Antibody Testing in one California county reveals ~2-4% infection rate

In a county with about 1,000 known cases, it points to anywhere from 48,000-81,000 people who actually got exposed/infected.

Translated nationwide (let’s use 3%) that would be about 10 million people (600,900 reported cases).

That would translate to an actual case fatality rate of 0.36%…which is still 4x more deadly than the seasonal flu.

This matches up with what they found in the German study.

The test wasn’t exploring whether these people had immunity.


That’s a double edged sword in that it would appear, many are beating this virus on their own…without medical assistance. The flip side is, they are also naively spreading it and those with lower immune systems have a greater of catching it and dying?


I still say I had this thing in December…what if it originated here and not in China…or we had it concurrently in the US and in China?

Yeah…yeah…you’re in charge of this conspiracy. :sunglasses:

The question that needs to be answered is how much virus has shed on these people that are testing…and are they contagious???

I might be patient 0…lol

But seriously. I had a low grade fever, for two days followed by a cough and chest congestion that I could not shake for more than a month. I have felt this all along, especially due to the fact the doctor told me they had seen a lot of people with some virus that was not the flu. By the way…the flu test was negative.

Ok… and?

If you look at the aircraft carrier as a “Control” infection I think 60% of people had the virus but did not show symptoms.

Just like every other respiratory virus in history.

1 Like

Yes. Everyone has been exposed or will be.

as someone who is immunecomprimised this is bad news for little old me.

I think I had it in late January. Fever that wouldn’t go away, heavy congestion that produced shallow breathing, cough that lasted 3 weeks.

I actually recorded my breathing it was so messed up.

Self-lockdown. Get your friends and family to make sure you’re well supplied.

1 Like

Yes it is.

You are knowledgeable enough to take proper precautions.

Sorry Jay…didn’t mean to call you out in other thread. Didn’t see this one thou.

Actual link to this study is here. study

We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer’s data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.

It does make you rethink everything we’ve been told doesn’t it?

I wear a fit bit tracker. My resting heart rate is normally around 60-61 bpm. During the time I was sick…it went as high as 71 for a 24 hour average. I would get up and walk down the hall and I’d bounce up to 90 95 bpm. Was like that for more than a month.

Iceland has tests a large fraction of its population. They have had 9 deaths out of 1727 confirmed cases. That works out to about a .5% death rate.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship end up with 14 deaths out of 712 confirmed cases. That is more like a 2% death rate. All of the deaths were from people over 70.

Clearly people over 70 and people with other risk factors need to isolate themselves. That does not require shutting down the entire economy.

1 Like

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

No…we’ve been suspecting it’s been more widespread for some time.

Only way it could spread so much.

The Flyover Virus?

1 Like