First look at the 2024 United States Senate picture (12/22)

Safiel · 2022-12-15T07:23:18.074Z

First, Republican incumbents.

Republicans

Barrasso, John (R-WY)
Blackburn, Marsha (R-TN)
Braun, Mike (R-IN)
Cramer, Kevin (R-ND)
Cruz, Ted (R-TX)
Fischer, Deb (R-NE)
Hawley, Josh (R-MO)
Romney, Mitt (R-UT)
Scott, Rick (R-FL)
Wicker, Roger F. (R-MS)

Even if any incumbents retire, I consider all 10 seats to be SAFE Republican. In other words, Republicans are all but assured of not LOSING any seats this cycle.

Independents

King, Angus S., Jr. (I-ME)
Sanders, Bernard (I-VT)
Sinema, Kyrsten (D-AZ)

If King runs, SAFE Independent. If King retires, LEAN Democrat. If Sanders runs, SAFE Independent. If Sanders retires/runs for President, SAFE Democrat.

As for Sinema, right now, in the absence of any candidate information for either the Republican or Democratic primaries, I will start this race off as PURE TOSSUP. IF the Republicans don’t come up with a fruitcake, they should benefit from the split between Sinema and the Democratic nominee.

Democrats

Baldwin, Tammy (D-WI) - Lean Democrat
Brown, Sherrod (D-OH) - Tossup
Cantwell, Maria (D-WA) - Safe Democrat
Cardin, Benjamin L. (D-MD) - Safe Democrat
Carper, Thomas R. (D-DE) - Safe Democrat
Casey, Robert P., Jr. (D-PA) - Lean Democrat
Feinstein, Dianne (D-CA) - I believe Feinstein will retire, but Safe Democrat regardless
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (D-NY) - Safe Democrat
Heinrich, Martin (D-NM) - Safe Democrat
Hirono, Mazie K. (D-HI) - Safe Democrat
Kaine, Tim (D-VA) - Likely Democrat
Klobuchar, Amy (D-MN) - Safe Democrat
Manchin, Joe, III (D-WV) - Likely Republican
Menendez, Robert (D-NJ) - Safe Democrat
Murphy, Christopher (D-CT) - Safe Democrat
Rosen, Jacky (D-NV) - Lean Democrat
Stabenow, Debbie (D-MI) - Safe Democrat
Tester, Jon (D-MT) - Likely Republican (Safe Republican if Tester retires)
Warren, Elizabeth (D-MA) - Safe Democrat
Whitehouse, Sheldon (D-RI) - Safe Democrat

Republicans don’t have to worry about losing any seats and can concentrate on picking up seats.

They will likely pick up Montana and West Virginia, giving them control of the Senate. I think Ohio is very winnable and possibly Wisconsin. Republicans have a possibility of redeeming themselves in Nevada and an outside shot in Pennsylvania. Arizona is a good possibility if Republicans get a decent nominee and Sinema and the Democratic nominee split the Democratic vote.

But I think it is very likely Republicans will control the Senate as a result of 2024.

Beyond simple bare control, 51 to 49, much is up to Republicans themselves and it will be entirely their own fault if they do not capitalize on this favorable cycle, just as it was entirely their own fault they crashed and burned in 2022. Nominate good candidates and they could potentially have 53 to 47 or even 54 to 46. Nominate Oz’s, Masters’ and Walker’s and they will be at the bare 51 to 49.

Samm · 2022-12-17T07:16:43.066Z

Romney is a Republican? Well, I’ll be!

gooddad409 · 2022-12-17T14:25:15.119Z

Samm:

Romney is a Republican? Well, I’ll be!

Not much of one.

Safiel · 2023-01-05T17:41:56.823Z

Debbie Stabenow is retiring.

Pending emergence of candidates, I will change Michigan from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat.

I am not particularly hopeful though. Michigan has slid left in recent years.

Orygun · 2023-01-05T18:02:50.951Z

Yeah- no doubt in my mind that the Senate will move back into the GOP’s hands in 24. The GOP is favored right now to take the Senate, keep the House and win the presidency with DeSantis. It could be a very big year the Repubs.

LucyLou · 2023-12-15T00:02:03.248Z

As of December 2023, be Wisconsin GOP has yet to scare up anyone to run against Tammy Baldwin for Senate in 2024. So they may be stuck having to run Fake Sheriff David Clarke

Esquire – 14 Dec 23

Wisconsin Republicans Are Seriously Into Sheriff David Clarke For Senate?

This guy was the Milwaukee county sheriff during which time one prisoner died of thirst while in custody and a woman was handcuffed all the way through labor.

Camp · 2024-05-29T12:19:48.195Z

Bob Casey has latched on to his key to victory. Blaming the market for Biden policy failures.

Listen to how he explains “shrinkflation” in such derisive terms.

Polls are closing in on Casey.

realclearpolling.com

2024 Pennsylvania Senate Election: McCormick vs. Casey Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate Election between McCormick and Casey with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.

biggestal99 · 2024-05-29T12:56:16.494Z

Camp:

Polls are closing in on Casey.

yeah the polls “only” have casey up 5%.

casey will beat mccormick in November.

Allan

Camp · 2024-05-29T13:01:31.869Z

Casey is used to winning by twice that and the more recent polls are 4% and less. Close to the margin of error.

