China is going to start WW3 in the Philippines

Impenitent · 2024-06-19T02:42:03.420Z

China attacks on Philippine boats are to provoke US, prep for Taiwan war,...

China’s harassment of the relatively weaker Philippines is seen by some commentators as “practice" for war with the U.S., and the eventual attack on Taiwan.

Russia in Cuban waters, China provoking our navy in the Philippines…

the election may come down to wanting to waste lives and money “retreating” under the command of Biden (remember Afghanistan) or fighting and winning (if winning will even be possible) under Trump…

the debates will be interesting (and revealing)

Axxowiz · 2024-06-19T02:54:22.987Z

The future of the world’s economy runs through Asia not Europe. Even pacifists like john mearsheimer states China is a peer competitor to the U.S. and America would use force to try and keep China from running the world economy.

His words not mine. That’s of course if we don’t go broke in Ukraine.

e7alr · 2024-06-19T04:35:56.221Z

China is going to get in a shooting war with the Philippines over a rusted out LST grounded on a reef. And we will get pulled into it just like mutual defense treaties pulled all of Europe into WW1.

bigtwnvin · 2024-06-19T12:07:41.450Z

Axxowiz:

His words not mine. That’s of course if we don’t go broke in Ukraine

We’re already broke. A corporation or any business would have filed for bankruptcy long ago.

bipartisanpolicy.org

Deficit Tracker | Bipartisan Policy Center

Even as the U.S. economy expands, the federal government continues to run large and growing budget deficits that will soon exceed $1 trillion per…

Every dime sent out of the country of the taxpayers money is freshly minted paper.
America’s economic future is a train about to run over a Cliff.
If the ChiComs want to annex Taiwan or attack the US Navy near the Philippines. What, especially Blockhead Joey, do you think the response will be?
Send Blinken to speak French somewhere?
Trot out Kirby to spew some “administration’s position is clear BS”
Have binder lady regurgitate a bunch of propaganda hopes, lies and BS?
While the ChiComs will attack US Navy vessels and personnel, Lloyd Austin will remind commanders of their DEI responsibilities.
What a farce.

johnrandolph · 2024-06-19T12:56:46.207Z

The Flips ran an old LST aground on a sand spit that the Chinese claim. The Chinese have allowed the resupply of those on the rotting hulk by limited means and the Flips keep trying to find new ways to provocatively conduct resupply.

Why the hell should some kid from Texas (or any of the lesser states) be put in the middle of such nonsense?

SixFoot · 2024-06-19T21:23:52.610Z

e7alr:

China is going to get in a shooting war with the Philippines over a rusted out LST grounded on a reef. And we will get pulled into it just like mutual defense treaties pulled all of Europe into WW1.

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DougBH · 2024-06-19T21:28:18.804Z

johnrandolph:

The Flips ran an old LST aground on a sand spit that the Chinese claim. The Chinese have allowed the resupply of those on the rotting hulk by limited means and the Flips keep trying to find new ways to provocatively conduct resupply.

Why the hell should some kid from Texas (or any of the lesser states) be put in the middle of such nonsense?

Best reason for a war since Jenkins lost his ear.

TheRedComet · 2024-06-19T21:43:45.204Z

That’s a classic. Or those ■■■■■■■ Balkans who started a war over a stray dog.

TheRedComet · 2024-06-19T22:08:51.550Z

Because this is America. We’ve never turned away from an opportunity to send our young people to premature deaths.

margaretms2 · 2024-06-19T22:15:58.463Z

China is not going to start WW3 in the Philippines.

TheRedComet · 2024-06-19T22:46:59.415Z

Not on purpose anyway.

They can certainly stupidly walk blindly into that. That’s kind of how we ended up with World War I. Everyone stupidly walked into it.

margaretms2 · 2024-06-20T00:40:28.885Z

TheRedComet:

Not on purpose anyway.

They can certainly stupidly walk blindly into that. That’s kind of how we ended up with World War I. Everyone stupidly walked into it.

Well, there’s always that—yeah.

But I’m really skeptical of China committing to a world-historical war any time soon. I can’t imagine they’re looking at Russia in Ukraine with much envy. Taiwan would be more difficult and risky, especially for a country that hasn’t fought an offensive war in 40+ years and a major war in 70+ years.

