I would tend to agree. There are far more than enough moderate Republicans to kill this bill.
But it likely will never get to the floor at all.
It looks like McCarthy is going to back off from bringing this bill directly to the floor, rather committing it to the Ways and Means Committee (which is how it should be done anyway). And most likely, there it will die, never seeing the light of day on the House floor.
Which is just fine and dandy with me.
It would have been dead on arrival in the Senate anyhow. I would rather not see a politically risky vote held on something that has zero chance of being enacted into law.
It’s a symbolic gesture at best. To return the government to its original form would require massive majorities in both houses and the Presidency, all of whom being inclined to achieve that goal. There aren’t enough conservative Republicans in America to accomplish that. If there was, we wouldn’t be facing the situation in which we find ourselves. Conservatism is self-limiting by its nature due to the many things it disappoves of.
Small government conservatives will win in the end, just a matter of whether government gets shrunk because law makers shrunk it or it shrinks due to economic collapse.