Florida Primary election, vote by mail and early voting statistics, as of close of business 8/11/20

Politics
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2020 Primary
Election Number - 10865 Election Date - 08/18/2020

Stats Type Republican Democrat Other No Party Affiliation Total Compiled
Vote-by-Mail Provided (Not Yet Returned) 794,343 1,226,468 30,999 600,630 2,652,440 08/11/2020 2:06PM Download File
Voted Vote-by-Mail 584,947 815,322 12,188 233,623 1,646,080 08/11/2020 2:06PM Download File
Voted Early 122,734 89,474 740 13,069 226,017 08/11/2020 2:06PM Download File

Democrats have a very heavy advantage in vote by mail, both in returned ballots and those requested but not yet returned. Republicans have an extremely modest 34,000 lead in early voting.

But overall, Democrats have a total lead of 2,131,264 to 1,502,024. A difference of 629,240.

At this late hour, Republicans can’t make up the difference in mail ballots, as it is pretty much past the point where you could request a ballot, receive it and get it returned by 7:00 pm on August 18. Early voting lasts until Saturday in most counties and Sunday in some. Not going to make up the difference there either. Probably not going to see turnout on election day to reverse that advantage.

This is, of course, the primary election, not the general election and Democrats and Republicans are not actually facing off at this time. Still, there are as many competitive Republican primaries around the State as there are Democratic primaries and there are Judges to be voted on, so the “paucity” factor is not really at play here.

(Note: Paucity factor is when one party has an insignificant primary ballot, thus depressing that party’s turnout. For example, Trump being uncontested in many States during the primary.)

I think this demonstrates a significant “enthusiasm” factor, which likely will bode ill for Republicans in November.

Florida’s primary election is August 18th, less than a week away.

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Voted Vote-by-Mail 584,947 815,322

Voted Early 122,734 89,474

Notice the deviation when it isn’t done in person? image Foul!

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Like I have repeatedly told you the same thing happened in the California race Republican Mike Garcia won.

His Democratic challenger won the in person vote, but Garcia took the mail in vote by a 3 to 1 margin.

So by your logic above, his win was fraudulent.

Amirite?

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“Whether you call it Vote by Mail or Absentee Voting, in Florida the election system is Safe and Secure, Tried and True. Florida’s Voting system has been cleaned up (we defeated Democrats attempts at change), so in Florida I encourage all to request a Ballot & Vote by Mail! #MAGA,”

~~ Donald J. Trump endorses Vote by Mail in Florida.
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.WW, PSHS

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It’s my understanding the one major difference between the two is that “absentee” means…you have to get off of your butt, think ahead and make the effort to arrange for your ballot…including proof of you being who you say you are.

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Your understanding is incorrect.

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You need to do all that for standard mail in voting.

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It’s hilarious that Florida has had mail in voting for 20 years… but now that Trumpmessiah looks to lose hard, his worshipers are freaking out and screaming “fraud” at the sky. :sunglasses:

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:rofl:

Nope.

The percentages do not have to correlate and are unlikely to correlate. The fact that they don’t correlate simply points to the obvious. If a high number of Democrats are voting by mail, that necessarily means they aren’t voting in person.

No foul.

:smile:

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Whether it is an absentee vote or vote-by-mail is the requirement that the signature must match the same in both instances?

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Early voting closed in Florida today, current numbers from Brevard County, a bellwether county on the East Coast.

County Republican Democrat Constitution Ecology Green Independent Libertarian Party for Socialism & Liberation Reform No Party Affiliation Total Precincts

Brevard 184,650 135,090 124 45 292 5,332 1,576 30 42 107,830 435,011 162

At book closing, Republicans constituted 42.45% of the electorate. Democrats 31.05%.

As of the end of early voting today.

80,044 votes have been cast, combined vote by mail and early voting, 18.40% turn out.

64,768 so far by vote by mail, 15,275 total early voting.

36,689 Republican or 45.84%.

33,185 Democrat or 41.46%.

In Brevard County, Democrats turnout is currently 10 points above their county registration numbers, while Republican turnout is current on 3 points higher. Other parties, and no party affiliation is well down as is typical in a primary election.

Bottom line, Democrats are getting out the vote, Republicans are not.

This is only a primary election, but if this holds true for the general election, Republicans are in big trouble.