UPDATE at 12:20 EDT
Based on official (but still incomplete results), it appears that Likud and Blue & White are tied, both in vote percentage and seats, both currently at 29.2% and 35 seats.
If this holds up through the finish of the count, Netanyahu, as the incumbent Prime Minister, has the inside track to being the first asked by the Israeli President to form a government and appears to have sufficient support to form a government.
Likud - 35 seats
Shas (Ultra-Orthodox) - 8 seats
United Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox) - 8 seats
United Right (ultra-right, ultra-Zionist) - 5 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Russian nationalist, secularist) - 5 seats (but they don’t play well with the rabbi’s)
Kulanu (centrist, focused more on economic issues) - 4 seats (not a good fit with Likud, would be a potential partner for Blue & White)
The remaining parties are either Arab or left wing and I don’t think Netanyahu has even the slightest interest in a Grand Alliance with Blue & White.
Likud’s 35 plus the Rabbi’s 16 plus the extreme rights 5 and Yisrael Beiteinu’s 5 makes 61. Likud will have to settle the inevitable ****ing contests between the secularists and the Rabbi’s, but it should work.
Again, this all assumes these numbers, currently at 94% of the vote counted, hold up.