Some years back I ran my global Cooling Watch thread as solar cycle 23 sputtered out and solar cycle 24 limped in. Lots of good discussion in that one even among folks who’ve since taken the blue pill. Even then, years ago, it was advanced that solar cycle 24 could end up being quite weak, but this talk of a grand solar minimum that could possibly last centuries goes a bit beyond merely weak.
I love cold weather, bring it on.
Seriously though, I have been following the solar cycles and we are definitely looking forward to a mini ice age at the very least.
I though I would recap some of the points in the presentation video at the link.
The woman in question, Valentina Zharkova, is a physicist studying the sun. She and her colleagues – while working on observed data – hit on the idea of sustained waves oscillating across the sun and as these did or did not interact several things seemed to concurrently happen: such as the appearance of sunspots or the reversal of the sun’s magnetic poles. She describes the sun’s oscillations as very regular, saying it indicates our star is likely in good health.
The first version of this idea, with two waves IIRC, managed to coincide very closely with historical data except for the Maraunder Minimum. But then other physicists provided measurements showing that there were such wave systems in adjacent outer layers of the sun. With a four wave model the projected results did match historical or data from things like tree rings, for both the Maraunder Minimum and things like the Roman Warm Period.
She noted that among well over a hundred different attempts to model solar cycle 24, the one we’re presently in, only two, including hers, predicted that the cycle would be weaker than solar cycle 23.
Essentially, the progress and interaction of these wave systems is being presented as a valid indicator for solar weather much as sun spots are. Only these are more predictable.
Oh, and as mentioned earlier based on her models of the sun, which again are able to match known history (a rarity when compared to geocentered climate models) would seem to indicate that we are on the cusp of another Grand Solar Minimum that will take us well through perihelion where closest coincided with most possible exposure for the northern hemisphere and likewise winter even less … which would otherwise result in warmer summers in the northern hemisphere (and colder winters … so not all good news if you hate hot summers).
Some years ago a Canadian on the old forum humorously demanded who he should sue for the global warming he was promised. If we really are heading into a Grand Minimum we may hear more of that.
