Cook Political Report moves Arizona to 'lean Democrat' in Biden-Trump race (also current Sabato and consensus maps)

gooddad409 · 2020-09-17T23:11:30.248Z

Safiel:

gooddad409:

DougBH:

Been there done that. Not this year, thank you. Waiting till the election.

“Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate – women, millennials, independents and Latinos – make him the initial November underdog.”

https://www.politicspa.com/cook-moves-pa-to-leans-democratic/75226/

https://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

Yeah Sabato was totally convinced of a Hillary victory as well. I suppose it tickles the ears wanting to hear it but like you i will wait till election night.

On the basis of faulty polling methology that has now been corrected.

Oh yes of course it has!

once-ler · 2020-09-18T11:52:49.208Z

Safiel:

And finally my own current status map, which is based on the consensus map and polling in the given tossup States.

I like your map better.

DMK · 2020-09-18T12:00:59.592Z

GrandWazoo:

I think that we are going to hear a lot about Florida in the next few weeks. I am considering that there are a whole bunch of seniors who always vote and who are plenty pissed off at Trump on his mishandling of the virus crisis. And if Biden should take Florida I think that it will be lights out for Trump. And since the voting system in Florida seems to be really good at counting mail-in votes, I think that we will get a result the evening of election day. Film at eleven.

Our Governor did a great job of handling the crisis.

Florida has been turning blue due to the influx of democrats moving here over the years.

Newsweek – 23 Jul 20

Will the blue invasion of red state America finally pay off in 2020?

Why population shifts from Blue States from Red States, long in the making, may change politics for decades to come

JayJay · 2020-09-18T12:10:40.933Z

DougBH:

No, they didn’t say he had no way to win in 2016. Nor are they saying he has no way to win now.
What now and then have in common is the belief that the Democratic candidate was way ahead. They were wrong then, at least in light of the final result. That doesn’t mean they are wrong now. Back then, their view was so consistent among media I started watching the night of the election believing it was just an issue of how bad Trump lost.
All I am saying is that this time, I think I’ll hold my concerns until after the election.

There is no belief Biden is “way ahead”.

PAmoderate37 · 2020-09-18T12:11:57.951Z

JayJay:

There is no belief Biden is “way ahead”.

I hope not. If you want Trump gone you need to act like your behind for the next 6 plus weeks.

NebraskaFootball · 2020-09-18T12:42:52.602Z

DMK:

Our Governor did a great job of handling the crisis.

Coronavirus Thread Political II Politics

Florida’s Covid-19 death toll now stands at 13,086, with a population of 21,480,000. That’s more deaths than both of these countries… Germany (9,376 with a population of 83,783,942) Canada (9,248 with a population of 37,590,000) That is pretty stark when you consider all of the high praise that was showered on DeSantis at the beginning of this pandemic, and with him being so slow to react.

I disagree. And the 13,000+ dead people there probably disagree as well.

DMK · 2020-09-18T12:47:31.314Z

NebraskaFootball:

I disagree. And the 13,000+ dead people there probably disagree as well.

Feel free to disagree.

The bottom line is Florida is not turning blue because of Trump’s response to COVID but due to the influx of democrats from other states.

NebraskaFootball · 2020-09-18T12:49:50.365Z

DMK:

NebraskaFootball:

I disagree. And the 13,000+ dead people there probably disagree as well.

Feel free to disagree.

The bottom line is Florida is not turning blue because of Trump’s response to COVID but due to the influx of democrats from other states.

I also disagree Florida is turning blue. Trump will carry Florida. It will always be a close state that leans right.

WorldWatcher · 2020-09-18T12:51:42.516Z

NebraskaFootball:

DMK:

NebraskaFootball:

I disagree. And the 13,000+ dead people there probably disagree as well.

Feel free to disagree.

The bottom line is Florida is not turning blue because of Trump’s response to COVID but due to the influx of democrats from other states.

I also disagree Florida is turning blue. Trump will carry Florida. It will always be a close state that leans right.

I hope Trump has to pull his hair out waiting for all the mail in ballots to be counted in Florida instead of having the talking head projections from TV on Election Night and being able to declare “victory”.
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.WW, PSHS

DMK · 2020-09-18T12:53:59.134Z

Mail in here is an absentee ballot.

It has to be requested and you have to verify your identity to receive it.

WorldWatcher · 2020-09-18T12:55:29.344Z

DMK:

Mail in here is an absentee ballot.

It has to be requested and you have to verify your identity to receive it.

That’s nice.
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.WW, PSHS

toreyj01 · 2020-09-18T13:03:32.173Z

NebraskaFootball:

DMK:

Our Governor did a great job of handling the crisis.

Coronavirus Thread Political II - #8737 by NebraskaFootball

I disagree. And the 13,000+ dead people there probably disagree as well.

Interesting fact, had we followed the German response our death toll right now would be around 60k. So, Trump isn’t responsible for 200k deaths, just 140k.

Granted, had we followed the German response, since we have better resources, it might have actually been less than 60k, but I don’t want to be alarmist.

toreyj01 · 2020-09-18T13:06:01.860Z

DMK:

NebraskaFootball:

I disagree. And the 13,000+ dead people there probably disagree as well.

Feel free to disagree.

The bottom line is Florida is not turning blue because of Trump’s response to COVID but due to the influx of democrats from other states.

Those most affected by this in Florida are the Seniors, and there is a large contingent of Seniors in Florida. Trump’s advantage in polling with Florida Seniors over HRC has evaporated with Biden.

Don’t underestimate that, this is a major shift in polling.

toreyj01 · 2020-09-18T13:06:53.111Z

DMK:

Mail in here is an absentee ballot.

It has to be requested and you have to verify your identity to receive it.

Same in Michigan. But Trump is all upset about Michigan for some reason.

NebraskaFootball · 2020-09-18T13:12:55.261Z

toreyj01:

NebraskaFootball:

DMK:

Our Governor did a great job of handling the crisis.

Coronavirus Thread Political II - #8737 by NebraskaFootball

I disagree. And the 13,000+ dead people there probably disagree as well.

Interesting fact, had we followed the German response our death toll right now would be around 60k. So, Trump isn’t responsible for 200k deaths, just 140k.

Granted, had we followed the German response, since we have better resources, it might have actually been less than 60k, but I don’t want to be alarmist.

100% correct!!!

WorldWatcher · 2020-09-18T13:15:28.507Z

toreyj01:

Interesting fact, had we followed the German response our death toll right now would be around 60k. So, Trump isn’t responsible for 200k deaths, just 140k.

Not asking for a bunch of research.

But could you provide some contrast and compare between the Trump response and the German response.
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.WW, PSHS

JayJay · 2020-09-18T13:34:13.229Z

toreyj01:

DMK:

Mail in here is an absentee ballot.

It has to be requested and you have to verify your identity to receive it.

Same in Michigan. But Trump is all upset about Michigan for some reason.

Same in Pennsylvania.

DougBH · 2020-09-18T13:36:41.958Z

No basis for that. You mean if we had been Germany only bigger this would be the death toll. You are not taking into account this is not the German culture, nor the same ethnic makeup. And the ethnic makeup is significant because of the different death rates by ethnic make up that have been recorded.
We do known that UK, Spain and France had higher death rates so far than the US.

JimmyC · 2020-09-18T13:59:24.670Z

France is way below us. In a few days we will pass the UK.

DougBH · 2020-09-18T14:35:58.109Z

France is slightly below us. .4717 v .576
Likewise UK, Italy and Spain are slightly above us.
And Spain is having a second wave right now. NOt unlike here, left wing and right wing politicians are blaming each other.