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More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter (July to September) . . .

Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. . . .

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LINK:

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This seems to me like a fairly strong indication of a Trump victory.

I note however that during ONE of the three moths of the poll, Joe Biden was still the Dem candidate so, well, I’m not ready to bet on the election outcome yet.

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Based on what @Ben_Natuf and others have said its polls at a state level that have more meaning so it would be interesting to see what the results of the poll would be if it was conducted in each of the swing states.

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in general democrats always have the lead in national polls. A democrat lead of 2-3% usually indicates a very close election for President. In Congress a 1-2% dem lead would indicate a very close congressional election. Republicans going in tied or with a lead in national polls is very seldom and really not very good news for democrats.

For instance, right now the national polls have Harris up about 3 points. When you look at state polls it shows a very tight race with Harris having a slight EV edge. When you consider MoE, its really tied.

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I completely disagree. To me, it is a strong indication of how badly MAGA screwed up.

It was right there for the taking.

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A poll released a few days ago shows people trending toward identifying as GOP for the first time in decades and your weird MAGA obsession informs you MAGA screwed up?

How does that even work? Is there something I’m missing here?

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Yes, Trump has lost yet another election. Despite having more people identify as the party he claims to represent more than ever before.

What you are missing is that literally any (R) except Trump would crush any (D) in this election.

You MAGA chose the one guy the dems can beat as your candidate. And then added Vance.

MAGA has lost this election. Again.

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I don’t like losers. MAGA is a loser.

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LOL. The election is not lost, and I am not MAGA. Unlike you however, I am not obsessed with it.

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As far back as 2016, more people identified as Dems and Trump won.

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In 2024:
If you walk down the street carrying an American flag people know who you are voting for.

I don’t think the average voter has changed I don’t think most people have changed. I think the left has been stuck in its own echo chamber too long, believes its own snarky internet retorts and as such has moved far to the left abandoning the center.

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Pretty sure this is you.

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That’s because MAGA has weaponized patriotism.

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Did I mention “. . . believes its own snarky internet retorts?”
Yeah I think I did.

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pretty sure that what I meant at the time was a little different than what it means now and what was being discussed was America first. My understanding has changed a bit. I am America First, which people, my self included, associated with MAGA. I no longer do. MAGA is not America first, it is Americans first. They simply want to be the first in line at the trough. I don’t want there to be a trough. I want to put the nation first by pursuing policies that advance the betterment of the nation. I now understand things differently and would not describe myself as MAGA, although I am definitely America First.

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You disagree that patriotism has been weaponized?

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which is not nearly as insidious as weaponizing the governement

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Patriotism is not loving wat you wish America was.

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Yes I disagree.
More like it has been criminialized.
Cerainly made the object of scorn derision and hate.

Dem protesters tear down an american flag on campus.
Dem protesters burn American flag.
Dem protesters assault counter protester for silently carrying an American flag,
(again and again and again)

Carrying an American flag is now a brave act act of defiance, an act of civil disobedience which must immediately be accomapnyied by "I’m not a racist but . . . "

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It is lost.

I’m not obsessed. When your MAGA loses yet again, the country gets another 4 years of the garbage you are all so quick to complain about now.

MAGA is like a pack of Gen Z females; whining and complaining about the situation but refusing to look in the mirror. It’s pathetic.