Looking first at the House of Representatives.
According to Larry Sabato, Republicans have 189 Safe seats for 2022, almost as much as the combined total of Democratic Safe, Likely and Lean seats which is 191. Republican Safe, Likely and Lean seats equal to 217, one short of an outright majority.
Essentially there is a ZERO plausible chance of Democrats holding the House of Representatives.
Right now, the most likely outcome is 235 Republican seats to 200 Democrat seats.
The Senate on the other hand, comes down to five races.
Pennsylvania - Republicans have pretty much thrown away this seat. You can mark this as D+1.
Georgia - Republicans could still win this, but clearly Warnock has the edge, most due to Walker’s scandals. Republicans NEED to win this seat, but as in Pennsylvania, a bad candidate will fritter this away. Right now, I will keep this as D-HOLD.
Arizona - Does not look good at all for Republicans here. The problem here is not so much the candidate, but the fact that Arizona is rapidly trending blue. I will keep this as D-HOLD.
Nevada - This is pretty much a true tossup race and the one chance for Republicans to pick up a seat this cycle. Right now, I will keep this BARELY D-HOLD. But that could change.
Wisconsin - The primary is today. For now I will keep this race barely R-HOLD.
As things are right now, a net change of one seat from Republican to Democrat will result in a 51 to 49 Democrat majority.
If Democrats can take Wisconsin, it would reach 52 to 48.
On the other hand, if Republicans hold Wisconsin and take Nevada, they could keep things at 50 to 50.
Fairly narrow possible spread to be sure. But I see no plausible scenario where Republicans take the Senate.
Legislatively, of course, the Democratic program is dead in the House of Representatives.
But keeping the Senate would allow Democrats to keep the Article III Judges coming and with no possibility of passing legislation, Democrats would likely focus almost exclusively on pushing Judges through.
Republicans would primarily benefit by being able to conduct hearings of their choice in the House against Biden.
The mother of all mixed bags, but that is how I see it.