Arizona & Florida primaries (8/28/2018)

Safiel · 2018-08-27T20:56:50.744Z

Chris:

The AZ Senate race here is very likely going to be between Dem Kyrsten Sinema and GOP Martha McSally. Martha McSally is way ahead in the polls over Kelli Ward and Arpaio. The hard right-wing individuals are going for Ward and Arpaio while the moderate conservatives are going for McSally.

Arpaio’s entering the race I think turned out to be very fortunate for Republicans, as it split the hard right vote between him and Ward, making it easier for McSally to win.

BlueHeron · 2018-08-27T21:04:02.928Z

An interesting race, here in FL, is between Vern Buchanan (R) and the presumed (D) nominee, David Shapiro. (FL16) Buchanan is running 10 points ahead of Shapiro, but the ads running on TV are brutal, they’re hitting Buchanan hard. I believe the district went from likely R to lean R.
I honestly think Buchanan is in trouble.

Safiel · 2018-08-27T21:11:15.507Z

BlueHeron:

An interesting race, here in FL, is between Vern Buchanan (R) and the presumed (D) nominee, David Shapiro. (FL16) Buchanan is running 10 points ahead of Shapiro, but the ads running on TV are brutal, they’re hitting Buchanan hard. I believe the district went from likely R to lean R.
I honestly think Buchanan is in trouble.

I personally think it would take a very mighty Democratic wave in November to take that district. Not out of the question, but I think highly unlikely.

Chris · 2018-08-28T19:52:13.802Z

I already voted here. Even though I am no longer registered as Republican, I did vote with the Republican ballot. Independents in AZ here get to choose if they want to vote with the GOP ballot or the Democratic ballot. And I voted with the GOP ballot.

Joanne · 2018-08-28T19:53:44.697Z

Seems clear McSally will win big tonight if the polls are correct. And I hope that’s the last we hear from Kelli Ward and Sheriff Joe.

Apocalypto · 2018-08-28T19:56:06.991Z

That Kelli Ward is a freaking nutjob.

DougBH · 2018-08-28T20:01:30.921Z

In what way is Ward more right wing than McSally?

Joanne · 2018-08-28T20:05:19.770Z

I agree, and her comments about McCain were beyond disgusting. Anyway, last I saw McSally had about a 20 point lead, so Kelli will hopefully fade into obscurity after tonight. And she can take Joe with her.

Safiel · 2018-08-28T20:49:52.433Z

DougBH:

In what way is Ward more right wing than McSally?

I actually did not say that.

What I said is that Ward and Arpaio are attracting and splitting the hard right vote, while McSally is attracting a more moderate and establishment set of voters.

And Wards endorsers are clearly more conservative than McSally’s endorsers.

Ward has been endorsed (among others) by Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, Rand Paul, Steve Bannon and such.

McSally has been endorsed (among others) by Mitch McConnell, John Kyl, Newt Gingrich, Jan Brewer and such.

You can generally judge the candidates ideology by those that are endorsing them.

Joanne · 2018-08-29T02:40:57.899Z

Interesting turn of events. Apparently the Dem nominee for Governor in Florida is a Bernie clone, probably too left wing for that state.

Also Rick Scott has been leading Nelson in the polls. Hopefully Nelson will be retiring soon

twitter.com

Chuck Todd

@chucktodd

Florida could become state that saves the GOP midterms. Or at least makes them think they can survive. Amazing, both FL and GA could have major party GOV nominees that the OTHER party believes is unelectable. Someone has to win! twitter.com/Redistrict/sta…

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Projection: it's Andrew Gillum (D) vs. Ron DeSantis (R) for #FLGOV in November. Wow, what a turn of events.

12:28 AM - 29 Aug 2018 710 160

Safiel · 2018-08-29T02:42:42.692Z

Just had a magnitude 1 upset in the Florida Democratic Gubernatorial primary.

