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I have included four maps, Cook from today, Sabato from last week, the current consensus map from 270toWin and my own current status map.

Not at all surprising that Cook has moved Arizona from tossup to lean Democrat. Polling has been consistent and McSally is dragging Trump down with her.

Additionally, I think the Arpaio clone (Jerry Sheridan) running for Sheriff in Maricopa County will inflict additional damage upon Republicans in Maricopa County. I think Paul Penzone will win that race easily and I think his win may further influence the statewide races in Arizona.

Here is the updated Cook map.

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Here is the current Sabato map.

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And the current consensus (average of all major predictors and polling) map.

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And finally my own current status map, which is based on the consensus map and polling in the given tossup States. (Note, current status, not prediction for November 3rd.)

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I think that we are going to hear a lot about Florida in the next few weeks. I am considering that there are a whole bunch of seniors who always vote and who are plenty pissed off at Trump on his mishandling of the virus crisis. And if Biden should take Florida I think that it will be lights out for Trump. And since the voting system in Florida seems to be really good at counting mail-in votes, I think that we will get a result the evening of election day. Film at eleven.

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Awesome.

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Being in GA, I suspect it will be a close race, but that Trump will end up getting the state. Granted, I am looking at the senate numbers to make that determination - particularly the Perdue / Ossoff race. Perdue currently has about a 4 point lead. In the “jungle primary” special election, 2 republicans (Collins and Loeffler) are currently outpolling the leading democrat Raphael Warnock), but just barely.

I can tell you the Trump crowd around here is highly motivated to vote.

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This is the election in a nutshell, There are definitely more anti-trump votes out there but are enough of them actually committed to vote for Biden? Because all of the Trump leaning voters will get out vote for him.

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In the WCD Polling report by state -I have AZ lead Dem for months. Mark Kelly is very popular, McSally is very unpopular -People are excited for that race- and they will vote the same party on top of the ticket.

What I think is a toss up is PA.

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Yea, I knew Trump was going to win PA in 2016 long before most. Mainly because I knew a lot of Dems who didn’t just cross party lines to vote for him but actually became Republicans to vote for him in the primary. But now all those people are still Republicans and this time I hear a lot of suburb Republicans saying they are voting against Trump. I still think it’s a toss up but I am betting Biden flips it back.

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You may be interested in this, from another thread then, seeing as how you are in PA.

Thoughts?

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Both Biden and Kelly will win Maricopa County. If Biden and Kelly win Maricopa County by at least 3 points, they will win Arizona.

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Trump has no path to victory without Florida.

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Tell it to the boss.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article245760810.html

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From the article.

“Without Florida’s 29 electoral college votes, Trump would be completely reliant on a trio of Upper-Midwest battleground states he narrowly won in 2016 — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — and would need the electoral votes of at least one additional battleground state he previously lost, such as New Hampshire or Minnesota, in order to win a second term.

In all five of those states Trump is in worse shape than he is in Florida, where most public polling is within the margin of error. He trails Biden by four or more points in each of them, according to Real Clear Politics polling averages.”

Having to win a ton of other states that he is behind in to offset losing Florida shows that there is no path for him to win without Florida.

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Been there done that. Not this year, thank you. Waiting till the election.

“Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate – women, millennials, independents and Latinos – make him the initial November underdog.”

https://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

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Underdog doesn’t mean “has no way to win”

I am an underdog to the casino every time I play blackjack. If I happen to win more than I lose… it doesn’t make my underdog status less relevant. It means I bet the odds.

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No, they didn’t say he had no way to win in 2016. Nor are they saying he has no way to win now.
What now and then have in common is the belief that the Democratic candidate was way ahead. They were wrong then, at least in light of the final result. That doesn’t mean they are wrong now. Back then, their view was so consistent among media I started watching the night of the election believing it was just an issue of how bad Trump lost.
All I am saying is that this time, I think I’ll hold my concerns until after the election.

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RCP average has Biden +4.3.
Back in the day Biden had the nickname of Pennsylvania’s third Senator.
I think he will take it.

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If Trump loses Florida or Ohio he is finished right then.

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With Arizona going from light red 4 years ago to light blue now, Trump has to win Florida if he wants to win this election.

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Yeah Sabato was totally convinced of a Hillary victory as well. I suppose it tickles the ears wanting to hear it but like you i will wait till election night. :+1:t2:

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On the basis of faulty polling methology that has now been corrected.