Fluke Reuters Poll Shows GOP Leading on Generic Congressional Ballot

I found this through Freep which found it through PJ media.

Frankly I think it’s a fluke. But after a year of the Dems beating the GOP, (week after week, every week,) in the Reuters generic party poll, now it shows the GOP leading by a little more than 2%.

Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?

1,697 Responses

Republican candidate 39%
Democratic candidate 36.7%

I’m saying it again right now based on the overconfidence I’m seeing from some board members here.

The GOP will hold both the House and Senate.

November isn’t going to be the anti-Trump referendum some people think it is.

Especially since I think the Dems, as usual, are overplaying their hand and are going to turn off voters who may not like Trump, but are NOT overtly liberal either.

We’ll see. One factor that might change things is if a lot of these newly minted 18-yo voters actually show up to vote like they say they’re going to now.

Progressives have been doing everything they can to make the Dem tent smaller for a long time now.

I concur.

Call it the Nader effect, I honestly believe somewhere around 2004 the Dems gave up all pretense of being “about” working families and made trying to get the vote if cool-kid progressives their main thrust.

I’m going to guess most everyone agrees that this poll was a fluke.

The 51previous polls, done the same way by the same people showed a small advantage to the Dems, (the party out of power typically does well in midterm elections.)

I disagree.

D’s are going to flip the House.

I don’t think it a fluke. Most polls aren’t worth spit but the Trend has been moving in this direction for several months now.

Rasmussen has the dem lead at 1 percent now. All seem to be closing.

Pelosi and Shumer have wayyyy over played their hands.

Hillary was going to win too.

They may not have the lead but the gap has been closing for sure.

Yeah I think you can pay attention to trends.

Well that would be consistent with what I’m saying, tho I am not ready to make the call you just did.

I have not followed the mid year races the way some have, but I did read one impressive analysis that said the D’s that “surprisingly” won those races were D’s who positioned themselves as old school Harry Truman, party of the working family, Democrats and distanced themselves from Nancy Pelosi and the tragically hip wing of the party.

Typically you see things like this tighten up as you get closer to elections. I expect the Dems to pull out ahead as we get closer when the public is more aware of the issues.

I believe the candidate needs to fit their district. If that means middle of the road D candidates in more conservative areas, that is fine with me. In more liberal areas that means more progressive candidates. I do not want to see the D party do what the R’s have been doing - screaming RINO at every R who doesnt go along with every nutty R issue, primaring them and ending up unelectable candidates. As a Democrat, It’s great for me that the R’s do that, but it’s an incredibly stupid thing politically to do.

Agreed. Still not convinced that these “generic ballot” polls are that meaningful.

It reminds me of how Congress has a 15% approval rating, but individual members are usually quite high. It’s easy to give opinions on abstract intangible things. Completely different when it’s specific candidates.

It’s actually getting closer because the public is becoming aware of the issues and that Trump is doing well propaganda not with standing. :grin:

Exactly. It all comes down to individual races.

I agree that Trump is doing better, but I’d expect a strong push by Dems as we get closer to Nov.

I’ll disagree, though, that the public is becoming more aware of the issues now. We’re getting into the Summer months and people pay less attention. That will change in the Fall.

The generic polls are getting closer, but as that has closed the individual seats moving to “toss up” and “lean” are almost all going in the Democrats favor.

its the economy…i think the house will be really close, while the senate might just shift some seats around but remain the same.

That’s not what I’m hearing. I heard last night that at least 4 seats recently changed directions in favor of the GOP.

Ingraham was talking about it last night on her show.