Election Number - 10865 Election Date - 08/18/2020
|Stats Type||Republican||Democrat||Other||No Party Affiliation||Total||Compiled|
|Vote-by-Mail Provided (Not Yet Returned)||794,343||1,226,468||30,999||600,630||2,652,440||08/11/2020 2:06PM||Download File|
|Voted Vote-by-Mail||584,947||815,322||12,188||233,623||1,646,080||08/11/2020 2:06PM||Download File|
|Voted Early||122,734||89,474||740||13,069||226,017||08/11/2020 2:06PM||Download File|
Democrats have a very heavy advantage in vote by mail, both in returned ballots and those requested but not yet returned. Republicans have an extremely modest 34,000 lead in early voting.
But overall, Democrats have a total lead of 2,131,264 to 1,502,024. A difference of 629,240.
At this late hour, Republicans can’t make up the difference in mail ballots, as it is pretty much past the point where you could request a ballot, receive it and get it returned by 7:00 pm on August 18. Early voting lasts until Saturday in most counties and Sunday in some. Not going to make up the difference there either. Probably not going to see turnout on election day to reverse that advantage.
This is, of course, the primary election, not the general election and Democrats and Republicans are not actually facing off at this time. Still, there are as many competitive Republican primaries around the State as there are Democratic primaries and there are Judges to be voted on, so the “paucity” factor is not really at play here.
(Note: Paucity factor is when one party has an insignificant primary ballot, thus depressing that party’s turnout. For example, Trump being uncontested in many States during the primary.)
I think this demonstrates a significant “enthusiasm” factor, which likely will bode ill for Republicans in November.
Florida’s primary election is August 18th, less than a week away.