies disguised as coronavirus pressers where he can’t seem to get on the same page as the task force.
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Some of the slowdowns were happening before the lockdowns were in place because of the pandemic itself.
So Q2 will be brutal but we need to stop assuming all of the slowdown is because of the lockdowns.
Because already some are making the error of assuming that if we open up we will just have a nice normal V-shaped recovery when all evidence is to the contrary.
Nobody said that.
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mines down about 40%. some of it i dont expect to recover ever.
The slow down and impending depression are definitely not trumps fault.
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So I’m looking through the detailed tables of the BEA report and i don’t know if the bolded is true. The vast majority of the retraction is in personal consumption expenditures. Breaking it down even further, services was the biggest drop (-229.6) and the top three are:
- Health care (-110.3)
- Food services and accommodations (-73.1)
- Recreation services (-47.3)
All three of these didn’t really start taking a hit until the second half of March. There were maybe a few cases like SXSW that were in early March, but not really any before then. Elective procedures didn’t stop until the second half of March and bars and restaurants didn’t start closing until around then as well.
The effect the pandemic had on import/exports actually resulted in a positive contribution towards the GDP calculation because imports decreased almost 3x as much as exports, resulting in an increase in GDP of 83.3 billion.
Private investment only contributed a drop of 48 billion.
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