Economic Effects Of Partial Shutdown

Politics
1

The CBO has come out with its estimates on the economic effects of the partial government shutdown [1].

It looks like the effect on 2018Q4 is about $3 billion which will come out to be around a -0.2 percent change to annualized GDP for Q4. This is not good news for Trump trying to best Obama’s best year in terms of GDP growth. He needs an annualized return of 2.52% in Q4 for 2018 to match Obama’s 2.88% in 2015.

As of Jan 25, Atlanta Fed is estimating 2.7%.
Moody’s is estimating 2.5%.
NY Fed is estimating 2.57%.

All of these estimates were prior to the CBO report.

We’ll see what the BEA comes out with on Wednesday at 8:30am.

  1. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937
2

hang on. so Trump needs $75 Billion for the wall, is asking for $5B and cost us $3B?

worst businessman ever.

3

I would have thought this would have spurred more conversation. Hmm.

Those who support Trump: was the shutdown worth it?

4

And because of the shutdown, we have the GDP reports delayed by about a month. What a cluster:

https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2019-01-30/new-dates-set-some-delayed-releases

5

Must be fake news…

Trump worshippers assured us that the shutdown would prove that the government has only a negative effect on the economy and shutting it down was going to prove that…

6

Trump thinks the shutdown was a good thing for him politically, so he doesn’t care.