Arizona & Florida primaries (8/28/2018)

Arizona & Florida are holding their primaries tomorrow.

The Republican Senate primary in Arizona and the Gubernatorial and Cabinet primaries for both parties in Florida are the highest profile contests.

Should make for quite an interesting few hours tomorrow night.

The United States Senate race in Florida will not be a factor tomorrow night. Bill Nelson is unopposed and Rick Scott faces only a non-entity in his primary.

There are a few Congressional primaries to watch in both Arizona & Florida.

The AZ Senate race here is very likely going to be between Dem Kyrsten Sinema and GOP Martha McSally. Martha McSally is way ahead in the polls over Kelli Ward and Arpaio. The hard right-wing individuals are going for Ward and Arpaio while the moderate conservatives are going for McSally.

Arpaio’s entering the race I think turned out to be very fortunate for Republicans, as it split the hard right vote between him and Ward, making it easier for McSally to win.

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An interesting race, here in FL, is between Vern Buchanan (R) and the presumed (D) nominee, David Shapiro. (FL16) Buchanan is running 10 points ahead of Shapiro, but the ads running on TV are brutal, they’re hitting Buchanan hard. I believe the district went from likely R to lean R.
I honestly think Buchanan is in trouble.

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I personally think it would take a very mighty Democratic wave in November to take that district. Not out of the question, but I think highly unlikely.

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I already voted here. Even though I am no longer registered as Republican, I did vote with the Republican ballot. Independents in AZ here get to choose if they want to vote with the GOP ballot or the Democratic ballot. And I voted with the GOP ballot.

Seems clear McSally will win big tonight if the polls are correct. And I hope that’s the last we hear from Kelli Ward and Sheriff Joe.

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That Kelli Ward is a freaking nutjob.

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In what way is Ward more right wing than McSally?

I agree, and her comments about McCain were beyond disgusting. Anyway, last I saw McSally had about a 20 point lead, so Kelli will hopefully fade into obscurity after tonight. And she can take Joe with her.

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I actually did not say that.

What I said is that Ward and Arpaio are attracting and splitting the hard right vote, while McSally is attracting a more moderate and establishment set of voters.

And Wards endorsers are clearly more conservative than McSally’s endorsers.

Ward has been endorsed (among others) by Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, Rand Paul, Steve Bannon and such.

McSally has been endorsed (among others) by Mitch McConnell, John Kyl, Newt Gingrich, Jan Brewer and such.

You can generally judge the candidates ideology by those that are endorsing them.

Interesting turn of events. Apparently the Dem nominee for Governor in Florida is a Bernie clone, probably too left wing for that state.

Also Rick Scott has been leading Nelson in the polls. Hopefully Nelson will be retiring soon

Just had a magnitude 1 upset in the Florida Democratic Gubernatorial primary.

Candidate Party Votes Received
Andrew Gillum DEM 508,705 34.19%
Gwen Graham DEM 466,964 31.38%
Jeff Greene DEM 150,150 10.09%
Chris King DEM 37,075 2.49%
Philip Levine DEM 302,347 20.32%
Alex “Lundy” Lundmark DEM 8,557 0.58%
John Wetherbee DEM 14,270 0.96%

AP has called this race for Gillum, who could potentially be Florida’s first black Governor. He is currently the Mayor of Tallahassee.

Gwen Graham was expected to win and was leading most of the evening, until returns started pouring in from Broward and Miami-Dade Counties, both having huge black populations.

Current breakdown by county.