Candidate	Party	Votes Received
Andrew Gillum	DEM	508,705	34.19%
Gwen Graham	DEM	466,964	31.38%
Jeff Greene	DEM	150,150	10.09%
Chris King	DEM	37,075	2.49%
Philip Levine	DEM	302,347	20.32%
Alex “Lundy” Lundmark	DEM	8,557	0.58%
John Wetherbee	DEM	14,270	0.96%

AP has called this race for Gillum, who could potentially be Florida’s first black Governor. He is currently the Mayor of Tallahassee.

Gwen Graham was expected to win and was leading most of the evening, until returns started pouring in from Broward and Miami-Dade Counties, both having huge black populations.

Current breakdown by county.

County	Andrew Gillum	Gwen Graham	Jeff Greene	Chris King	Philip Levine	Alex “Lundy” Lundmark	John Wetherbee
Alachua	14,314	10,572	2,174	509	2,125	149	264
Baker	372	485	142	47	213	31	62
Bay	2,045	4,445	421	293	669	47	133
Bradford	595	699	240	58	244	13	73
Brevard	14,527	19,047	4,775	1,558	5,953	237	474
Broward	63,793	29,559	20,227	1,633	45,108	590	879
Calhoun	220	634	138	62	98	32	76
Charlotte	1,540	2,812	1,089	372	4,938	60	117
Citrus	1,784	4,600	1,434	352	1,964	80	158
Clay	3,447	2,747	897	195	1,343	51	115
Collier	3,112	4,861	1,753	535	5,662	100	151
Columbia	1,465	1,707	621	175	603	83	144
Desoto	510	507	310	89	611	55	93
Dixie	145	369	165	53	89	42	60
Duval	39,868	18,410	5,529	1,422	11,173	371	639
Escambia	10,573	4,472	1,916	514	4,333	178	265
Flagler	2,276	3,670	1,087	246	1,426	54	84
Franklin	434	1,109	164	81	138	36	51
Gadsden	6,311	2,494	475	123	477	39	78
Gilchrist	162	371	96	38	88	15	43
Glades	117	186	79	24	187	27	36
Gulf	303	562	106	58	77	17	30
Hamilton	509	329	109	42	109	18	33
Hardee	257	448	85	21	152	16	44
Hendry	671	268	175	39	467	28	55
Hernando	2,613	5,357	1,779	478	2,485	88	199
Highlands	1,246	2,098	532	176	1,108	40	63
Hillsborough	37,925	33,386	7,389	2,282	13,527	510	820
Holmes	100	530	140	74	83	20	52
Indian River	2,641	3,598	1,081	314	2,463	70	79
Jackson	1,351	2,189	406	188	312	70	173
Jefferson	1,391	854	147	49	182	21	49
Lafayette	95	274	40	26	51	18	39
Lake	5,643	9,094	2,053	610	3,106	100	245
Lee	7,246	8,876	3,215	1,094	13,453	190	345
Leon	22,092	18,575	1,726	422	4,111	142	271
Levy	754	991	371	106	255	50	80
Liberty	235	741	187	94	108	49	92
Madison	1,272	805	132	61	163	45	78
Manatee	7,495	10,312	2,958	731	4,858	135	215
Marion	7,206	10,115	2,723	811	3,273	168	300
Martin	2,169	3,995	1,381	521	2,819	45	98
Miami-Dade	57,446	24,425	13,693	2,025	48,238	1,107	939
Monroe	1,610	2,528	955	225	2,011	50	92
Nassau	1,306	1,697	460	130	715	29	87
Okaloosa	2,500	1,875	690	181	1,249	54	95
Okeechobee	325	679	191	55	404	27	63
Orange	39,399	29,767	9,321	4,445	13,414	522	835
Osceola	5,472	6,330	3,402	948	4,519	324	442
Palm Beach	34,308	33,906	16,170	1,638	31,071	373	596
Pasco	7,743	13,172	2,982	1,013	5,414	193	311
Pinellas	23,441	38,115	8,228	2,697	15,783	299	665
Polk	13,437	14,253	4,142	1,112	6,842	337	650
Putnam	1,413	1,772	582	200	785	62	184
Santa Rosa	1,932	1,674	695	179	1,599	57	128
Sarasota	8,487	15,525	4,390	1,138	8,682	124	210
Seminole	11,711	12,539	2,653	1,313	4,254	148	224
St. Johns	4,808	6,379	1,518	389	2,456	63	106
St. Lucie	8,003	6,754	2,679	812	6,008	153	264
Sumter	1,516	4,682	1,129	242	1,871	40	98
Suwannee	650	1,003	248	93	288	49	106
Taylor	608	806	143	86	206	51	95
Union	210	325	114	38	119	27	43
Volusia	10,838	18,930	4,891	1,351	5,438	262	520
Wakulla	942	1,626	188	72	327	47	87
Walton	463	1,155	186	103	205	17	42
Washington	383	658	97	62	100	16	39
Total:	509,775	467,728	150,214	37,123	302,602	8,561	14,276

