348

Glad we could agree.

349

We don’t but you are free to disagree.

350

You just said we did. Don’t be a Warren Giver.

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354

I haven’t bought it yet still six days of isolation left so I have some time.

355

Ok, that ain’t it. That thing is ■■■■■■■ ugly. Don’t buy an ugly gun.

There are some questions that have to be answered before a recommendation can be made.

  1. Do you have children under 25 in the house? If so, how do you plan to store it?
  2. What’s the mission?
  3. What type of firearm are you familiar with already?
  4. What’s the longest shot in your house?
  5. What are your exterior walls made of?
  6. Who else has the potential to need to use it?
  7. Does any user have any type of physical disability?
  8. What are the other user’s capabilities?
  9. What other measures do you have?
  10. When and where do you plan to get professional instruction?

Just off the top of my head.

Gun Shop Guy ask you any of that?

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356

At some point, it isn’t worth arguing. If you feel someone with a hunch based on no data is materially the same as someone who has historical data of an event are the same…well I just don’t see the point of arguing that.

357

How many gun battles to you think you will engage in? Planning on fighting off the mutant Army?

358

Newton smiles and Descartes nods his head.

359

Allow me to demonstrate the fallacy of hunches versus data. I show you a six-sided die. One would have a hunch that getting a six would be 16.67% on each roll.

But when I roll the die, we find after 1000 rolls that I got 856 sixes.

I then reveal that the die is weighted disproportionately through its volume.

So which is the hunch of the same value as the data for predicting future outcomes with that die?

360

Expanding the die example to crime. The media is a business that has learned that stories of strife sells and reporting violent crime is a big part of that. Most people who watch the news regularly vastly overestimate what the crime rates are when asked.

Although the media may report crime rates have been dropping, it doesn’t have the same effect as the relentless reporting of violent events across the US.

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I’ve owned Kel-Tec guns. Specificlly, the P32, PF-9 and the Sub2000 in 40 cal.

Kel-Tec’s are “working” guns. Thy’re not pretty and the fit and finish is not as good as some much more expensive firearms but they are a good value for the price and reliable,

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362

You added the cheating variable. If you cheat, there is a 99.9% chance you get shot and now you can use your spreadsheet to try to stop the bleeding.

That’s a hunch.

So which is the hunch of the same value as the data for predicting future outcomes with that die?

There won’t be any future outcomes with that die.

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363

How many you willing to lose?

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364

I will either have won or lost long before I send 100 rounds down range. But to your point. 100 rounds would probably be enough. 500 would be better.

365

499 to practice. One to win.

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366

Oh and after

367

:+1:…

368

Nope I never got great questions like that which are excellent.

  1. Do you have children under 25 in the house? If so, how do you plan to store it?
  • Not yet but there is a possibility my fiancé is pregnant. Found a receipt here for 5 pregnancy tests so I am not really sure how to feel about that and to scared to ask her.
  1. What’s the mission?
  • I want to be able to protect my house from burglars if someone breaks in. I already have an alarm system as well as the front door motion camera but if they kicked in the door I want to have a chance.
  1. What type of firearm are you familiar with already?
  • Embarrassingly little experience, shot a few times a long rifle, single shot and semi automatic shotgun, and various hand guns a long long time ago with my uncle. He would let me shoot my father wouldn’t have a gun in the house, other than that one of my friends who is a gun enthusiast taught me how to load, unload, put the bullets in the clip, and check if there is a bullet in the chamber on a a semi automatic pistol.
  1. What’s the longest shot in your house?
  • 50 feet.
  1. What are your exterior walls made of?
  • It’s half brick and half wood. Most houses in the area are wood this one is half and half.
  1. Who else has the potential to need to use it?
  • My fiancé but that’s a scary thought as well she has pepper spray and she has used it twice (not on me).
  1. Does any user have any type of physical disability?
  • No physical disabilities
  1. What are the other user’s capabilities?
  • I am a fairly fit 37 year old. No disabilities work out twice a week, going to increase that after this mess and I know a bit about self defense (boxed in high school and some in college) but I haven’t boxed other than in the gym on a bag since 2005. Might not have answered that question as you intended?
  1. What other measures do you have?
  • I have extra protection on all my doors to make it supposedly three times harder to kick in. I had these installed a few years ago when I renovated the house. I have an alarm system and 4 motion cameras outside my house. I have bear spray close to the bed it sounds crazy (probably is) but it shoots real far and sprays like a shot gun to cover more area.
  1. When and where do you plan to get professional instruction?
  • 5 minutes down the street they are surprisingly still open the indoor shooting range. They offer group courses or a private two week course 45 minutes a day but they are not sure when they will be doing classes again because of the virus.
369

In poker, it’s a very, very bad idea to weigh hunches equally with fact and data based analysis.

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370

Better work that out first. A gun can stress a relationship

Alarms are good. Got a dog? You need time to wake up and get the gun.

No reason to be embarrassed, you’ve got more than a lot if they told the truth. You should get instruction before you buy. You’ll change your mind 10 times and that ■■■■ gets expensive.

Going to take a while with a pistol

Brick on the bottom. Wood probably won’t stop hot, got to keep them in the house.

Well that it wasn’t on you is good and we know she’ll pull some kind of trigger. Why is it scary? She’ll out shoot you if you can get her through the first mag. Take her to school with you. The family that shoots together cleans the guns together.

Her. You’re the shooter, she’s other. You answered it.

Good. All good. Keep a phone by the bed and dial 911 first. Work together as a team.

I highly suggest the two of you go together before you buy. Shoot a few different ones, then decide. Be prepared to buy two. If your instructor is any good, he’ll help you. Buy knowledge, not “stuff”.

This tool is lethal and unforgiving. One mistake can be horrible. We have a responsibility to not let that happen. There is no margin for error. To do our homework.

I’ve worked with this guy, he’s as good as they come. Fast as greased lightenin’. This is a great book to get you started on your mission. I get no benefit from recommending him. He’s also got some videos, but start with that book.

Get you a blue gun and play with it around the house.

But most of all, get PROFESSIONAL instruction! If those guys down the road seem sloppy or full of ■■■■■ they are. You’ll know, go somewhere else.

I know you don’t want to hear this, but you aren’t ready yet, you’ve got homework to do.

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