Deficit Soaring Faster Than Expected


I bet ALL of these patriotic Americans will be out in full force soon to protest the deficit?



The Congressional Budget Office reports that faster growth under President Trump has already added $1.3 trillion to the 10-year federal revenue projection, with the CBO’s April economic adjustment alone showing an addition of $1.1 trillion—the single largest growth-driven revenue gain ever reported.

The CBO now projects that additional revenue from this economic surge will offset 88.2% of the estimated 10-year cost of the tax cut. That contrasts sharply with the CBO’s assessment that President Obama’s economic slump lost $3.2 trillion in projected 10-year revenues during his last three years—almost five times more revenue lost than was gained by his 2013 tax hike. These results have confirmed again that weak growth is the fastest way to lose revenue and strong growth is the fastest way to raise it.

In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit, relative to the size of the economy, would grow substantially over the next several years, stabilize for a few years, and then grow again over the rest of the 30-year period.

Why is that?

I read the CBO report.
This is what it says:
For the 2018–2027 period, CBO now projects a cumulative deficit that is $1.6 trillion larger than the $10.1 trillion that the agency anticipated in June. Projected revenues are lower by $1.0 trillion, and projected outlays are higher by $0.5 trillion.


Deficits don’t matter when a Republican is in the WH.

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DC infrastructure will not be able to handle the massive crowd of TPers. It’s gonna be a bigly huge uprising.

Where’s the part where the deficit is soaring? And what else is helping to push the deficit to a trillion as predicted for decades?

Fake news…

If you can’t read, why bother posting?


But, but, but…an op-ed put out by the White House gave me feelings. Right @Smyrna ? :laughing:

I would be, too, if I was basing my opinion on an article that can’t even get something right like averaging 6 numbers together (the average quarterly growth under Trump is 2.7, not 2.9).

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Yep…the WH repeated the WSJ. The WSJ used facts but you run with your “feelings”.

No, they did not use facts. They used a small manipulation of older data points, and attempted to construct a narrative to explain away the skyrocketing deficits and debt being accumulated by this administration. And that gave you warm and fuzzy feelings. But here in the real world, the deficits and debt continue to climb out of control.


Who is “they”?

No one would let previous administrations get away with such nonsense, but they will let this one do it.

It is a topsy turvey world.

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I have my tea bags strapped to my hat ready to go!

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I posted the relevant portion of the CBO report and a link. No response.

Don’t forget, Republicans had sunset provisions for the middle class tax cuts to squeak their bill under reconciliation rules. If those are continued as they promise they will, then things get even worse.

Deficits and Debt Would Be Larger If Some Current Policies Were Continued
CBO also analyzed an alternative scenario in which current law was altered to maintain major policies that are now in place and to provide more typical amounts of emergency funding than the sums provided for 2018. Specifically, CBO analyzed what would happen if:
More than 50 expiring revenue provisions were extended, including the individual income tax provisions of the 2017 tax act;
Delays in implementing certain taxes established by the Affordable Care Act were extended or made permanent;
Scheduled limits on discretionary appropriations did not take effect, and most appropriations instead grew each year from their 2018 amount at the rate of inflation; and
Lawmakers provided inflation-adjusted emergency appropriations for nondefense discretionary programs equal to the average amount of such funding from 2012 through 2017—about $11 billion—each year between 2019 and 2028, rather than the roughly $100 billion a year projected in the baseline.
In that scenario, far larger deficits and much greater debt would result than in CBO’s baseline projections for the 2019–2028 period. Deficits would be larger by an average of a full percentage point of GDP, rising by a total of $2.6 trillion to yield a cumulative deficit of nearly $15 trillion over that period. And debt held by the public would reach about 105 percent of GDP by the end of 2028, an amount that has been exceeded only once in the nation’s history. Moreover, the pressures contributing to that rise would accelerate and push debt up even more sharply in subsequent decades.

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Look at the GDP growth chart. The CBO bases its projections on a 2% GDP growth rate. Fiscal conservatives are projecting a 3% to 4% GDP growth as a result of the tax cuts. Time will tell who is right.

That’s cool if you believe that.

Just don’t pretend like the CBO backs you up, which is the point of the discussion that you have inserted yourself into.

I’m not pretending anything. As with any tax cut, the assumption is that it will stimulate the economy to pay for itself. The CBO would not really be in a position to make that kind of assumption and usually doesn’t.


With sustained 2% GDP growth, the CBO rightly projects severe deficits. But that all changes with sustained GDP growth in the 3% to 4% range.

It is absurd to declare one way or the other at this very early stage. But of course that won’t deter Trump haters from declaring the tax cuts to be a failure. Like it or not, only time will tell.