Safiel · 2018-08-29T02:49:12.016Z

Joanne:

Interesting turn of events. Apparently the Dem nominee for Governor in Florida is a Bernie clone, probably too left wing for that state.

Also Rick Scott has been leading Nelson in the polls. Hopefully Nelson will be retiring soon

https://twitter.com/chucktodd/status/1034598661777485825

Republicans actually just caught a big break at the very same moment they were shooting themselves in the foot. Republicans nominated the Trump-bot, rather than Adam Putnam, who was well prepared to be Governor.

But I think Gillum is a weaker candidate then Graham would have been.

Dissident_Aggressor · 2018-08-29T02:56:14.108Z

Safiel:

Republicans actually just caught a big break at the very same moment they were shooting themselves in the foot. Republicans nominated the Trump-bot, rather than Adam Putnam, who was well prepared to be Governor.

But I think Gillum is a weaker candidate then Graham would have been.

Yeah, I was fully prepared to completely write off anybody that mentioned Trump in a positive manner, but given the other option is essentially a socialist, I may have to rethink that.

Safiel · 2018-08-29T03:18:28.022Z

These are VERY early results from Arizona, so don’t read too much into them just yet.

Choice

Votes

Percent

McSally, Martha

137,089

50.88%

Ward, Kelli

77,268

28.68%

Arpaio, Joe

55,067

20.44%

Joanne · 2018-08-29T03:43:22.053Z

Yes, all the analysis I am hearing is saying much the same. Putnam was a more electable candidate, but with Ds going for Gillum deSantis has more of a chance.

Meanwhile Rick Scott could pull an upset in the Senate race. A lot of Floridians don’t even know much about Nelson, despite the fact he’s been their Senator for a long while.

Meanwhile In Arizona, McSally easily won and cleared over 50& of the vote. Hopefully that is the last we hear from Ward and Sheriff Joe, two people who would have been definite losers in November. McSally has a decent chance of holding the seat.

twitter.com

NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt

@NBCNightlyNews

BREAKING: Rep. Martha McSally defeats former Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Kelli Ward in the Arizona Republican Senate primary, NBC News projects. nbcnews.to/2PH7IOJ

3:34 AM - 29 Aug 2018 170 32

Joanne · 2018-08-29T03:44:43.676Z

Yep. a Bernie clone is the D nominee for Governor in Florida, this gives the GOP another break in Florida as well as the Senate seat.

Safiel · 2018-08-29T03:47:54.879Z

With 6% of precincts reporting statewide, nothing from Maricopa County as of yet.

Choice

Votes

Percent

McSally, Martha

196,798

51.37%

Ward, Kelli

109,359

28.55%

Arpaio, Joe

76,919

20.08%

Joanne · 2018-08-29T03:50:07.330Z

McSally has been declared the winner awhile ago. She’s already given her acceptance speech.

Safiel · 2018-08-29T03:50:23.011Z

In fact, the only two counties reporting at this point are Yavapai (Prescott) and Coconino (Flagstaff).

Safiel · 2018-08-29T03:51:36.558Z

Joanne:

McSally has been declared the winner awhile ago. She’s already given her acceptance speech.

I still will be interested in seeing if she clears 50% at the end of the night. It would be a rebuke of Trump if she does.