Daily 538 and predictit Dem house takeover thread (M-F) updated 0800EDT


Not a prediction thread unless you want to be so bold.

(0737EDT) 9-14-2018

Predictit.org (money driven) 72% chance
538 (stats driven) 83% chance



NYT/Siena live polled FL-26 and KS-02 last night, as well as a couple others. FL26 was already lean-D on 538, but KS-02 is now listed as a flip in the deluxe model. If the Dems flip a district like KS02, it’s going to be a slaughter. OTOH they could come within a point in it, and many other districts like it, and underwhelm.


Statistically speaking it will be most likely between a +15 (R’s breathe a sigh of relief) and +59 (a total annihilation) seat pick up for the dems



(0728EDT) 9-17-2018

Predictit.org (money driven) 68% chance
538 (stats driven) 83.1% chance

a little money for the r’s in the money market, not much change in the stats market.



I dont predict but if they take the house it is over…they take both and well…we will see trump use executive orders at the wazoo and the right will be just dandy with it.


if they take over the senate. LOL. Very few federal judges will be confirmed. (unless they fit the dems criterion)



I think Trump will sign whatever is put onto his desk. People take pictures of him and there’s a whole ceremony. His base will continue to support him no matter what he does, so there’s no downside.


If the democrats do take over the senate and they don’t get Kavanaugh confirmed by the end of this term, we will likely have a Supreme Court of 8 justices until at least 2021. If one or more of them step down in the interim, it will be less than 8.



I’m not voting this time around. Here’s hoping my fellow Democrats boycott as well.


Garland would be confirmed easily.


(0757EDT) 9-18-2018

Predictit.org (money driven) 70% chance
538 (stats driven) 82.3% chance

a little money comes in on the dems

and lone generic congressional poll was only +5 for the dems, stat driven down slightly



(0854EDT) 9-18-2018

Predictit.org (money driven) 70% chance
538 (stats driven) 80.5% chance

Money flat

IPSOS only generic poll yesterday was only +7



(0732EDT) 9-20-2018

Predictit.org (money driven) 70% chance
538 (stats driven) 79.6% chance

Money flat

Stats driven down down 1%



[quote=“biggestal99, post:14, topic:12632”]
(0732EDT) 9-20-2018

Predictit.org (money driven) 71% chance
538 (stats driven) 80.4% chance

Money up 1

Stats driven up 1%

Slight downward pressure week over week.

seeya on Monday. Have a great weekend



(0738EDT) 9-24-2018

Predictit.org (money driven) 68% chance
538 (stats driven) 80.4% chance

R;s take some money over the weekend

Stats practically unchanged.


Predictit.org (money driven) 68% chance
538 (stats driven) 80.1% chance

not much movement yesterday.

6 weeks out.