# Current Electoral Math

This is what I’ve always understood about President Carter. He was before my time.

Senate math: Major Changes.

Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

MT: Sheehy(R) up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
MI: Slotkin(D) up 3+ has not broken 50% in any poll
WI: Baldwin(D) up 3+ has broken 50% in one poll

NOTE: MT and WI Fall to contested

Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

OH: Brown(D) up 5+ has broken 50% in two polls
PA: Casey(D) up 4+ has broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Gallego(D) up 2 has not broken 50% in any poll
FL: Scott(R) up 5+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NV: Rosen(D) up 4+ has broken 50% in one poll

PA moves to competitive

Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

NM: Heinrich(D) up 7 has not broken 50% in any poll
TX: Cruz(R) up 7+ has broken 50% in 2 polls

Note: Bold denotes a possible flip

GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX

DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Biden wins

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Montana and WV are must have. Tester is very well liked in Montana, they will most likely vote him back in. Oh and Pa would be nice pick ups for republicans but highly unlikely. That would give republicans some insurance for 2026 election if they take Oh and Pa.

We have to realize one thing, the senate cannot fall into democrats hands ever again.

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Well of course the Senate will at one point become democrat controlled. Stupid to think otherwise.

I do not want any political party to have a perpetual hold on the Senate, Congress or the White House.

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I do…as long as libs talking about expanding SCOTUS. Unless republicans win it all this fall and expand it to 15.

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We (the GOP) has not had a president who emphasized fiscal discipline (cut spending) since Ronald Reagan. In Congress, we’d have to go back to the days of Paul Ryan and before that to Newt Gingrich.

(A person could even argue that those folks merely “talked the talk but did not restrain spending much.”)

Neither party is commited to cutting spending.
Neither party is committed to restraining spending.
Thus, I don’t see any advantage giving the Republicans perma-control.

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Oh I don’t disagree with you.

Repugs like cut taxes but not spending. Democrats front load their spending under previous president during their fiscal year…and than attempt to take credit for lowing spending.

We had this talk before, how democrats like to front load their spending and taking credit for deficit reduction.

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Oh and BTW LongIslandBob. I remember taking lot of flak from conservative members of this forum during Bush years.

It’s nice that you’re finally on board.

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In case @7426k is still around
here is the same chart presented in a more-proper (logarithmic) format.

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right now, Tester is down. I believe Sheehy has a good chance to beat him.

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Is Biden the come back kid as fox news claims?

ABC/Washington Post poll

Stating the obvious…that would imply that mess at the debate and on ABC had no effect on how people would vote. Whereas I would have thought people are so set in their choices already that it might not cause a huge shift, I would have thought it might move a few percentages. But no, not if that poll is correct.
Wow. Call off the campaigns. Everybody is already settled on how to vote and nothing will change it.
IF that poll is correct.

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Kim Kardashian has a better shot of walking away with that moniker than Biden.

Damn good topic/discussion Ben.

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House seats with the opportunity to flip (by party demographics) open seat most vulnerable

Contested (R1 to D1 or Incumbent underwater)
CA13(R)CA27(R)CO08(D)MI07(D)NC01(D)NM02(D)
NY17(R)NY04(R)OR05(R)WA03(D)MI08(D)OH13(D)
PA07(D)…WA08(D)…ME02(D)PA08(D)OH09(D)…PA17(D)
NJ07(R)NY19(R)AK01(D)CA22(R)NY22(R)…NE02(R)
CA45(R)…MN02(D)…NV03(D)…NH01(D)…MI03(D)…KS03(D)
VA07(D)…TX15(R)…PA01(R)
13R, 20D Most Vulnerable: 9R, 12D

Competitive R2-R4 and D2-D4
CA47(D)AZ01(R)…OH01(D)…VA02(R)…AZ06(R)CA41(R)
IA03(R)…WI03(R)…CA49(D)…MD06(D)…NV01(D)…NH02(D)
CT05(D)…IL17(D)…IN01(D)…NY18(D)…OR06(D)…TX28(D)
NV04(D)…NY03(D)…OR04(D)…CA03(R)…CA40(R)…IA01(R)
NY01(R)…WI01(R)…MI10(R)…CA45(R)
10R, 18D Most Vulnerable: 3R, 0D

Note: Vulnerability is based on party demographics for the district >+2 underwater or recent redistricting changes making the seat more competitive with a party demographic switch.

Seats that because of redistricting will flip.
NC13(D)…NC14(D)…NC06(D)…AL02(R)…LA06(R)
3 D>>R II 2R>>D

If seat swaps get into the competitive range someone is having a really bad night

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Latest Senate Math: Some Changes.

Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

MT: Sheehy(R) up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Gallego(D) up 3 has not broken 50% in any poll

NOTE: MT and AZ Fall to contested

Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

MI: Slotkin(D) up 5 has not broken 50% in any poll
WI: Baldwin(D) up 4+ has broken 50% in two polls
OH: Brown(D) up 5+ has broken 50% in two polls
FL: Scott(R) up 5+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NV: Rosen(D) up 5+ has broken 50% in one poll

Note: PA moves to competitive

Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

NM: Heinrich(D) up 7 has not broken 50% in any poll
TX: Cruz(R) up 7+ has broken 50% in 2 polls

Note: TX back on Marginal list
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip

GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX

DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Biden wins

Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)

VA: Trump up <1 neither candidate has not broken 50% in any poll
MN: Biden is up 3 pts and has not broken 50% in any poll
WI: Trump up 3+ both have broken 50% in two polls
MI: Trump is up 1+ pt and has broken 50% in one poll
ME: Biden is up by 2 pts and has broken 50% in one poll
NH: Biden is up 3 pts and has broken 50% in two polls

Note: Biden has also broken 50% in polls in MI
Note: Biden has to win all of these states to win, Trump does not have to win any of them

Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)

GA: Trump is up 4 points and has broken 50% in three polls
PA: Trump is up 4+ pts and has broken 50% in two polls
NV: Trump is up 5+ points and has broken 50% in one poll.
AZ: Trump is up 6 points and has broken 50% in three polls
NC: Trump is up 5+ points and has not broken 50% in any poll
CO: Biden is up 6+ pts and has not broken 50% in any poll

Note: If Trump wins the states he is currently leading in this group, he wins.

Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)

NJ: Biden is up 7 pts and has not broken 50% in any poll
NM: Biden is up 7 pts and has not broken 50% in any poll
WA: Biden is by 8 pts and has not broken 50% in any poll
NY: Biden up 7+ pts and has not broken 50% in any poll
FL: Trump is up 6+ pts and has broken 50% in three polls

Note: If either candidate loses any of the states they are currently leading in this group, he will be having a really bad night.

Note: NV and PA move from contested to competitive

Biden Must win MI, WI, PA, and NE2, and hold all the states where he has any lead at all or he loses.

Trump must hold all the states where he has at least a 4 pt lead to win.

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I notice that the recent NPR poll that shows 2% ahead for Biden also shows Trump at 1% ahead if you do the five person race. Makes sense. That gives Democrats who don’t think Biden can handle the Presidency but loath Trump a place to go.

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