Early August midterm outlook

Politics
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Looking first at the House of Representatives.

According to Larry Sabato, Republicans have 189 Safe seats for 2022, almost as much as the combined total of Democratic Safe, Likely and Lean seats which is 191. Republican Safe, Likely and Lean seats equal to 217, one short of an outright majority.

Essentially there is a ZERO plausible chance of Democrats holding the House of Representatives.

Right now, the most likely outcome is 235 Republican seats to 200 Democrat seats.

The Senate on the other hand, comes down to five races.

Pennsylvania - Republicans have pretty much thrown away this seat. You can mark this as D+1.

Georgia - Republicans could still win this, but clearly Warnock has the edge, most due to Walker’s scandals. Republicans NEED to win this seat, but as in Pennsylvania, a bad candidate will fritter this away. Right now, I will keep this as D-HOLD.

Arizona - Does not look good at all for Republicans here. The problem here is not so much the candidate, but the fact that Arizona is rapidly trending blue. I will keep this as D-HOLD.

Nevada - This is pretty much a true tossup race and the one chance for Republicans to pick up a seat this cycle. Right now, I will keep this BARELY D-HOLD. But that could change.

Wisconsin - The primary is today. For now I will keep this race barely R-HOLD.

As things are right now, a net change of one seat from Republican to Democrat will result in a 51 to 49 Democrat majority.

If Democrats can take Wisconsin, it would reach 52 to 48.

On the other hand, if Republicans hold Wisconsin and take Nevada, they could keep things at 50 to 50.

Fairly narrow possible spread to be sure. But I see no plausible scenario where Republicans take the Senate.

Legislatively, of course, the Democratic program is dead in the House of Representatives.

But keeping the Senate would allow Democrats to keep the Article III Judges coming and with no possibility of passing legislation, Democrats would likely focus almost exclusively on pushing Judges through.

Republicans would primarily benefit by being able to conduct hearings of their choice in the House against Biden.

The mother of all mixed bags, but that is how I see it.

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That’s what it will be.

Thanks Dumbass

5vmoxh
5vmoxh750Ă—500 58.4 KB

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What is your take on Ohio senate ? I see JD Vance as another flawed candidate and he’s been trailing in every poll I’ve seen thus far.

Additionally, new poll is out today with Ted Budd (R) trailing by 4 in North Carolina.

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I would not put too much into that one poll. Most polling has Budd maintaining a small lead and my intuition leads me to believe Budd will win, though he too is a flawed candidate.

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Ohio is a bit more tricky. Interestingly, the polling notwithstanding, most major race rating organizations still seem to hold this as Likely Republican.

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Yup I entirely agree with your post. Purple states followed Trump down the rabbit hole of bad candidates that will end up allowing Dems to keep the Senate. The House will turn over to the GOP (and likely endless investigations).

And I agree that legislatively Biden’s term will be over in January and that all that will be left will be judges and foreign policy.

Still- Biden has racked up a couple big legislative wins with Infrastructure and the climate change bills- especially as he had a deadlocked 50-50 senate.

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That’s all we get nowadays. On both sides.

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Fetterman was going to win no matter what, I think.

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GA is a very interesting case. Herschel Walker is popular because he use to play football for UGA - but that and his Trump endorsements are his only “assets” (I had to put that in quotes as I consider a Trump endorsement more of a liability than an asset).

On the liability side, he’s had scandal after scandal, misstep after misstep. It’s almost like he’s TRYING to lose the race. Even republicans have recently put out a devastating ad against him.

Still, polling indicates he COULD pull it off. Not likely, but it is within the realm of possibility.

Personally, I think his candidacy is toast, but I could be wrong.

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I see repugs gaining about 245 to 190 in house.

The senate Oz is seriously flawed…but so is Fetterman. Fetterman should have been easy opponent to beat but damn…Oz?

Money that’s flowing into Fetterman campaign from California in tens of millions of dollars. Same for Ohio as well. Lot of outside money is flowing to Ryan. Ryan is another Biden. Vance needs to pound that home. His only shot IMO is holding NE Ohio.

As for Nev… Laxalt needs to make it about Masto sicking IRS on low to med working class. Las Vegas has lot of cash floating around and you know they’re going to be targeted…and targeted hard. Pound that home.

As for Wis I’ll wait.

NC will retain their senate seat.

As for NH…I’m going to say that’s going to flip. And libs can thank CoJ and FBI for that. Hassan doesn’t have the lead to fight that off.

OK that’s my two cents worth.

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I’m not sure Fetterman is what Pennsylvania really wants. Problem is they’ll be enough dumbasses to make it happen. Fetterman will be a do nothing taxpayer leech like Ralphie Warnock.

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The problem is Oz.

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Why ? His association to Trump? Oz in my opinion provided a measure of clarity during the pandemic from the perspective of a physician. He was a heart surgeon fer crissakes. He dared to challenge CDC lockdown recommendations and Herr Fauci’s dodging the questions of his involvement in the Wuhan research lab.
Fetterman is a fraud passing himself off as a shorts and t shirt wearing Everyman. He lived off his family’s money well into his 40’s and other than being Wolfe’s Lt Gov, has he ever had a job the taxpayers didn’t subsidize?
But the Dims are pumping Fetterman hard and the machines in Philthydelphia and (unfortunately) Pittsburgh have the numbers to make it happen.

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And Dr Oz is?

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No because he lives in New Jersey.

Pennsylvania doesn’t like carpetbaggers.

Fetterman is harping on that all the time…and it will work.

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I don’t see the problem with Oz, isn’t he fairly popular in New Jersey?

WW

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I’m from WPA and still have fam there. Their opinion of Fetterman is he’s a know nothing do nothing chooch collecting a paycheck.
Oz is an accomplished physician and surgeon who has at least raised the issues of education in this country and it’s woeful state.
We’re I voting in PA I’m likely to vote for Oz. The other guy is Wolfe 2.0

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He hasn’t been campaigning at all.

He doesn’t appear to want to win.

Fetterman is in bad shape. His wife is running things.

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At least if Fetterman were to have (another) medical emergency during say a debate with Oz? Medical help would be within arms reach.

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Yeah. The heart surgeon vs the heart patient.

Oz is too nice for this arena.

Oz was going to medical school and a practicing physician while Fetterman was living off his wealthy parents.