Final 4th Quarter GDP Numbers(and 2018) at 830am

Okay, last numbers for 4th quarter and 2018. Original estimate 2.6%. Normally there are three estimates, but because of the shutdown, this is the last one. I think it drops. I think a lot of people think it drops. I think it drops to 2.2%. But we have 30 minutes before the release. Also, I’ll note that Trump is lying to people about 3.1% gdp growth for the year, but if this new estimate drops enough even that lie won’t make sense.


And I’m talking to myself here, but spot on. 2.2%


Since I am not an economic wiz, can we now determine the GDP for FY18?

Anytime we get below 4% unemployment a recession is a year or 2 away. Idk about this last quarter, but i suspect we will have a recession late 2019 early 2020

2.2% growth and $trillion deficits. This is ok in the new republican world

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With the revision, it puts GDP for CY2018 (GDP is measured in calendar years rather than fiscal) at $18,566.4 billion with an annual increase of 2.857%. Trump’s made up 2017Q4 - 2018Q4 metric is now 2.97%, lol. I’m laughing so hard that even with that, he lost the 3% talking point.


Well, fiscal year is different than calendar year, but for 2018 it’s 2.9%. Don’t remember people bringing up a fiscal year gdp number. But 2018 is 2.9%. Trump has been trying to claim that year on year growth for 4th quarter was was 3.1%(it’s 3.0%) so he met his goal of 3% growth. Which is ridiculous. Obama had multiple year on year growths of over three percent.

Thanks for the quick and dirty.

Welp, I’m sure the pretzel logic will begin. As well as blaming feds for raising interest rates, Democrats winning House, Mueller investigation.


I won’t give him the ceremony of rounding to 1 decimal since it’s a made up metric—2.97%! :slight_smile:

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Fair point. If he’s going to mislead/lie to people he doesn’t get to round. Although technically BEA does mention year on year growth. But they mention all kinds of ■■■■■

The new talking point will be that decimal points are irrelevant.

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So, 2% growth for the year?:grinning:

As a bonus prize he managed to run nearly a 1 trillion dollar deficit at full unemployment too. That ought to look good on the resume.



The sad reality is this won’t keep him from lying about it though. And most of the morons who take his word as gospel will believe it and also spout it off. It’s unreal how many people willingly live in an alternate reality and just don’t care.

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I wonder if he will brag about his GDP at his campaign rally tonight.

I remember when he was promising 4,5,6%…

Well considering this:

The Fed kept the rate at zero between 2008 and 2015. Recession ended in June 2009.

Rate for the 7 years was .25%

2015 rate goes up .25% to .5%

2016 rate goes up .25% to .75%

2017 rate goes up .75 % to 1.5%

2018 Rage goes up yet another .25% to 1.75%

Now with things slowing down, FED says they don’t forsee any more rate hikes for 2018.

Gee I wonder why the economy cooled down. 2008 to 2017 (when Trump was sworn in, rate went up a total of .5% Essentially 2 years of Trump and the rate goes up a full percent.

If things cool down enough later this year, will the FED drop the rate, or keep it where it is and let Trump suffer?

If the Trump economy can’t handle what’s still considered historically low interest rates despite massive spending increases and tax cuts, is it really the best economy we’ve had in a while or is it simply just like what we’ve had the last 10 years?


When was the last time in history the FED rate was essentially zero for 7 years, then over 4 years it went up 1.25%?

Deep state

Its obvious the deep state fed is out to get Trump. They should be investigated

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