Funding for the government expires on Feb. 15 at which point a new border security deal is supposed to be in place.
Given the large public sentiment against Trump’s wall and the very strong opposition to it among the voters who elected the House of Representatives’ Democratic majority it seems unlikely that the Democrats will agree to funding for Trump’s wall but likely they will agree to significant funding for other elements of border security/immigration enforcement.
Such a bill would pass the House. Maybe it would contain enough “enforcement” that Trump can claim a win, but if it does not what happens?
Or “Beware the Ides of February”
Option 1. The Republican majority in the Senate votes it down (saves Trump from having to veto) and shuts the government down again
Option 2: It passes the Senate. Trump signs it and declares victory based on whatever is in it and then runs on 2020 blasting the Democrats for allowing crime, drugs, illegal immigrants.
Option 3. It passes the Senate and Trump vetoes it. Trump has shut the government down again
Option 4. It passes the Senate and Trump signs; but then declares a National Emergency to allow himself to allocate wall funding. That would end up in the courts immediately, probably fast tracked to the Supremes.
What do you think is the most likely scenario?
The Republicans have to feel hemmed in by the latest ABC/Washington Post poll today that puts Trump approval at 37%, disapproval at 58%. That’s a net -21% disapprove, contrasted with -13% in the previous ABC/Washington Post poll. And Quinnipiac is reporting that voters think the Democrats are more effective than Trump on border security by a 5% margin. That finding is unprecedented. Regardless of Trump’s desires, the Republican politicians in the Senate are going to feel constrained by these numbers.
I think we end up at Option 0. Pundits like Coulter will rant, but in the end Trump’s base will vote for Trump because he’ll be their only option. Love to hear other opinions.
Democrats should introduce same Schumer-Rounds-Collins amendment as they did last February that failed 54-45. Permanent status for DACA recipients and $25 billion for border security. Republicans join. Trump accepts and claims victory.
This makes the most sense which is why it probably won’t happen. Both sides get a victory.
I’m guessing it’ll be along the lines of option 2 in the OP. Democrats give non-specific money for border protection, likely in excess of $5 billion. Trump accepts and uses it as a talking point both to say he tried and Democrats were obstructionists, and to continue fear mongering related to illegal immigrants.
Trump would write up a real proposal for the wall - let use know exactly what he is talking about. How will he handle private property? What areas will get wall? What wall design etc…
Sounds good to me but we need to eventually address the massive elephant in the room which is…why do individuals/corporations keep getting away with hiring thousands of illegal immigrants every single day?
What you don’t want is clear, but what do you think will happen on Feb. 15? The thrust of this thread is to predict what Congress and Trump will do, not to talk about what we want. Do you believe that the Feb. 15 deal will give you what you want vis-a-vis DACA given that the Supreme Court is not allowing Trump to overrule Obama’s DACA protections in the coming year?
Because if trump fixed that he would hurt himself and a lot of the people he’s traditionally done business with. He’s done such a masterful job fooling idiots into thinking that a wall will solve all our problems while snickering in the background, hiring undocumented workers at his businesses.
Of course that is what President Nixon did. But that only happened after the Republican leadership decided to jettison Nixon and sent Barry Goldwater at the head of a Congressional delegation to tell him it was time to go. The current Republican leadership seems nowhere near such a step with Donald Trump.
It would be the most toxic thing he could do, legalize 3,000,000 people he will lose his base, and then who else does he have.
I would imagine he has smarter advisors than that. I’m not sure what will happen if I had to guess they’re will be a national emergency declared all that has been offered by the democrats is $1 for a border structure.
Tongue-in-cheek, of course. But it seems to be Mueller’s strategy with his slow, methodical indictments of Trump associates. As the revealed evidence continues to show that coordination with Russian operatives occurred, and it becomes more obvious that Trump HAD to have known/directed it, political cover for Republicans will continue to disappear. It will reach a tipping point, probably before actual impeachment, as it did with Nixon. The only question will be whether Trump is arrogant/stupid enough to resist.
