In the real news, the fed was reporting this morning and things are going great. Labor participation is increasing and wages are rising. So, the fed is anticipating more rate hikes. Wages would be rising even faster but so many people are reentering the work force at entry level wages it’s masking the wage increased of those continuously employed. Trump is cool.
"“Overall, we see the risk of the economy unexpectedly weakening as roughly balanced with the possibility of the economy growing faster than we currently anticipate,” Powell said.
“The unemployment rate is low and expected to fall further. Americans who want jobs have a good chance of finding them,” he added."
"Powell made brief mention of the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and its global competitors, saying only that it is “difficult to predict” what the ramifications will be on the economy.
However, the “upbeat tone” from the testimony likely means the trade issues won’t keep the Fed from hiking rates, said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics."
They left out the part where he said “We don’t want countries putting up barriers to our goods”…
So, 50/50 chance the economy weakens versus grows faster than expected. Bold prediction there.
Here’s reality. The stock market has been flat for 7 months and inflation is at a 6 year high, outpacing wage increases. I hope the economy improves, but I don’t have rose colored glasses on yet.
The Atlanta Fed (GDPNow forecast) predicted Q1 2018 GDP growth would be 5.4% and it turned out to be 2.2%. Not sure I’d put a whole lot of stock in their predictions at this point.
Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
