Existing Home Sales: Median price up slightly, units sold drop below COVID lows . . . kissing 2010 lows

I guess maybe the nicer bigger homes are selling.
That would explain the price increase
The median U.S. home price edged up 1.3% from January last year to $359,000.

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Fortunately

  • this time there are not many homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages
  • this time there does not appear to be an crisis of fraudulently rated MBS

For both reasons I do NOT expect the housing market to suffer as much this time as it did last time.

From the CNN link

The seasonally adjusted annualized sales pace dropped from a pace of over 6 million units a year ago to 4 million last month.

That is a very serious drop in the (annualized) number of homes sold.
That is a 33% drop in the number of homes sold.

However, expensive homes are selling so the middle price rose from $355K to $359k . . . . or every single home went up in price, but I consider that less likely.

I can’t speak for anywhere but NJ, but every house went up in price. It’s ridiculous here. People are buying houses at over asking price on a regular basis.

After my mother passed, I sold her 1 bedroom house at 25% over asking price just over the weekend. It sold for more than the 2 bedroom houses were on the market for. So now those will shoot up.

My house is selling for over 500k now. It’s anything but fancy. An 1800 sq ft colonial with a 1 car garage. It’s definitely not just the fancy houses in NJ.

I’m on the other coast from you.

Same here. Even the homes gutted after the hurricane are selling for asking or above asking. Granted, the prices reflect that the home has been gutted but still they aren’t inexpensive.

I guess it depends how one defines “nicer bigger homes.”

Once scenario that fits the events exactly is

  • “Normally” 5 million homes would have sold
  • During the era of low interest rates 6 million homes sold instead
  • Now that rates are normalizing, only 4 million home sold

The “drop” from 6m to 4m was happened
MORE in homes priced under $355k and LESS in home priced over $355k.

Numerous other scenarios are possible, but I consider this the most likely one.

Prices vary so wildly from market to market, it is really hard to nail out any cohesive standard.

In Surry County, North Carolina, we have livable homes on the market for under $100,000 and plenty in the $100,000 to $150,000 range.

One house in the county right now on the market for barely over $1 Million and it likely is still priced too high.

We have a glut of houses at the low end due to the falling population in this rural county. But we are short of houses at the top end. But even then, it is hard to go over $1 Million except for a handful of very exceptional properties.

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As far as the recent home report goes $355k is the “magic line.”
That is the median from which home prices are scored

If one or two (or in this case 2 million) homes below that line fail to sell,
while homes above that price continue selling, then . . . viola magic.
The median selling price increased.

The same happens anytime the bottom half drops out of the market more frequently than the top half. (eg 3,000 from the bottom failed to sell, but only 2,000 from the top failed to sell.)

I don;t know that I concur with calling this “mortgage collapse.”

It is not my label. Still the graph seems accurate to me.