County Andrew Gillum Gwen Graham Jeff Greene Chris King Philip Levine Alex “Lundy” Lundmark John Wetherbee
Alachua 14,314 10,572 2,174 509 2,125 149 264
Baker 372 485 142 47 213 31 62
Bay 2,045 4,445 421 293 669 47 133
Bradford 595 699 240 58 244 13 73
Brevard 14,527 19,047 4,775 1,558 5,953 237 474
Broward 63,793 29,559 20,227 1,633 45,108 590 879
Calhoun 220 634 138 62 98 32 76
Charlotte 1,540 2,812 1,089 372 4,938 60 117
Citrus 1,784 4,600 1,434 352 1,964 80 158
Clay 3,447 2,747 897 195 1,343 51 115
Collier 3,112 4,861 1,753 535 5,662 100 151
Columbia 1,465 1,707 621 175 603 83 144
Desoto 510 507 310 89 611 55 93
Dixie 145 369 165 53 89 42 60
Duval 39,868 18,410 5,529 1,422 11,173 371 639
Escambia 10,573 4,472 1,916 514 4,333 178 265
Flagler 2,276 3,670 1,087 246 1,426 54 84
Franklin 434 1,109 164 81 138 36 51
Gadsden 6,311 2,494 475 123 477 39 78
Gilchrist 162 371 96 38 88 15 43
Glades 117 186 79 24 187 27 36
Gulf 303 562 106 58 77 17 30
Hamilton 509 329 109 42 109 18 33
Hardee 257 448 85 21 152 16 44
Hendry 671 268 175 39 467 28 55
Hernando 2,613 5,357 1,779 478 2,485 88 199
Highlands 1,246 2,098 532 176 1,108 40 63
Hillsborough 37,925 33,386 7,389 2,282 13,527 510 820
Holmes 100 530 140 74 83 20 52
Indian River 2,641 3,598 1,081 314 2,463 70 79
Jackson 1,351 2,189 406 188 312 70 173
Jefferson 1,391 854 147 49 182 21 49
Lafayette 95 274 40 26 51 18 39
Lake 5,643 9,094 2,053 610 3,106 100 245
Lee 7,246 8,876 3,215 1,094 13,453 190 345
Leon 22,092 18,575 1,726 422 4,111 142 271
Levy 754 991 371 106 255 50 80
Liberty 235 741 187 94 108 49 92
Madison 1,272 805 132 61 163 45 78
Manatee 7,495 10,312 2,958 731 4,858 135 215
Marion 7,206 10,115 2,723 811 3,273 168 300
Martin 2,169 3,995 1,381 521 2,819 45 98
Miami-Dade 57,446 24,425 13,693 2,025 48,238 1,107 939
Monroe 1,610 2,528 955 225 2,011 50 92
Nassau 1,306 1,697 460 130 715 29 87
Okaloosa 2,500 1,875 690 181 1,249 54 95
Okeechobee 325 679 191 55 404 27 63
Orange 39,399 29,767 9,321 4,445 13,414 522 835
Osceola 5,472 6,330 3,402 948 4,519 324 442
Palm Beach 34,308 33,906 16,170 1,638 31,071 373 596
Pasco 7,743 13,172 2,982 1,013 5,414 193 311
Pinellas 23,441 38,115 8,228 2,697 15,783 299 665
Polk 13,437 14,253 4,142 1,112 6,842 337 650
Putnam 1,413 1,772 582 200 785 62 184
Santa Rosa 1,932 1,674 695 179 1,599 57 128
Sarasota 8,487 15,525 4,390 1,138 8,682 124 210
Seminole 11,711 12,539 2,653 1,313 4,254 148 224
St. Johns 4,808 6,379 1,518 389 2,456 63 106
St. Lucie 8,003 6,754 2,679 812 6,008 153 264
Sumter 1,516 4,682 1,129 242 1,871 40 98
Suwannee 650 1,003 248 93 288 49 106
Taylor 608 806 143 86 206 51 95
Union 210 325 114 38 119 27 43
Volusia 10,838 18,930 4,891 1,351 5,438 262 520
Wakulla 942 1,626 188 72 327 47 87
Walton 463 1,155 186 103 205 17 42
Washington 383 658 97 62 100 16 39
Total: 509,775 467,728 150,214 37,123 302,602 8,561 14,276

Republicans actually just caught a big break at the very same moment they were shooting themselves in the foot. Republicans nominated the Trump-bot, rather than Adam Putnam, who was well prepared to be Governor.

But I think Gillum is a weaker candidate then Graham would have been.

Yeah, I was fully prepared to completely write off anybody that mentioned Trump in a positive manner, but given the other option is essentially a socialist, I may have to rethink that.

These are VERY early results from Arizona, so don’t read too much into them just yet.

Choice

Votes

Percent

McSally, Martha

137,089

50.88%

Ward, Kelli

77,268

28.68%

Arpaio, Joe

55,067

20.44%

Yes, all the analysis I am hearing is saying much the same. Putnam was a more electable candidate, but with Ds going for Gillum deSantis has more of a chance.

Meanwhile Rick Scott could pull an upset in the Senate race. A lot of Floridians don’t even know much about Nelson, despite the fact he’s been their Senator for a long while.

Meanwhile In Arizona, McSally easily won and cleared over 50& of the vote. Hopefully that is the last we hear from Ward and Sheriff Joe, two people who would have been definite losers in November. McSally has a decent chance of holding the seat.

Yep. a Bernie clone is the D nominee for Governor in Florida, this gives the GOP another break in Florida as well as the Senate seat.

With 6% of precincts reporting statewide, nothing from Maricopa County as of yet.

Choice

Votes

Percent

McSally, Martha

196,798

51.37%

Ward, Kelli

109,359

28.55%

Arpaio, Joe

76,919

20.08%

McSally has been declared the winner awhile ago. She’s already given her acceptance speech.