2026 Budget Estimates

[7426k]

The FY2024 budget year saw the US federal government spend a total of approximately 6.75T dollars. The deficit was 1.8T. Now obviously the FY2025 budget will come in at pretty similar levels since much of it will be over before any new administration cuts from DOGE and others can be applied.

So by FY2026 what do you actually think the total US federal spending will be? Will the right and DOGE meet these claims of cutting a trillion (5.75T) or more? Or will the 2026 budget actually spend more than FY2024? Or somewhere in between?

And what do you guys the deficit will be in 2026? Will it be lower or higher than 1.8T?

[SixFoot]

National Debt on a downward trend by Midterms 2026.

[Gaius]

@7426k

The FY2024 budget year saw the US federal government spend a total of approximately 6.75T dollars. The deficit was 1.8T. Now obviously the FY2025 budget will come in at pretty similar levels since much of it will be over before any new administration cuts from DOGE and others can be applied.

So by FY2026 what do you actually think the total US federal spending will be? Will the right and DOGE meet these claims of cutting a trillion (5.75T) or more? Or will the 2026 budget actually spend more than FY2024? Or somewhere in between?

And what do you guys the deficit will be in 2026? Will it be lower or higher than 1.8T?

Hmm let’s see . . .
I believe you’re saying
FY 2024 = $6.75T
FY 2025 ~ $6.75T

And asking about 2026 saying that
DOGE claims 2026=$5.75T

I will bet the over on all of those!
FY 2026> $6.75T

[Gaius]

According to Forbes:

Below is a chart of total government spending (federal, state and local) as a share of GDP, going all the way back to 1929, the first year for which Bureau of Economic Analysis Data are available. This chart shows that government spending in 2010 was as high as it’s ever been as a share of the economy, 36.2 percent, slightly outstripping the previous high water mark of 35.3 percent reached in 1945, during World War II. . . .

Lessons From the Decades Long Upward March of Government Spending

Those other generations were dumb.
They spent way too little.

[GrandWazoo]

I think it will remain about the same. DOGE is a good idea until it starts taking away stuff from districts. Then you are going to see a bunch of Congressmen and Senators fight to retain the stuff for their Constituents.

[Gaius]

This is a federal budget pie chart from 2022
Note the term “madatory” refers to giveaways. (transfer payments)
EXs SS, welfare.

These programs are not truly “madatory” congress passed a law to create them and congress can pass a law to reduce/eliminate them.

People, incl. conservatives, call them "mandatory: because the word police have insisted on that word.

Point being we can fire 100% of the fedealworkforce including the military and they will still exist. I am not sure DOGE is even addressing them.

[7426k]

The term “mandatory” in spending terms is one of my biggest pet peeves. No government spending is mandatory. The budget deficit is high enough that you can cut all so-called “discretionary” spending and still not balance the budget. That leaves SS, Medicare, Medicaid and some small trusts…

Whatever the “appropriate” level of government spending, no amount of DOGE-ing can change that, and no amount of DOGE influence is going to make meaningful cuts to the “mandatory” budget lines. I suspect economic growth is about the only thing that will bring that budget towards balance.

[Gaius]

@7426k

The term “mandatory” in spending terms is one of my biggest pet peeves. No government spending is mandatory. The budget deficit is high enough that you can cut all so-called “discretionary” spending and still not balance the budget. That leaves SS, Medicare, Medicaid and some small trusts…

Whatever the “appropriate” level of government spending, no amount of DOGE-ing can change that, and no amount of DOGE influence is going to make meaningful cuts to the “mandatory” budget lines. I suspect economic growth is about the only thing that will bring that budget towards balance.

100% correct.
“Mandatory” spending is a (deliberate) misnomer.
-and-
I like DOGE, but I don’t think it is going to impact spending in a substantial way

[peek-a-boo]

I predict 2026 budget will actually spend more than FY2024. If it were simply up to Trump, things would likely be different. But with one of the slimmest House majorities in our history, Trump won’t be able to get his way. IMHO