2nd Quarter GDP release 07/30/20 Predictions

So in the past we’ve accidentally started these the morning of the release more than a few times. So let’s allow some time. So in less than two days we get the first estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP. Also an update on 1st quarter and the previous five years. So lots of fun numbers. We’re in uncharted territory here, but I’m guessing -35%. Think most predictions are between -30% and -40%. So I’m taking the coward’s way out. Also, Atlanta has it as -34.3%. Hopefully this is the worst GDP drop that any of us will ever see in our lives. I think Trump’s only play on Thursday is to post something along the lines of “Many economists were predicting -50%. Economy is back!” Or something along those lines. So what are people’s predictions? We’re used to quibbling over a tenth of a percentage point, but when we’re talking a 30%+ drop I’m just going with round numbers. Like I said before. Uncharted territory. But below is a link to the BEA with some helpful information:

https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2020-07-13/annual-update-gdp-statistics-coming-july-30-0

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I’m going -33%.

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Is this like the Price Is Right? Am I looking for over or under, so do I go with -36% or -32%?
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.WW

Non Price Is Right rules. Can even say the same as someone else.

:rofl:

No Price is Right rules here.

I’m thinking the report will be preceded with an alert - Danger Will Robinson!!

Well, I mean we all know it’s going to be god awful. So I think the only real surprises possible is if it’s under -30% or over -40%. It’s not like other quarters where some people were saying 3% growth and it ends up being like 1.5%. Which at the time was a huge difference. And it’s crazy how far away we are from those numbers now. God I miss reliable consistent 2% GDP growth.

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-5%*****

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I will be optimistic -29%

Some on line spending from the first stimulus helps out.

Allan

Seriously? You think it will be that good? It was -5% in the first quarter.

I don’t know for sure. I have a hunch, but I may be wrong.

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:smiley:

It’s going to be a disaster. It’s gonna ■■■■ the market but good. Then the jobs report is gonna come along a week later and since it covers mid-June to mid-July, it’s going to be even worse. That’s when ■■■■ is gonna start to spiral.

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I don’t think it will affect the market too much. They know it’s coming. And the market is so disconnected from the actual economy right now I don’t think it will care.

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i have to agree. look at the April result. highest unemployment claims ever, and yet it had the best April since the 1980s…

I’m going with a decline of 35.7% because America got shot in the face with a .357 and trump keeps shooting America in the foot with same.

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Personally…I’ve never seen anything like the current buying climate. In May, I beat the previous 23 year best of all time. It happened again in June and it happened again last Friday and I’m on my way to the greatest month ever. It’s absolutely incredible. My business was considered essential and left open. I really wonder if “the experts” had left us all alone, whether this would have been the experience for the entire country?

Okay. GDP prediction?

im thing high -20’s
so ill say -29%

its really not the market thats disconnected from reality its 6 stocks.
take out facebook,amazon,apple,microsoft and google and the market is down for the year.

facebook,amazon,apple google and microsoft make up over 20% if the entire index.

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