7680

Could be. All we can do is hope.

7681

Hydroxychloroquine.

7682

The unfortunate thing is that many if not most people in the US and Italy will likely get it. Flattening the curve isn’t about reducing cases absolutely. Its about stretching the rise

7683

My bad you’re right…they’re not. I thought they were.

So all our data except for the Diamond Princess is biased toward sick people.

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7684

No…that’s the assumption based on a data set biased towards people that actually get sick.

The overall infection rate has been much lower than the assumed r(0) would suggest it should be. Again some of this is because of aggressive intervention.

But how much?

7686

Castor oil

7687

This is a great question Mr. CanadianJudo. I can only imagine there are many at least somewhat confused why the identifying the origin of this virus is of vital importance.

With the Ebola virus it came in for the first time to a small village in Guinea. The initial victim was a 2-year old toddler named Emile Ouamouno. It is he who later became known to the world as “Patient Zero”. The youngster died on December 6, 2013. Within one month’s time the baby’s sister, mother, grandmother also perished from the infectious disease. By early February, 2014 the families nurse and village midwife became deceased. Eight deaths, including two who attended the grandmother’s funeral died between January 26 - March 27, 2014.

On March 10th, hospitals in Gueckedou and Macenta alerted the Ministry of Health of Guinea and Doctors without Boarders in Guinea about clusters of a mysterious disease. An epidemic of Ebola was declared on March 23rd. That was the same day the Guinean government notified the World Health Organization. All this can be verified in an article of livescience.com written by Bahar Glolipour on October 30, 2014.

Suffice to say that China wasted precious time in only reporting coronavirus to the World Health Organization on December 31, 2019. Even then, they did NOT request or accept assistance from the United States or other countries.

7688

Conan brought it up some time ago, but the cases on the Grand Princess were mostly staff. 45 were tested, 21 positive, 19 were staff. This would suggest that staff members had shared accommodations or through day to day work, were in constant contact.

The nursing homes, as we know, are Petri dishes for this type of thing. Add to that the risk level of patients there. When people start getting sick left and right in these facilities, it becomes more noticeable due to the concentration.

I do hope the transmissibility is a lot less than they figured, and coupled with our two week shutdown, this gives us more time to trial drugs like hydroxychloroquine to mitigate the virus’ impact.

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7689

You think that four million dead people and millions more sick wouldn’t have a huge economic effect?

7690

So far 15% require hospitalization. That seems consistent across countries.

Only 1-6% die.

So they correlate but its the hospitalization itself that’s causing the strain.

7691

Looks like it was around Wuhan since November for sure, possibly October. China supressed information like that communist nation is noted for. If we ever get information on patient zero, maybe we will know.

I doubt that China will ever share the complete story on Wuhan. At this point it is not a priority because we are battling a vicious virus pandemic. We have to get the treatment and immunizations developed as soon as possible.

I hope we can run the china panda huggers out of Washington DC, academia, and businesses.

7692

@GWH. Another right on post, brother. @conan did a good job also.

I hope we all make it out of this pandemic.

7693

We are ramping up production.

7694

do you need a study to know that restricting travel into your country of persons from virus hot spots where the likelihood of infection is high will slow the spread of that virus into your country by those who are more likely infected also?

7695

But we aren’t going to test non-sick people.

We should.

And it burns me up when I hear the richest country in the world is having issues manufacturing a sterile piece of cotton on a stick.

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7696

Come on. At least the best minds in the world are working on it. There are some promising treatments in the works. And immunizations are being worked on 24/7. Hope that we hit the right combination.

Did you see two more cruise ships, floating Petri dishes if you will, are docking in Hawaii, but no one can leave.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/hawaii/articles/2020-03-18/2-cruise-ships-turned-away-by-other-ports-head-to-honolulu

7697

Once your country is already breached and you develop areas of sustained community spread, additional travel restrictions actually don’t do as much to slow the spread as you think it does.

This is because people coming in are always going to be swamped out by people already here.

7698

Being rich doesn’t work miracles. And it’s not manufacturing “a” piece of cotton on a stick, it’s manufacturing additional multiple millions of them, sorry that is going to take a little time no matter how much money you throw at it it can’t be done instantaneously.

7699

You’re getting ahead of yourself again. Right now we aren’t testing non-sick people. That could change.

And as we have determined, neither is Korea.

We need to test the sick and high risk first.

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7700

Rushing to mass market with an inferior product that could result in an unacceptable range of false negatives would only make matters worse. These swabs are not designed to clean ear wax…

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