The above map was initialized earlier this morning. The center of circulation has now moved to a point ESE of Melbourne Florida.
The system is expected to become Subtropical Depression 1 later today and likely Subtropical Storm Arthur shortly thereafter.
For Florida and The Bahamas, this will be a rain event only. It is possible that this system could brush the Eastern Banks of North Carolina as a minimal Tropical Storm and also affect Bermuda as a minimal Tropical Storm, but the damage potential from this system is minimal.
Tropical Storm Bertha came and went this morning. Formed off the coast of Charleston, South Carolina and immediately went inland and has since degraded to a Tropical Depression. Maxed out at 50 mph just prior to landfall. Looks like it will turn straight north and pass not to far to the east of me, over Winston-Salem and Greensboro.
Should give us a bit of rain
Notable as the second pre-season Atlantic tropical system.
Tropical Storm Cristobal formed from Tropical Depression 3 this evening. Very weak tropical system. I would not put too much stock in any forecast path or intensity beyond 24 hours at this point, as the models remain all over the place. And a good chance this system could be torn apart over the Yucatan Peninsula.
If it survives to make it into the open Gulf of Mexico, landfall anywhere from Pensacola, Florida to Galveston, Texas is possible. Little chance it makes it to Hurricane force.
Around 2011, there was Hurricane Irene coming up the Atlantic Coast. There were special announcements on the radio that could only be described as hysterical, pressure to evacuate the barrier islands, “meteorologists” who warned that this could be “a big one.” Meanwhile, callers to local radio who would best be described as the “old salts”, locals who had lived on the barrier islands forever, spent a lot of time on their boats, professional fishermen, all said it would be nothing more than a rain event because the ocean temp hadn’t reached 70 degrees. The old salts were right.
A Tropical Storm Watch is up from mid Louisiana to the Perdido River (Alabama/Florida line).
Looks like this system is reorganizing and tightening, even though it will be over land for several more hours, but looks like it will survive to make it to open water. It remains a Tropical Depression at this time, but will regain Tropical Storm status over open water. Max winds at United States landfall should be 60 mph at most.
Here is the NHC’s new experimental storm surge graphic.
Due to other priorities, my only vacation this summer is a four day trip to Miami the middle of this month. The beaches must be opened by then and no Hurricane’s/ tropical storms are permitted until I depart.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Likely will become either Tropical Depression 9 or Tropical Storm Isaias sometime this evening or tonight, more likely will form directly into a Tropical Storm. Its winds are actually at Tropical Storm strength, but its circulation has not closed yet, so it does not currently meet the criteria to be a Tropical or Subtropical system.
The models are in convergence until the storm reaches the southeast Bahamas, then they diverge, with some taking the storm in to the Gulf, some taking right up the Florida peninsula and some taking out into the Atlantic.
Intensity models are in convergence. It should be a mid strength Tropical Storm (60 mph winds) if and when it hits Florida.
The system has intensified and become better organized today. However, it still does not have a closed circulation, so it is still labeled at Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. The consensus models have shifted to the west and so has the official forecast track above. Intensity models have actually declined and this system is now forecast to remain a fairly weak Tropical Storm at best.