So, I was curious if the CBO had released any estimates on the budgetary effects of the stimulus bills. It turns out they have. If I’m reading it correctly, it looks like between the CARES Act  and PPPHCE Act , we could be looking at an additional $2 trillion added to the FY 2020 deficit. So, what does that mean?
Well, we have a current FY 2020 deficit projection of $1.1 trillion. That doesn’t factor in the incredible decrease in revenues that we’re going to face. We could potentially see a drop of $1+ trillion in revenues.
When it’s all said and done, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we could see a $4 trillion DEFICIT in FY 2020.
This would have been devastating no matter what. That we didn’t decide to control spending and refill the coffers when times were good takes it to another level. The old grasshopper and the ant rearing its head.
They had the chance I even gave Obama huge props for forming the Simpson/Bowles non partisan commission to study the debt and deficit and what to do about it. Remember that was when the debt was half of what is now. They came back with their suggestions of having to raise taxes and decrease spending on a large basis and they were quietly sweeped under the rug.
You manage a crisis by preparation. If a crisis occurs and you haven’t prepared, you are forced with tough decisions. Like choosing the economy or people’s lives. Pretty easy to see who values what. Too bad it has to be that way.
Years ago I pushed a pencil and concluded at 26 trillion, there was no way to service the debt and pay our bills. When I added the trillions that were being thrown around by politicians, it appears “we” have arrived and it isn’t a good place. Look…there’s a signpost up ahead…
I wanted to follow up on my OP. A couple of days after I made this thread, the CBO came out with a preliminary estimate for the FY2020 and FY2021 deficit :
FY2020: $3.7 Trillion
FY2021: $2.1 Trillion
If I understand correctly, this doesn’t include the second round of PPP. It also looks like the CBO underestimated the decline in GDP in Q1 (at least according to the BEA’s advance estimate). The deficit will almost certainly exceed $4 trillion as I predicted in my OP.
For some perspective, we’re going to come close to the total aggregate deficit in Obama’s 8 years during Trump’s 4 years. Holy moly.