538 called 48 out of 50 states correctly in the 2020 presidential race

Now that all the states are called. Time to go back and revisit the 538 election forecast.

Missed on Florida and North Carolina. And Maine second congressional district.

On the bad side of the ledger. They missed on their senate and house projections.

I’d give the an A- on the presidential side

And a d- (depending on the last two seats in the senate race) on the congressional side of things.

An almost complete miss.


  1. Landslide. Blowout. Historic

The closer it got to the election, the more apparent it became that Florida was going to go to Trump. The energy for him became unbelievable here, a fever pitch.