Tim
258
As best I can tell the asterisk notes that the actual poll results includes third party candidate detail but RCP decided to include only Biden/Trump results on the page.
For instance the Monmouth poll shows Biden/Trump at 50/45 so one would assume around 5% undecided. When you dig into the actual Monmouth poll, there are polling details for Jorgensen at 1% and “other” at <1%, but those results are not included on RCP.
DOLOOP
260
OK.
So, that new “unscalable” wall they’re building outside the White House now.
Is that meant to keep people out or keep 'em in?
Maybe he deserves a rest. He’s been working pretty hard for the last few weeks.
DOLOOP
262
He’s been campaigning hard, that’s for sure.
Sknyluv
263
I still won’t make a prediction because … it’s 2020 and everything sucks. My head says Biden because 1) shrinking Trump base 2) less undecided voters 3) no Hillary 4) no viable third party 5) Trumps record (COVID) and all of that should be enough. But I’m a pessimist and ultimately think Trump will win again because the system favors the GOP and … well, everything sucks. I’m prepared for the worst, hoping for the best.
So tomorrow night, or in a few days if Trump wins, don’t come at me with a bunch of bull ■■■■ “told you so”. Because I fully expect Trump to win.
This is why trump is putting all his eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.
https://twitter.com/michlkosinski/status/1323484861647171584?s=21
Voter turnout is at record highs… I do not see how Trump can win with more voters voting.
1 Like
If he’s more, way more popular, than the media have been telling you, and they have been lying to you for four years, he could win by a lot.
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He’s not. I guarantee he won’t win the popular vote.
2 Likes
My is Trump 321 Biden 217.
Turnout on the right is also record high.
Turnout for Black, Latino and young voters is at record highs.
That is not good for Trump. It’s why Georgia and Texas are in play. (Texas less so)
1 Like
Sknyluv
271
This 538 article by Nate is helping me this morning. Sums up a lot of reasons why I think Biden has the edge going into election day.
Trump only barely won the election four years ago, against a highly unpopular opponent in Clinton. In 2016, 18 percent of voters in the national exit poll disliked both Trump and Clinton, and those voters went for Trump by 17 points. If they’d merely split evenly, Clinton would have (narrowly) won the Electoral College. Many of those voters actually like Biden, though, who has much better favorability ratings than either Clinton or Trump.
Meanwhile, the election comes at a time where a 2:1 majority of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country amid a COVID-19 pandemic that his killed 233,000 Americans — and which has gotten worse in recent weeks — along with high (though improving) unemployment, a summer of racial protests, and continuous erosions of democratic norms by Trump and his administration. Trump’s approval rating has been in negative territory through virtually the entirety of his presidency. Trump’s electoral record is hardly unblemished: Democrats won the popular vote for the U.S. House by nearly 9 points in 2018, about the same margin that Trump now trails in national polls, in an election where polls and forecasts were highly accurate.
In other words, given everything going on in the country — and Biden’s popularity relative to Clinton — it simply shouldn’t be that hard to imagine a small number of voters switching from Trump to Biden. Indeed, that’s what polls show: There are more Trump-to-Biden voters than Clinton-to-Trump voters. The lion’s share of people who voted for Gary Johnson or another third party candidate four years ago also say they plan to vote for Biden.
Trump might be able to overcome this with a disproportionately high Republican turnout. But while Republican turnout might be very high, Democratic turnout almost certainly will be too, as evidenced by, among other things: Democrats’ equal or higher enthusiasm level in polls; their very high numbers in early and absentee voting, and their greater fundraising prowess throughout the cycle.
4 Likes
WuWei
272
I don’t get it. How can we all not know today that the worst President in history was beaten in a landslide?
How is this even a doubt?
Propaganda works on a great many people.
I have 305 Trump Biden 233.
JayJay
275
Pennsylvania will not read out tonight but if he nabs Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and NE-2 he gets precisely 270 and doesn’t need PA (assuming everything else stays the same as 2016).
If he has to rely on PA to win we will have to wait until the end of the week to know the results.
3 Likes
Thought with my gut and finally made a map. Thought I broke it but nope, my outcome is an electoral draw.
Congratulations to no one.
conan
277
I see they’re already cheating in Philly.