Fact is that Casey has done nothing and Fetterman is rather grandly pointing this out.

McCormick is a vet. Casey is a silver spoon wannabe.

The shrinkflation ad was hilariously inept.

ohknow35 · 2024-05-29T15:25:41.881Z

68-32 Reps.

Guvnah · 2024-05-29T16:00:49.156Z

Safiel:

much is up to Republicans themselves and it will be entirely their own fault if they do not capitalize on this favorable cycle, just as it was entirely their own fault they crashed and burned in 2022.

This should be repeated.

Camp · 2024-07-01T12:54:05.815Z

The PA senate race just got much tighter and Casey silence is really hurting him.

Yet Mr. Casey and his campaign remained noticeably silent Friday. While prominent Pennsylvania Democrats such as U.S. Sen. John Fetterman and Gov. Josh Shapiro issued statements of support for Mr. Biden — with Mr. Fetterman urging Democrats and observers to “chill the [expletive] out” — Mr. Casey as of Friday afternoon hadn’t publicly commented on the debate. His campaign did not respond to multiple messages seeking comment.

Mr. McCormick told the Post-Gazette, “I don’t know how you could sit there — forget party — as an American and watch President Biden’s performance and not be deeply troubled. It was very sad. … Every American is trying to make sense of that. Sen. Casey needs to say whether he thinks President Biden’s the guy to lead America into the future.”

Mr. McCormick held his hand up and crossed two fingers. “Sen. Casey and President Biden are like this. They call each other their best friends … and I think Sen. Casey should speak out.”

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Concern, not panic, for Bob Casey in Pennsylvania Senate race after Joe...

WASHINGTON — For almost 10 months, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and his Republican challenger, David McCormick, have sought to link each other with the unpopular...

Camp · 2024-07-05T22:35:34.297Z

Interesting.

CHIPS act did nothing for PA.

‘Casey’s Cartel’: NRSC Exposes How Democrat Bob Casey’s Family Has Engaged in ‘Cynical Self-Dealing,’ ‘Graft’ https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/07/05/caseys-cartel-nrsc-exposes-democrat-bob-caseys-family-has-engaged-in-cynical-self-dealing-graft/

Camp · 2024-07-10T12:51:34.672Z

Interestingly Casey ads have been accusing McCormick of this.

Breitbart – 10 Jul 24

Dem Bob Casey's China Coziness Takes Center Stage in PA Senate Race

Sen. Bob Casey's (D-PA) coziness with China is taking center stage in Pennsylvania's Senate race against GOP candidate Dave McCormick.

Ben_Natuf · 2024-07-10T21:43:28.900Z

Camp:

Interestingly Casey ads have been accusing McCormick of this.

of course they are, accuse them of what we’re doing is the democrat playbook.

LucyLou · 2024-08-14T19:21:36.456Z

Senate primary in Wisconsin yesterday.

Tammy Baldwin incumbent Democrat running unopposed approximately 568,000 votes.

Republican primary three contenders, total votes for Republicans approximately 552,000.

This is despite 2 count them 2, Republican legislature ballot measures that would have changed the State Constitution to benefit themselves . Those measures were not only to benefit themselves but were meant to juice up GOP turnout.

The GOP ballot measures were shellacked in defeat and Republican turnout for the GOP Senate primary could not match Democrats.

Adam · 2024-08-14T21:23:59.652Z

LucyLou:

Senate primary in Wisconsin yesterday.

Tammy Baldwin incumbent Democrat running unopposed approximately 568,000 votes.

Republican primary three contenders, total votes for Republicans approximately 552,000.

This is despite 2 count them 2, Republican legislature ballot measures that would have changed the State Constitution to benefit themselves . Those measures were not only to benefit themselves but were meant to juice up GOP turnout.

The GOP ballot measures were shellacked in defeat and Republican turnout for the GOP Senate primary could not match Democrats.

That makes no sense. I’ve been told by “experts” here that the Walz nomination just cost the Democrats Wisconsin. An actual claim made here. Good times.

LucyLou · 2024-08-14T21:30:26.966Z

Adam:

LucyLou:

Senate primary in Wisconsin yesterday.

Tammy Baldwin incumbent Democrat running unopposed approximately 568,000 votes.

Republican primary three contenders, total votes for Republicans approximately 552,000.

This is despite 2 count them 2, Republican legislature ballot measures that would have changed the State Constitution to benefit themselves . Those measures were not only to benefit themselves but were meant to juice up GOP turnout.

The GOP ballot measures were shellacked in defeat and Republican turnout for the GOP Senate primary could not match Democrats.

That makes no sense. I’ve been told by “experts” here that the Walz nomination just cost the Democrats Wisconsin. An actual claim made here. Good times.

Yesterday’s WI primary, with the added boost of 2 GOP ballot initiatives to boost turnout:

Trump–477,000 votes
Biden–522,000 votes

We vote we win

So will go November

Samm · 2024-08-14T22:15:00.837Z

The advantage of the incumbency is undeniable.

LucyLou · 2024-08-22T22:21:50.034Z

Rasmussen, Democrat Tammy Baldwin up by 10.

This is before the actual election where the Dems have a top line gotv operation and WISGOP has nothing.

WISCONSIN
Tammy Baldwin (D-Inc) 52% (+10)
Eric Hovde (R) 42%