Early August midterm outlook

[Eagle-Keeper]

I would say the SCOTUS is more to blame than Trump.

[W_and_C]

@Eagle-Keeper

I would say the SCOTUS is more to blame than Trump.

Yeah but their job isn’t to affect elections, Trump’s is.

[Safiel]

@WuWei

@Safiel

A 52 to 48 Democratic Senate is looking much more likely.

And while I still think Republicans will take the House, the margin is clearly thinning.

The Republican majority will likely be in the 220 to 225 range rather than the 230 to 235 range.

(image snipped for brevity)

Trump put the Justices on who put Dobbs over the top.

Trump’s endorsements have led to some horrible Republican nominees (i.e. Dr. Oz).

And Trump’s refusal to let his legitimate loss in 2020 go is also harming Republicans up and down the line.

So while Trump is not completely the cause, he clearly is a major factor.

[GrandWazoo]

@W_and_C

That sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall. Democrats notched a huge victory in New York’s 19th CD last night as Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51% to 49% in a Hudson Valley special election both parties had invested in.

By all accounts that district should have been a slam-dunk for the Republicans.

[JayJay]

Dobbs did that!

So yeah I guess you could say Trump did that…with a YUUGE assist from Mitch.

[WuWei]

@Eagle-Keeper

I would say the SCOTUS is more to blame than Trump.

I wouldn’t. You’re going to lose it by the same number as bad Trump picks.

And probably give Brandon dumb ass a second term.

Trump is poison.

[WuWei]

The problem is not Dobbs, the problem is the state governments that went crazy after Dobbs.

[Safiel]

@WuWei

The problem is not Dobbs, the problem is the state governments that went crazy after Dobbs.

Which shows a fundamental flaw in our system. Unfortunately, the extremes of both parties have control of the respective parties.

On the Republican side, that shows in politicians much more extreme than the voters, as was so devastatingly shown in Kansas.

I am in the odd position of agreeing legally with Dobbs, yet being moderately pro-choice.

Ultimately, Republicans are going to pay a price and a continuing price for their position on abortion. That price is already being paid.

[JayJay]

@WuWei

The problem is not Dobbs, the problem is the state governments that went crazy after Dobbs.

That was inevitable.

[WuWei]

@JayJay

@WuWei

The problem is not Dobbs, the problem is the state governments that went crazy after Dobbs.

That was inevitable.

Roe was bad law.

[JayJay]

@WuWei

@JayJay

@WuWei

The problem is not Dobbs, the problem is the state governments that went crazy after Dobbs.

That was inevitable.

Roe was bad law.

Be that as it may, the right wing led states overreacting to Dobbs was inevitable.

[WuWei]

The latter does not forgive the former. The SCOTUS has no business legislating rights.

[Camp]

OK. Good one.

[Camp]

Our system isn’t supposed to be flawless.

Your ODD position is the popular one. I agree with it.

Inflation is more destructive to people of moderate means than is being calculated into the election fallout.

Oz is in the race again thanks to Fetterman deceit over his health. Fetterman has a month or so to regain his public speaking skills or he will not win. As bad of a candidate as Oz may be.

[zantax]

@W_and_C

More bad news for Republicans.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/2022-primaries/red-wave-looks-more-ripple

That sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall. Democrats notched a huge victory in New York’s 19th CD last night as Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51% to 49% in a Hudson Valley special election both parties had invested in. That’s roughly the same margin President Biden had carried the seat by in 2020. The result shouldn’t be shocking, considering Democrats had outperformed in other recent specials in NE-01 and MN-01. But Molinaro, regarded as a pragmatic executive of blue-leaning Dutchess County, had led in multiple polls throughout the race. Ryan, the younger Ulster County executive and decorated Army veteran, prevailed after a late push to make abortion rights the centerpiece of the campaign.

You think voters everywhere are going to be as motivated by Dobbs as New York?

[Camp]

I am sure they will be.

Abortion choice Grrrrr.

[FreeAndClear]

49 state drumming!!!

[TommyLucchese]

@Camp

I am sure they will be.

Abortion choice Grrrrr.

You say this like it’s not true.

[biggestal99]

@zantax

You think voters everywhere are going to be as motivated by Dobbs as New York?

already are, look at the recent new voter registration in swing states.

woman outpacing men since dobbs.

Allan

[W_and_C]

@zantax

@W_and_C

More bad news for Republicans.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/2022-primaries/red-wave-looks-more-ripple

That sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall. Democrats notched a huge victory in New York’s 19th CD last night as Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51% to 49% in a Hudson Valley special election both parties had invested in. That’s roughly the same margin President Biden had carried the seat by in 2020. The result shouldn’t be shocking, considering Democrats had outperformed in other recent specials in NE-01 and MN-01. But Molinaro, regarded as a pragmatic executive of blue-leaning Dutchess County, had led in multiple polls throughout the race. Ryan, the younger Ulster County executive and decorated Army veteran, prevailed after a late push to make abortion rights the centerpiece of the campaign.

You think voters everywhere are going to be as motivated by Dobbs as New York?

Yes, specifically women. Specifically suburban women.

You realize that 19th congressional district is upstate NY , not NYC , right ? This was a D district that was ripe for flipping.

However - plenty of time for that trend to be reversed, American voters generally have memory of a fish.