2020 Tropical Weather Thread

Looks like the 2020 Hurricane Season will be starting about two weeks early.

The above map was initialized earlier this morning. The center of circulation has now moved to a point ESE of Melbourne Florida.

The system is expected to become Subtropical Depression 1 later today and likely Subtropical Storm Arthur shortly thereafter.

For Florida and The Bahamas, this will be a rain event only. It is possible that this system could brush the Eastern Banks of North Carolina as a minimal Tropical Storm and also affect Bermuda as a minimal Tropical Storm, but the damage potential from this system is minimal.

Tropical Depression 1 formed a short while ago.

A Tropical Storm Watch is up for the Eastern Banks of North Carolina.

And we officially have our first named system of the season, Tropical Storm Arthur.

11:00 PM EDT Sat May 16
Location: 29.4°N 77.7°W
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020

NOAA has released the 2020 season predictions.

13 to 19 named storms.

10 to 16 hurricanes

3 to 6 major hurricanes.

We have already had our first named system, Arthur, which has come and gone.

Currently the Atlantic Basin, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are completely quiet and free of any potential developing systems or features.

Tropical Storm Bertha came and went this morning. Formed off the coast of Charleston, South Carolina and immediately went inland and has since degraded to a Tropical Depression. Maxed out at 50 mph just prior to landfall. Looks like it will turn straight north and pass not to far to the east of me, over Winston-Salem and Greensboro.

Should give us a bit of rain

Notable as the second pre-season Atlantic tropical system.

Today begins the Atlantic Tropical Storm Season, which will continue until November 30.

Tropical Depression 3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche, from the remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda.

Model are all over the place with this system, both as to projected path and projected intensity.

Best guess is that this will form into Tropical Storm Cristobal, but otherwise will remain at minimal strength for the near future.

Tropical Storm Cristobal formed from Tropical Depression 3 this evening. Very weak tropical system. I would not put too much stock in any forecast path or intensity beyond 24 hours at this point, as the models remain all over the place. And a good chance this system could be torn apart over the Yucatan Peninsula.

If it survives to make it into the open Gulf of Mexico, landfall anywhere from Pensacola, Florida to Galveston, Texas is possible. Little chance it makes it to Hurricane force.

Sometimes I think about hurricanes in a nostalgic way.

I lived in Palm Beach County from May 2003 until December 2005 - as a renter. I’d probably feel differently if I’d had a lobotomy and decided to buy real estate in Florida around then.

Around 2011, there was Hurricane Irene coming up the Atlantic Coast. There were special announcements on the radio that could only be described as hysterical, pressure to evacuate the barrier islands, “meteorologists” who warned that this could be “a big one.” Meanwhile, callers to local radio who would best be described as the “old salts”, locals who had lived on the barrier islands forever, spent a lot of time on their boats, professional fishermen, all said it would be nothing more than a rain event because the ocean temp hadn’t reached 70 degrees. The old salts were right.

Cristobal is still poking around the Yucatan Peninsula as a Tropical Depression.

Still a question as to whether it survives to make it back over open water.

A Tropical Storm Watch is up from mid Louisiana to the Perdido River (Alabama/Florida line).

Looks like this system is reorganizing and tightening, even though it will be over land for several more hours, but looks like it will survive to make it to open water. It remains a Tropical Depression at this time, but will regain Tropical Storm status over open water. Max winds at United States landfall should be 60 mph at most.

Here is the NHC’s new experimental storm surge graphic.

Oh boy, another tropical rainstorm in Missouri. We love it when it rains just about nonstop for three years in a row. lol

Due to other priorities, my only vacation this summer is a four day trip to Miami the middle of this month. The beaches must be opened by then and no Hurricane’s/ tropical storms are permitted until I depart. :triumph:

Vacation and Miami should not exist in the same sentence, other than this sentence describing that fact. :smile:

Miami is a place I avoid unless I have a pressing business related need to be there. :smile:

Bertha brought heavy rains when it passed by western North Carolina, so I have already had my first tropical experience of the season.

Okay. Give me a list of you favorite vacation places and I will only go there. You might as well tell me what beer to drink as well. :roll_eyes:

Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning?

I was being funny.

Sheesh.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Likely will become either Tropical Depression 9 or Tropical Storm Isaias sometime this evening or tonight, more likely will form directly into a Tropical Storm. Its winds are actually at Tropical Storm strength, but its circulation has not closed yet, so it does not currently meet the criteria to be a Tropical or Subtropical system.

The models are in convergence until the storm reaches the southeast Bahamas, then they diverge, with some taking the storm in to the Gulf, some taking right up the Florida peninsula and some taking out into the Atlantic.

Intensity models are in convergence. It should be a mid strength Tropical Storm (60 mph winds) if and when it hits Florida.

The system has intensified and become better organized today. However, it still does not have a closed circulation, so it is still labeled at Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. The consensus models have shifted to the west and so has the official forecast track above. Intensity models have actually declined and this system is now forecast to remain a fairly weak Tropical Storm at best.