#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson
#3 Notre Dame
I believe that all three of the above schools will take care of business and be 1, 2, 3.
So…
#4 ???
Michigan is losing to Ohio State.
The loss of UCF’s quarterback effectively eliminates them, even if they beat Memphis.
I would say Oklahoma is the leading contender at this point in time to be the 4th team.
So what is your pick for #4?
If Michigan loses, Oklahoma has the best road to the final playoff spot, unless Georgia can upset Alabama in the SEC title game.
And UCF was never going to make it.
Notre Dame is a sham again.
Michigan will get the 4th spot
At this point I’ll be happy if the Sun Devils beat the Wildcats today. 
Georgia…
Alrighty, Notre Dame is 12-0 and in.
My opinions on how it should go, not that it will go this way.
Notre Dame is in because they are done and undefeated.
Winner of Alabama / Georgia gets in. Loser stays home unless a lot of other contenders also lose. If you can’t win your division you shouldn’t be in period barring extreme circumstances.
If Clemson wins next week they are in. If they lose they are out by not winning their division.
If UCF wins next week they are in. I don’t want to hear about lesser division and the SEC is soooo hard. Mid majors have proven in past years they were deserving. For instance when Boise State went undefeated and beat the Adrian Peterson led Oklahoma Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma should have been playing in the title game but lost a game due to a horrific ref call near the end of a game that literally did cost them the game and replay was 100% the wrong call. So if Boise can beat one of the teams that should have been in the championship why not the ones that actually did get to play there. Ditto with UCF. Either all teams get a fair shot or the system is invalid.
Ohio State gets in before Oklahoma if a loss by someone else sets up a spot for one of them. Ohio State has a better signature win coming this weekend against Michigan.
Oklahoma did their part by beating Texas and actually playing some defense along the way as a safety in the 4th quarter was the turning point of the game.
Now I’m going to root for a Georgia beatdown of Alabama, a Pitt win over Clemson, and a UCF blowout. Because some of us just like to see the world burn and I’d love to see the chaos this would bring.
As I write this, Oklahoma has won the Big 12 and the SEC Championship Game is just underway.
If no upsets later today, the final list should be
Georgia’s leading, 21 to 7 at this point.
Hopefully Alabama wins, because if they don’t, they probably WON’T drop Alabama below #4 and due to the pro-SEC bias of the committee, there would be two SEC teams in the playoffs.
The pecking order in College football is:
My view is either expand the playoffs to 8 teams and give 1 loss non power 5 teams a plausible way in or divide Division 1a into two new Divisions, power 5 only and non-power 5 only.
A team like UCF being effectively locked out this year demonstrates the current system is a sham.
My playoff solution is expand to eight.
Each conference champ in the power 5 regardless of record gets in the playoff.
If you are outside the power 5 and either undefeated or ranked in the top 8 in the final poll you get one of the three remaining spots. This would account for UCF last year and maybe this year and teams like TCU or Boise State who in the past were left out despite being undefeated and then beating a top 10 school in their bowl game.
This would leave 2 or perhaps 3, assuming no non power 5 schools get in, to receive at large bids. This year that would mean the loser of Alabama / Georgia would still get in without stiffing a conference champion. It would also give a way for Notre Dame or other future non conference schools to get it.
Polls still matter for seeding.
And its Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma.
Based on yesterday they made the right choice. No one except SEC homers wanted to see an Alabama / Georgia rematch in round one and Oklahoma had a stronger game yesterday than Ohio State.
I personally feel UCF deserves spot #4, they haven’t lost a game since 2016, but I knew that would never happen due to how biased the system is against smaller schools.
Realistically speaking, I think the four teams and the seeding are as good as we were likely to get.
I expect Alabama will handle Oklahoma fairly easily. I think Clemson will be Notre Dame in a fairly close game.
At least UCF gets a high profile bowl game and there will be a classic Big 10 Pac 10 Rose Bowl.
Why is ND a sham?
Without their 1st string quarterback, don’t believe UCF would stand a chance against any other top team. They just squeaked by Memphis (twice).
I just don’t think they are in the same league as Alabama or Clemson or Georgia. I think their schedule and reputation puts them above where they should be. I may be wrong this year, though.
I always go back a few years ago when ND played Bama and ND got embarrassed. A lot of people thought they had a chance.
That was a team that overachieved. They had a mediocre QB and a Mediocre Linebacker that were both touted to be way better than actually were.
This team is much better than that team. I think they can beat Clemson…and anyone can beat Bama if they play perfectly. Georgia’s big mistake was outing the Bama QB out of the game.
I think Clemson and Notre Dame both could plausibly win the National Championship.
Clearly Alabama will destroy Oklahoma. But I think Clemson and Notre Dame will be a close game and I think Alabama can be beat. They are very strong, but no team is invincible.
