Yeah, it’s worse than I thought. Hunter sells his little pictures to unknown sources…that’s capitalism, DOJ wants to harass parents because they have opinions…prolly death threats, abandons equipment in Afghanistan…Trump would have done it…etc etc etc. it’s embarrassing, or should be.
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If I were Japan, i would be working nonstop on a nuclear stockpile and missile defenses. They can surely see the day when our reinvented US says … go to war with China over Japan? Not me.
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All you people here…outline how you think a war with China over Taiwan would play out.
Put on your Joint Chiefs hats and spell it out.
Or spell out a good deterrence strategy to keep China’s hands off Taiwan so the war scenario doesn’t have to play out.
Either one.
Go.
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The Sinophiles/CCP-philes are beginning to swarm.
China is already at war with the US and the world. Deliberately spreading a deadly engineered virus to weaken your competitors’ economies is not just “doing business”.
First of all, I think any war would be fought in 2 theaters: cyber, and actual physical warfare.
Who knows how the cyber war would play out, but we would experience massive disruptions in our communications, business, and infrastructure.
As far as the physical war, there would be 2 stages: naval war and ground combat. I worry about the naval piece, because our entire strategy is scaffolded on multi billion-dollar carrier groups. These weapons systems are multi generational, but they have never been tested in actual air/sea engagements. My concern is that China would swarm our billion dollar fleet with thousands of million-dollar hypersonic cruise missiles and sink it.
I assume that the ground war would be limited to Taiwan, and I see no reason to think we would be at any disadvantage there. Presumably we would either recapture or reinforce Taiwan as required, and be able to hold it. Our attacks on the mainland would be limited to airstrip on air fields, missile launchers, etc.
I wouldn’t anticipate a nuclear exchange unless one side got absolutely crushed. For that reason, I suspect the adversaries would be restrained, and stick to limited objectives while pursuing a cease fire.
Even without the nuclear exchange, the war would be ruinous for both countries, so I would not actually anticipate America fighting for Taiwan.
This did not answer my question.
[quote=“JayJay, post:47, topic:240390, full:true”]
Trumpian “peace through strength.”
Not Xidenese “full-scale diplomacy.”
This is why I never believed y’all were really isolationists desire all the smack you talked.
Talked a big game on Afghanistan til it happened, then you broke out your real Dick Cheney beliefs.
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You mean you? You mean what you claimed to want for the last five years?
Just FYI, Japan could have nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks. Really they do now, and the delivery systems, they’re just disassembled because no one trusts Japan or Germany with nuclear weapons.
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You made that up. What’s your point in doing things like that?
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Unfortunately I don’t think deterrence works with the Chinese anymore since they know we would not initiate a nuclear conflict; China has a minimum deterrence policy with their 400 so warheads so they would retaliate against Americans cities. Countervalue is the way to go when you run such a small arsenal.
Our only option would be a conventional conflict. We have the upper hand overall, but the PLAN isn’t a pushover. They run a crap ton of late 80s Soviet anti ship cruise missiles plus some very modern indigenous designs with active maneuverability and sea skimming capabilities. Our anti ship missile defense is great, best in the World. But if it’s an overwhelming barrage there’s no guarantee that some wouldn’t get through. And it only takes one or two to sink a Nimitz class.
The key is somehow keeping the Chinese off of the island. Once the PLAN Marine corps and PLAGF are established it would be difficult to dislodge them. Especially if we are unable to establish air supremacy.
With all that said, it’s a decision we need to make now. If we are going to assist them then it needs to be spelled out for the Chinese to hear. We do still have superior hard power and it would force the CPC to consider their options more thoroughly. If not then we need to quietly inform the ROC (Taiwan) government and assist with their preparations before we back out.
I do.
I understand why their neighbors don’t, though.
I believe real threat, that if you physically invade Taiwan, you will face military consequences. It needs to be a real threat, and only when China believes it is a real threat, only then will they back off. Taiwan already saw the Hong Kong example, Hong Kong was supposed to be independent til about 30 years later. There will be bloodshed spilled, Taiwanese will not accept being taken over by China like Hong Kong. That is already a catastophe, and to imagine as though China will not take over that whole area, and dramatically weaken us. Taiwan would inflict massive casualties on the Chinese even if they get taken over, so saying we will not defend them invites mass casualties. China would inflict massive casualties on the Taiwanese as well. China would get free reign over the South China sea and would dramatically reduce our power throughout the whole area. It weakens and makes vulnerable Japan, Philippines. Doing no backing up of Taiwan invites catastrophe right now, and makes China the preeminent world power with the US incredibly weakened. Not backing Taiwan leads to short term catastrophe with death right now, and only delays future full out war with them. Biden weakness is inviting this. Japan next. Are we so worried about avoiding war that we abandon Japan as well? That is next. Afghanistan is a much different story from Taiwan.
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Some thoughts:
1-We don’t have a defense treaty with Taiwan. We are providing them assistance due to ideological reasons, not diplomatic necessity.
2- Generally speaking, I do support helping free people remain free, but this is a very volatile situation. It is also a proxy, cold war type of confrontation.
3- It is not in our geopolitical interest to back Taiwan, aside from ideological reasons. And ideological reasons are very often a terrible reason to go to war.
4- This is a great game conflict, and Taiwan is clearly in the Chinese sphere of influence. I believe we would do better to provide the defensive assistance to Taiwan, while shoring up our allies: specifically South Korea and Japan.
I cannot stress this enough: there is very little American geopolitical interest in the ownership of Taiwan. Simply championing Taiwan in order to stick a thumb in the eye of China is shortsighted, and extremely dangerous.
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These are just slogan words.
Try again.
With you know…words that outline an actual…you know…strategy? With…you know…actual tactics?
I don’t disagree.
It’s a rock and a hard place situation for us.
I hate the PRC and I would love to see them lose. But if we got involved it would be so fraught with the chances for devastating consequences that it probably isn’t worth it.
That’s not including the Russians possibly getting involved. And then things go south real quick for everyone.
But…buh…the TPP!
I hate to disagree, but it really isn’t…when viewed through the cold lense of realpolitik