The more I read about the necessary scale of such an operation (the Chinese have famously studied D-Day, but this would be even bigger), the difficulty of Taiwan’s topography, the prospect of subduing and ruling a population of 23 million people largely concentrated in cities (i.e., endless urban warfare), etc., the less likely it seems to me. And that’s before we even get to US support.

Besides, China’s patient: they have decades to find more rational ways of ingesting Taiwan without preemptively blowing up the world. But who knows? It’s armchair stuff.

margaretms2 · 2024-06-20T00:46:07.238Z

Re: walking into wars

Also, the Onion did a book in 2000 called Our Dumb Century. It did a front page for every year. Its WWI map is as clear as any real explanation I’ve seen. The whole thing brilliant.

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TheRedComet · 2024-06-20T02:21:07.299Z

It was pretty much a case of everyone not being sure who to declare war on because the alliance system was so complicated that the foreign ministers barely understood it themselves and everyone was so economically tied together before 1914 that it made everything weird. Britain was importing the majorly of its glassware from Germany before ■■■■ hit the fan as just one example. And what’s kind of ironic is the majority of scopes Britain stuck on their rifles to counter snipe German snipers were German in origin. France got a ton of its steel from Germany before the war, and Germany was importing a ■■■■ ton of French alcohol products. People were genuinely surprised when they all started killing each other because of economically interdependent they all were.

TheRedComet · 2024-06-20T02:24:13.763Z

An invasion of Taiwan would dwarf even the plans for Operation Downfall that the US would have implemented before the Atomic bombs and the Soviet declaration of war made it moot.

Plus defending beach heads is actually easier today then it was then thanks to short range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Invading Taiwan would be a mess for China and they know it. They’re waiting for the exact right time to take that step and I’m sure the CCP would prefer for the KMT to take back full power there and hopefully adopt a two systems, one nation plan like they had with Hong Kong and Macau.

e7alr · 2024-06-20T07:39:30.643Z

China is going to continue to use force to prevent the resupply runs by the Philippines. The Philippines will continue to make resupply attempts and at some point the Philippine forces will resort to superior force against Chinese personnel trying to interdict them. The Philippines will do this because they don’t want to lose face. Then China will use greater force in retaliation, because they won’t want to lose face. That is how this is going to play out.

gooddad409 · 2024-06-20T22:57:20.491Z

Those countries are emboldened by the weak biden in office.

Bill.in.PA · 2024-06-21T10:56:39.089Z

Korea is a more likely site for war.

Putin and Kim just signed a mutual defense treaty that says that an attack on either of them is an attack on both. The language similar to that in article 5 in the NATO treaty.

If Ukraine attacks Russia with US-supplied weapons using US-supplied targeting and US-supplied contractors, US bases could face similar attacks from North Korea.

Most of the debate over Putin and Kim’s comprehensive partnership agreement revolves around Article 4. According to North Korean state media, the article states that if one of the countries gets invaded and is pushed into a state of war, the other must deploy “all means at its disposal without delay” to provide “military and other assistance.”
MSN

NDTV.com

Inside North Korea And Russia's Landmark Defence Deal: Key Points

North Korea's state media on Thursday unveiled the full text of a mutual defence pact signed a day ago by its leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which Kim said would elevate bilateral ties to something akin to an "alliance".

Bill.in.PA · 2024-06-21T11:34:25.536Z

The push for war is coming from Washington, not Beijing. Neocons (wrongly) believe that the US can defeat China if we fight a war now, and they (correctly) believe that time is on the side of China.

The US agreed to the one-China policy back in 1972, but now we are doing everything we can to end that policy and provoke confrontations.

For background here is the official position of the US State Department from the 1972 US-China joint communique:

The U.S. side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. With this prospect in mind, it affirms the ultimate objective of the withdrawal of all U.S. forces and military installations from Taiwan. In the meantime, it will progressively reduce its forces and military installations on Taiwan as the tension in the area diminishes.
Historical Documents - Office of the Historian

mccoyfan · 2024-06-27T17:39:42.476Z

A rusted LST is provocative as the “Gulf of Tonkin”.

Im sure China has the advantage since Gen. Milley will call and warn China before bombing them.